Election Predictions Thread 2012

Joe reminds me that we didn’t have a catch-all prediction thread for the 2012 election for all independent and alternative party candidates.

Well, here it is.

Post your predictions for any and all of those candidates at all levels and in all states and jurisdictions in the comments. Some predictions about Democrats and Republicans may be OK too, but please keep the focus mainly on alternative parties and independents.

68 thoughts on “Election Predictions Thread 2012

  1. Thomas L. Knapp

    Johnson: 700k (but it won’t hurt my feelings if I am on the low side).

    Stein: 250-300k.

    Goode: Less than 150k, probably less than 100k.

    All other third party and independent: Less than 50k combined.

    Electoral College Outcome: Worst case for Obama , he wins 290-248. Best case for Obama, he wins 334-204 (by picking up Florida and North Carolina — unlikely, but he might pick up Florida and Virginia for 332-206).

  2. Curt Boyd

    Gary Johnson – 500k to 800k
    Jill Stein – 100k to 300k
    Virgil Goode – 50k to 75k
    Rocky Anderson – 20k
    Everyone else – 40k

    I think Johnson, Stein, Goode and Anderson are strong candidates, but Goode has had trouble with ballot access. Anderson has done well considering he started the Justice Party less than a year ago.

    Roseanne Barr may get a good number of votes, just because of her name.

    Johnson has a good chance of getting 1%, but I’d say if he gets a million votes, his campaign is successful.

    If Stein gets 500,000 votes, I’d say her campaign is successful. I think Greens are very excited about her as a candidate.

  3. Curt Boyd

    Oh, and Obama wins 347-191 by taking FL, NH, CO, PA, OH and IA. The popular vote will be close in some states, but I think people will turn out for Obama, pushing him over the top.

  4. Nick

    Barack Obama will win a second term
    Mitt Romney will come close but lose Ohio
    Johnson will come in third
    The Green Party candidate fourth
    Virgil Goode Fifth

    Out of the others, Reform Party will probably pick up 1,000 votes or so based on having a better organization then last time around, plus ballot access in Florida and write in status in 17 states. This will be better then the last election. It’ll be a far cry for 1996 or 2004.

    American Independent Party might do better then last time, but they won’t pick up many do to lack of recognition and little ballot access.

    From there out, I don’t know.

  5. JohnJeremyVines

    1) Obama, with over 400 electoral votes.
    2) Romney
    3) Ron Paul, with a handful of faithless electors opting for him over Mittens.
    4) Gary Johnson, receiving roughly a quarter-million votes.
    5) All others combined, again, receiving roughly a quarter-million votes.

  6. Trent Hill

    1.) Obama wins.
    2.) Johnson gets 900,000+ votes. Perhaps as much as 1.1million.
    3.) Stein between 200-350k
    4.) Goode scores 200k+
    5.) Anderson/Barr total up to about 150k.
    6.) Barrie in NM gets 6-8%.
    7.) Tom Hoefling gets less than 30k votes nationwide.

    Best state for Johnson: NM. Best state for Goode: Utah. I could see Stein’s best state being Maine, Massachusetts, or Oregon.

    The big question to me is where does Nader’s 700k+ votes go to from 2008? I think most of them disperse between various left-wingers and Obama.

  7. Trent Hill

    “4) Gary Johnson, receiving roughly a quarter-million votes.”

    Wanna make a bet? I’ll do an over-under on 450k with you.

  8. Jill Pyeatt

    LOL–I just came to IPR to post that picture about the crying girl on an open thread for November. Funny, Paulie, that we had kind of the same idea–

  9. paulie Post author

    It should definitely go in the November open thread article. No doubt, it sums up how many of us feel right now perfectly.

  10. zapper

    Obama wins with 300+ Electoral Votes. Depending primarily on FL could be up to 332.

    Ron Paul gets 2 or 3 EV.

    Gary Johnson beats Clark 1980 vote totals @ about 1%. Likely slightly below Clark’s %.

