http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zh4dU9QNPU8
The latest clip on youtube fro Gary Johnson, Libertarian for President, comes with the following description:
Republicans are Thelma. The Democrats are Louise. Together they are taking our nation over a cliff. We have a President and a majority in Congress who insist on endless war. But a majority of Americans are insisting on Peace. As our President, Gary Johnson will end the wars and bring our men and women home — where we will rebuild and renew our broken nation together. We the People will have PEACE. Demand it. Donate to it. Elect it. Protect it. The fight for our liberty never ends.
Also on Gary Johnson’s blog: Tuesday Night: Town Hall with Governor Gary Johnson & Special Guest Lee Wrights Tuesday, May 22, 2012 6:00 p.m. PT/ 7:00 p.m. MT/ 8:00 p.m. CT/ 9:00 p.m.
What are the major points of difficulty in NM ballot access laws? Just curious.
Deadlines? Access for Congressional candidates? Other requirements beyond the 5%? (5% is always tough to hit for a 3rd Party and especially difficult to maintain on an ongoing basis.)
Paulie: Good luck with that. You may want to take a closer look at NM ballot access laws.
Me: What about the ballot access laws? It is 5% percent for major party status.
Good luck with that. You may want to take a closer look at NM ballot access laws.
Excellent!
Let the other polls know.
Remember to be polite.
Zogby states they will now include Gary Johnson in their polls. Okay time for the other pollsters to add GJ.
http://newmexico.watchdog.org/13603/polling-organizations-starting-to-include-gary-johnson-in-presidential-surveys/
Zapper, you should run for LNC next time around. You have a much better campaign strategy than the people on it now.
One state that we really need to focus on is New Mexico. Public Policy Polling already has Gary Johnson at 15% there. Getting that number even higher will draw all sorts of media attention. We also need to have a full slate of congressional and state candidates in New Mexico to capitalize on Johnson’s polling numbers there. 5% of the vote is needed in New Mexico to secure major party status for the next elections, which seems entirely doable since the Libertarian nominee is their former governor.
Yes, the hurdle for TV is many times higher, both for production costs, placement, and media buying staff time. Don’t hit the hurdle and zero impressions register. Higher reward risks can sound good on paper, but going dark as the days and weeks roll by seems contra-indicated.
Here’s the zapper quick rule of thumb:
” zapper // May 20, 2012 at 12:33 pm
@60 It’s still the same problem.
If we are trying for 1%, we still need to saturate a market with enough ads to have an impact on the voters.
We can run our ads in a couple of flights, such as 5 cents per capita early and 5cents per capita later, but we need to spend 10 cents per capita to have an impact. ”
So, NM has 2.1 million people means we need a out $105,000 for advertising.
@125 GP
My minimum estimate for the cost of saturation advertising on major network TV in New Mexico on the first flight of early POTUS ads is $105,000.
How much did they spend in 2004?
Also, something similar was tried in New Mexico in 2004, and it had almost no effect.
We have heard this bit about TV ads many times before. Except in 1980, no such thing happened.
@121 Of course, GP. Thanks for joining in. That’s why we have to target smaller states.
We can have the same effect of a $32 million nationwide campaign for about $250,000 in 7 small states, depending on the states chosen. Results in these states earn free media that helps lift the rest.
$250,000 nationwide (or in a small number of the largest cities or states) is like a handful of sand in the ocean – it disappears unseen.
The targeting we need to do now is specific to the Johnson campaign and 2012. Although many of the same elements apply, what we need to do in 2013, 2014, 2015, and early 2016 before the 2016 LP POTUS campaign would be strategically different in several respects.
We should still do targeted major network TV. However, we could do slightly smaller flights since the competition for political attention can be timed to suit our purposes and can avoid big outlays and competition for attention by the other parties.
In addition to key small states, the LNC would take a greater look at ballot status races in off years, where an early year boost could make the difference. (The close to ballot status race in 2010 for Governor in New York is a case in point.)
The LNC should be budgeting for targeted major network TV in selected key states. The targets should be chosen and fundraising done with at least some sample ads made in advance and 100% of funds raised guaranteed to be used to buy flights on major network TV in target states.
The LNC needs to make targeted advertising, along with ballot drives and all other administration, the three major essential and equal categories of expenditure for the LNC budget … 1/3 for each … preferably even less for office and admin.
We have had a series of Presidential campaigns since the FEC opened the books of candidates. Post-nomination, a Libertarian Presidential candidate raise one or one and a half million dollars. Inflation and increasing personal wealth are gradually pushing these numbers upward. Ten or thirty-two million dollars appears entirely unreasonable, in my opinion.
@118 We cannot buy enough media to get to 2% of the vote nationwide. We still don’t have enough money to advertise in a single big state and get to 2%.
Getting to 2% in the fall would still rely on earning leveraged free media.
That still requires doing someting big in a small venue.
And that still means targeting smaller states.