    Republicans keep the House, fail to take the Senate. Little changes in DC.

    A surprising new electoral reform movement appears by early 2013.

  11. Jill Pyeatt

    I’m feeling optimistic, and I like round numbers, so I’ll predict 1,000,000 votes for Johnson. I don’t think Romney will win without some kind of vote machuine-fanagling, but since I think that might be what happened in 2004 to re-elect war criminal Dubya, I won’t assume it won’t happen here.

  12. Guest

    My predictions:

    Johnson: He’ll have the best showing of a Libertarian Party candidate, but probably won’t get close to his goal of 5% of the vote.

    Stein: 200-300k votes, making her the best showing Green since Nader.

    Goode: 200k or more, making him the best showing of a Constitution Party candidate ever.

    Barr: 50-100K votes.

  13. Trent Hill

    @16, why do you say that? I’m not familiar with the race.

    “Where do we have the best chance of seeing a down-ballot third-party/Independent upset?”

    I think there are a few races where Progressives, Independents, and such are expected to win. As for surprises? I don’t really know of any that are at all likely.

  14. JamesT

    Obama wins

    Johnson 1.2m
    Stein 300K
    Goode 85K
    Anderson 25K
    Hoefliing 40K
    Barr 70K
    Merlin Miller 666

  15. Robert Capozzi

    I really don’t do predictions, but I assume BHO is re-elected, although NY and NJ are much closer than expected due to Sandy and turnout being low in those places.

    GJ has earned 1+MM votes or (much) more, but these times make voters less likely than usual to think out of the box.

    Rs keep the House, blow their chance at the Senate, scoring the ultimate own-goal by now carving out the rape exception on abortion. Somehow, the Rs are so dense they don’t realize that this litmus test and their inability to see that the demographics are trending away from them that they keep the social con millstone for the next cycle, too.

  16. Kyle Kneale

    Too close to call who wins, if I had to pick I’d say Obama wins b/c of Ohio.

    Johnson: 775k-950k
    Stein: 225k
    Goode: 150-175k
    Barr: 50-75k
    Anderson: 25-40k
    Socialists get 20-25k

    Barr beats Anderson based on name recognition/being on the ballot in CA

    Johnson will get 1% plus in NM, AZ, and CO.

  17. Kyle Kneale

    Close to home for me in KS, Joel Balam will get 15-25% of the vote in the KS-3 U.S. Rep race as a Libertarian (no Democrat is running).

  18. Larry West

    Here are my predictions:
    1. Obama wins the electoral vote — Romney wins the popular vote. The Republicans won’t complain as much of Obama “stealing” the election as Democrats did in 2000, but they’ll still complain.
    2. Johnson will get about 800,000 votes — higher than previous years, but not as high as 1980.
    3. Stein will get 120,000 votes.
    3. Goode will come in fifth with 80,000 votes.
    4. Anderson will come in sixth with 55,000 votes.
    5. Barr will get 50,000 votes, mostly from name recognition. Having Cindy Sheehan as VP will cost her votes, because most people know Barr as a “domestic goddess” comedian, and not as a liberal activist.
    6. Hoefling will get about 20,000 votes, mostly from California.
    Everyone else combined gets 40,000, with 300 votes for Santa Claus, who is a write-in in MD, MT, and WV.

    Republicans will keep the House, Democrats the Senate. Angus King will win Maine, but you can’t call that a “third-party upset” even though the seat is currently nominally Republican.

    I wish I could predict a real third-party upset somewhere, but I don’t see it. The only local possibility I see is Henry Owens III (whose party’s label is “Descendents of American Slaves”) defeating Tom Riner in Kentucky’s 41st house district. The district is mostly black and liberal, and the incumbent Riner is white and conservative. The Republicans usually don’t put up a candidate against him.

  19. George Phillies

    Obama gets +2 to +4% and 300-350 electoral votes, tending toward the latter.

    The Senate breaks even, or the Democrats gain but not more than three seats.

    The Democrats gain in the House, but not a lot, perhaps 10 seats.

    If you want a third party upset, wait for elections in Southern Europe, e.g., 5 Star or Golden Dawn or Syriza parties.

    In the USA there is some likelihood of a legislative seat in SC in addition to the seats mentioned above.

  20. DanBombadil

    Less than 2 million people voted third party in 2008. I’ll offhandedly predict there’s a million more this year, and that around 60% of that ~3 million will be Gary Johnson votes.

    So Johnson 1.8 million
    Stein 300k
    Ron Paul write-ins 50k
    Anderson 50k
    Barr 50k
    Goode 30k

  21. Joe

    Is there a connection between fundraising (both dollars and ** number of donors **) and vote totals?

    Today’s landing page for http://www.garyjohnson2012.com reports:

    “$1,014,660.17 raised from 12,029 donors”

    I’m going to go with a prediction of about 1 and 1/2 votes per dollar donated on this page, and about 1 and 1/2 percent of Johnson/Gray voters being prior donors, and that those numbers will go up a bit over the next four days so . . .

    1,776,000 votes for Johnson/Gray

    (Okay, in the end I went for numerical symbolism) . . .

  22. Nick Kruse

    Obama wins electoral vote in a landslide, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Romney won the popular vote.

    Democrats get an additional seat or two in the U.S. Senate.

    Gary Johnson gets about 0.9% of the vote.

  23. Trent Hill

    “3. Goode will come in fifth with 80,000 votes.”

    @LarryWest — wanna place a wager?

    “Goode 30k”

    @DanBombadil — same, want to place a wager on this?

  24. Trent Hill

    Ah, now Nicholas’ example has reminded me of one. Very similar too. The CP candidate for Sheriff of Marion County, FLA, is Bernie DeCastro–he’s facing an opponent whose name is not even on the ballot. The opposing name that IS on the ballot resigned from the campaign in disgrace. Very similar situation.

    Hopefully both LP and CP donors are pouring their money in there.

  25. Trent Hill

    It strikes me as odd that either party doesn’t REALLY emphasize those races and race money that way. I know many third party donors are weary of giving money for general party expenses–but if they see a real shot at winning a race they will often go the extra mile.

  26. Stuart Simms

    EV will be in a fairly tight range. Romney baseline is 191 (McCain 173 + 7 from reapportionment + 11 Indiana). I also think R/R will carry FL and NC (+44) for a Romney minimum of 235 and likely VA (+13=248). In my view Obama minimum is 223 (blue states from RealClearPolitics + NV and MI) and likely PA (+20=243).
    Romney EV range 235 – 315
    Obama EV range 303 – 223
    I give the edge to Romney for both PopV and EV.
    Johnson 1.5M-2.0M
    Stein 200k-300k
    Goode 150k-200k
    Anderson, Barr, Hoefling <50k each

    House: Dems net gain 5 to 8 seats
    Senate: Reps net gain 0 to 2 seats

  27. PeterO

    New Zogby national poll:

    Obama 46.6%
    Romney 45.5%
    Johnson 1.7%
    Goode 0.8%
    Stein 0.5%
    Undecided 4.9%.

    In six Zogby tracking polls since mid-October, Johnson has ranged from 1.7% to 3.1%, Goode 0.2% to 0.8%, and Stein 0.5% to 1.1%.

  28. George Whitfield

    About a month ago I did a calculation based on where Bob Barr’s polling numbers were in 2008 versus where Gary Johnson’s polling numbers were and then figured what Johnson would receive on election day if his results dropped at the same percentage that Barr’s did. Based ib that I predict Johnson will receive 1.08% of the popular vote and barely set a new record over Ed Clark’s 1.06%. And I predict Johnson’s popular vote will be 1,450,000.

  29. Joe Buchman

    George @ 37,

    We don’t seem to be suffering the same rate of drop (based on media requests, telephone contacts, donations, etc.) that the Barr/Root campaign did. Jim and Gary are both out there this weekend working far harder, IMO than our 2008 ticket.

    I’d suggest a flatter, if not completely flat, projection might be worth considering.

    For example if we experience only 2/3rds the drop rate, I’d be curious to know what your calculations would show?

    Joe

  30. Matt Cholko

    A big problem for the LP is our lack of an effective GOTV program. Ds and Rs identify their voters in the months prior to the election, then have volunteers call them on election day, offer them rides, and/or do whatever else is necessary to get them to come out and vote. We don’t. Consequently, we always do considerably worse than polls suggest.

  31. Trent Hill

    If Goode gets .80%, it’ll be by far the largest numbers the CP has received. But I suspect that’s not in the cards. .25% would be a welcome development for the CP, I imagine.

  32. FAN of Dr. STAN

    Why should the Ds and Rs give the alternatives all their votes? Have the A’s ever checked the count? NO

    Alternative Parties need to watch the largest precincts in as many counties as possible. I say the largest as that can be done with the numbers availiable and that’s where the votes are located. Actually watch the count of these large precincts and record each alternatives vote totals as well as the Ds and Rs and phone them into the different Alternative Party HQs.

    This would help to keep these people honest. I think we all would be shocked by the results. Just announcing our intentions would create a more honest tabulation for all alternative choices!

    For any of you who thinks all these elections and election officials are honest, you are a naive soul !

    1. Obama
    2.Rmoney
    3.Johnson
    4.Stein
    5.Goode
    6.Anderson
    7.Barr
    8.Doesn’t matter much anyway…..

    A Johnson third place finish will equal the best LP finish ever in the POTUS race. Clark, Browne or even Bob Barr didn’t finish third. Without any TV ads to compete with, the Clark numbers may still be out of reach. A fifth place for Goode will be the best ever for the CP , however I don’t think Goode will reach anywhere near the Baldwin vote total. Anderson (experience matters) is a much better candidate than Stein but doesn’t have the Ballot Access needed! Why isn’t Roseann the GP VP candidate ? Was there some type of problem between Stein and Barr at the convention or what?

  33. Nicholas Sarwark

    @33 – There’s a balance to strike between raising enough money to have a shot at success and raising too much money to the point that the old party starts putting their vastly superior resources to work.

    I lean to the former over the latter.

  34. ATBAFT

    With sadness, I’ll predict Johnson at 750,000.
    Unless and until the LP can raise and spend $10mm and more on advertising, and get our candidate on the Sunday interview shows, the presidential vote totals won’t break 1,000,000. Priority #1 should be grassroots growth and if there’s to be a presidential campaign, its main purpose should be to
    do that.

  35. Stephen VanDyke - HAMMER OF TRUTH

    Romney wins.

    Johnson breaks 1M, barely. Gets credit for handing wins to Romney in Colorado and possibly Ohio. Time for democrats to hate libertarians.

    Amendment 64 passes in Colorado with surprisingly strong republican support. Battle lines drawn for 10th amendment showdown with federal government.

  36. Fred Church Ortiz

    Romney wins popular vote, Obama wins electoral. No defecting electors. Amendment to elect the president directly finally makes it out of Congress, and languishes for years.

    Ohio goes to Obama with Johnson doing better than the difference, and GOP redoubles ballot restriction efforts.

    Johnson sets a new LP record, but none of this 5% business, except perhaps 4-5% in NM.

    Barr beats Stein beats Anderson, wherever any two or three are on the ballot. Stein beats Barr nationwide, but doesn’t do as well as McKinney.

    California keeps the death penalty and lightens up 3 strikes. Both major tax hikes fail.

    Puerto Rico votes to stay a territory on Question 1. Statehood wins Question 2 within a couple thousand votes of 50%. Mixed result leads to a higher-stakes do-over in 2 years.

  37. Jill Pyeatt

    At this point, I expect the GMO labeling proposition in CA to lose, the human trafficing to pass, and the stupid car insurance “discount” proposition to pass. I agree with Fred that both tax hikes “for education” will fail.

  38. Darryl W. Perry

    The only polling done for my race was from a totally unscientific strawpoll from a candidates forum 3 weeks ago, I won that strawpoll.
    I don’t want to make any predictions of my vote total; however, I’d like to have a vote percentage higher than the margin of victory.

    I predict Babiarz gets 2.5% – which is lower than the 4% needed for the LP to retain ballot access.
    Both LP Congressional candidates in NH will get between 2-4%

  39. Andy

    “A Johnson third place finish will equal the best LP finish ever in the POTUS race. Clark, Browne or even Bob Barr didn’t finish third.”

    Ron Paul finished in 3rd place as the Libertarian Party’s candidate for President in 1988. He received 400 and something thousand votes.

    I’m predicting that Gary Johnson will have a stronger 3rd place in terms of number of votes and percent of the vote than Ron Paul had in 1988. This is not because I think that Gary Johnson is a better candidate than Ron Paul, but rather because he’s on more ballots than Ron Paul was, plus he’s got the advantage of having the internet as a means of publicizing his message.

    Another factor here is that I think that Ron Paul’s main competition for 3rd place, Lenora Fulani of the New Alliance Party, was on the ballot in more states than Gary Johnson’s main competition for 3rd place, Jill Stein of the Green Party, is.

  40. Andy

    “Trent Hill // Nov 2, 2012 at 1:51 am

    If Goode gets .80%, it’ll be by far the largest numbers the CP has received. But I suspect that’s not in the cards. .25% would be a welcome development for the CP, I imagine.”

    My prediction is that the Constitution Party is going to have a lower vote total this time than they had with Chuck Baldwin 4 years ago. It could be really bad, as in less than 100,000 votes.

  41. Brian Holtz

    Obama wins handily.

    Johnson gets 650K or 0.5%, whichever is higher.

    I get re-elected to my water board, coming in 3rd of 4 but comfortably ahead of the young Ron Paul candidate who unfortunately put “campaign consultant” on the ballot as his occupation.

  42. Trent Hill

    “My prediction is that the Constitution Party is going to have a lower vote total this time than they had with Chuck Baldwin 4 years ago. It could be really bad, as in less than 100,000 votes.”

    Won’t happen.

  43. Thane Eichenauer

    Whitney M. Young magnet high school in Chicago, IL has a presidential poll on their home page with the following results:
    Barack Obama 68.25%
    Mitt Romney 11.90%
    Jill Stein 2.38%
    Gary Johnson 14.28%
    Rocky Anderson 0%
    Roseanne Barr 1.58%
    James Harris (Socialist Workers Party) 0%
    Virgil Goode 0%
    Merlin Miller (ATP) 0%
    Lowell “Jack” Fellure (Prohibition Party) 1.58%

    (the page includes all party labels which I have omitted in part for the sake of briefness)
    http://www.wyoung.org/

  44. Pingback: 2012 election results · Hammer of Truth

  45. Andy

    Here are my late (but not too late) predictions:

    1) Gary Johnson will receive the 2nd highest vote total in terms of both number of votes and percent of the vote in Libertarian Party history. Although I’ve been critical of some of Johnson’s views, I actually wouldn’t mind seeing him beat Ed Clark’s vote total from 1980, but unfortunately I just don’t see enough momentum for it to happen. I do think that Gary Johnson has a good chance of getting over 700,000 votes. He may even break 750,000 or even 800,000 or more votes. Even if he does better than I’m expecting by getting more numeric votes than Ed Clark, I doubt that he’s going to beat Ed Clark in terms of percent of the vote. The population has grown a lot since 1980, so he’d have to get quite a few more votes than Ed Clark in order to get a higher percent of the vote.

    Part of Johnson’s vote total is going to come from how much of the protest vote is he going to get (as in votes from people who are looking for anyone else to vote for other than Obama or Romney), how many people are actually going to cast protest votes, how many Ron Paul supporters are going to go to the polls and vote for Gary Johnson, and are we actually going to get an accurate (or at least close to accurate) count of Gary Johnson’s votes.

    2) Jill Stein will get more votes than Cynthia McKinney. Jill Stein isn’t as big a name as Cynthia McKinney, but her campaign is better organized and she’s on the ballot in more states than McKinney was. I going to say that Jill Stein gets more than 200,000 votes.

    3) Virgil Goode is not going to get a good vote total (even by Constitution Party standards). I doubt that he’ll break 100,000 votes, and even if he does I don’t think that it’s going to be by much. He’s only on the ballot in enough states to where like 47% of the population will even have him as a choice on their ballot. His campaign hasn’t raised much money and I just don’t see much support for him. I think that he’ll likely come in behind Gary Johnson and Jill Stein in every state where he is on the ballot with them.

    4) Who’s going to win between Obama and Romney? I’m inclined to say who cares, but just for fun I’ll make a prediction. I was going to say Obama at first, but then I was thinking that it was looking like Romney, but given what I’ve heard over the past few days I’m back to thinking that it’s going to be Obama again.

    5) Who is going to lose in this election? The ultimate losers are we the regular American people, because we are royally screwed whether it is jackass Obama or jackass Romney.

  46. JohnJeremyVines

    Okay, looks like I was wrong on at least a couple of counts:
    Obama won’t be receiving 400+ electoral votes
    Gary Johnson is already well over a quarter-million with the polls not even closed on the West Coast yet.
    I’ll have to wait until the Electoral College meets to see if Ron Paul takes third.

  47. Andy

    Two things that Gary Johnson has going for him in this election:

    1) He’s the top 3rd party candidates in terms of name recognition and money (no Ralph Nader, no Pat Buchanan, and no Ross Perot like in past elections), and he’s on the ballot in more places than any other 3rd party candidate by quite a few states.

    2) Gary Johnson hasn’t alienated as much of the libertarian base as Bob Barr did. I’m expecting Gary Johnson to pull in a lot more Ron Paul supporters than who voted for the LP’s ticket in 2008.

  48. Andy

    I just found this on Wikipedia: “Clark received 921,128 votes (1.06% of the total nationwide);[12] the highest number and percentage of popular votes a Libertarian Party candidate has ever received in a presidential race.”

    I would imagine that Gary Johnson will have to get quite a bit more than 921,128 votes to have a higher percentage of the vote than Ed Clark got due to the increase in population since 1980.

    It looks like Gary Johnson is within striking distance of the vote total, but percent of the vote is going to be a more difficult landmark to pass.

    Ed Clark had the benefit of having a very wealthy VP candidate in David Koch putting a few million dollars into the campaign, which adjusted for inflation, is a lot more money than the Gary Johnson campaign has raised.

    One advantage that Gary Johnson has over Ed Clark is that Gary Johnson does not have to compete against a more well known 3rd party candidate like Ed Clark did with John Anderson.

  49. zapper

    So far it’s turning out exactly as I called it. We will have to wait and see on the Ron Paul electoral votes.

    Had the Johnson campaign adopted the Zapper media plan in late May they could have beaten the 5% nationwide they were shooting for.

    prediction from above:

    “zapper // Nov 1, 2012 at 2:04 pm

    Obama wins with 300+ Electoral Votes. Depending primarily on FL could be up to 332.

    Ron Paul gets 2 or 3 EV.

    Gary Johnson beats Clark 1980 vote totals @ about 1%. Likely slightly below Clark’s %.

    Republicans keep the House, fail to take the Senate. Little changes in DC.

    A surprising new electoral reform movement appears by early 2013.”

  50. paulie Post author

    “zapper // Nov 1, 2012 at 2:04 pm

    Obama wins with 300+ Electoral Votes. Depending primarily on FL could be up to 332.

    Ron Paul gets 2 or 3 EV.

    Gary Johnson beats Clark 1980 vote totals @ about 1%. Likely slightly below Clark’s %.

    Republicans keep the House, fail to take the Senate. Little changes in DC.

    A surprising new electoral reform movement appears by early 2013.”

    Nicely done!

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