@114 RC
I don’t reject the idea of reaching 15% for GJ nationwide. I think it very unlikely, however.
Still, shooting for 15% and maximizing the results of the campaign go hand in hand, so it’s not a matter of choosing.
We cannot buy our way to 15% in early polls nationwide. We would need millions of dollars – my rule of thumb calculation is $32,000,000 in advertising nationwide to get enough attention by purchasing ads. This would allow nationwide TV, targeted local TV on top, some cable and targeted radio in targeted markets. NO chance of that kind of money (except by some suddently motivated billionaire through a super-PAC.)
But, we can target (about 7, maybe more) smaller states and get them up in the polls. If we buy the spots – early, meaning this summer, well before the fall debates – we have a shot at free media to bring those states up to 15%.
Indications from the media are that if the LP candidate can actually get such poll results in a few states, we will earn significantly more free media – nationwide – which leverages our expenditures in these small states. This nationwide free media is what it will take to get to 15% nationwide.
We cannot BUY enough media to get there.
We can EARN enough free media to get there, it we’re smart.
In any case, such a program does both things we want to accomplish: It maximizes our chances for free media which maximizes our chances for the 15% and maximizes our potential vote totals come November – So, even if we fall short of the Johnson campaign’s long-shot goal of beating 15% to get in the debates we still have our best possible shot at beating Clark’s 1% nationwide.
116 z: Major network TV is still the largest element for POTUS and the one that confers legitimacy on a candidate, campaign and party. We need to be there first.
me: Perhaps to WIN POTUS that’s true. I’d say that’s off the table for all intents and purposes. Rather, the intermediate goal is 15% and the goal is to get, say, 2MM votes. It’s my bias, so I look at the situation through that lens.
@115 Yes, there are states where Presidential vote totals can earn ballot status. Not sure which off hand.
Yes, this could be a factor in choosing which of the small states should be selected since we probably won’t have enough money for 14 of them.
The internet, cable TV and newspaper ads are all small niches in the overall media market needed to win a POTUS election. However, you will not reach enough people to make a difference if you only do the niches.
Major network TV is still the largest element for POTUS and the one that confers legitimacy on a candidate, campaign and party. We need to be there first.
The second major advertising element is radio. This can be used very effectively in addition to network TV if a major network TV campaign has already been launched.
Billboards and yard signs are in the province of volunteers and activists – especially usefull in local and some statewide elections. They are important, they add to but cannot replace radio and TV for POTUS which we are discussing here. However, being on major network TV can greatly assist in getting out and increasing the visibility of yard signs and bumperstickers.
Filling in the niches is of least importance to an LP POTUS campaign since we are still looking for our first 15% for the debates and not our last 1% to put us over the top to win.
Yes, the world is changing. Someday the newspapers may disappear, for example, as has been long predicted, but not yet. Someday the internet may overtake major TV networks, but not yet.
What I believe will become much more important in the near future is the sophisticated marketing data that will become available through social media, google etc – that will allow individually tailored messaging through multiple channels – this may become a primary tool in reaching voters (2020 and beyond) but not yet.
Individually targeted advertising will reach a large number of viewers who will come to rely on self-selected program viewing and news sources through an unlimited number of channel options instead of broadcast viewing. It should join major market TV and radio as an essential component of advertising a few years down the road.
more…
And I don’t recall whether ballot access can be gained in any state with prez vote totals. If there is one, that would jump up the list of considerations, IMO….
113 z, much good sense here. It’s something that is probably more appropriate for the LNC or LNCC to consider.
GJ2012 is a single campaign. Doing something big is a small venue might be something to attempt as a side experiment…indeed I support it, in concept.
By all indications, though, they seem to be angling for a stretch goal of showing up in the polls at 15%. We all know that’s going to be very tough to pull off. Regardless, small-venue beats of expectations don’t really get us much on the national stage, and this is a national campaign, with a short window of time and minimal resources.
So, do you reject the goal of even trying to attain 15%? Or do you think that targeting a few states with TV is going to get him — I dunno — 30% in the those states to compensate for their small populations, which will bleed into non-targeted states through free media?
And, we’re still waiting on your “proof” that Internet political advertising doesn’t work….
Maine 1990 – summary:
LP ads were run in the spring of the year in all 3 of Maine’s TV broadcast markets – before the LP nominating convention for state and local office. Multiple repetitions were run during prime times bracketing the local news – morning, noon, evening, and late news programs were chosen.
Prior to 1990, no media outlet had attended a Maine LP convention.
Following these ads, every major TV network, several radio stations and all the major newspapers sent cameras, photographers, and reporters to the LP convention in 1990. All three days were covered. The Maine LP convention was the teaser lead on several local news reports. On the third day of the state convention coverage was so intense that the convention business came to a complete stop for about 30 minutes as all the party officers, potential candidates and most of the attending members were giving simultaneous interviews – some live, some on tape – to so many reporters that there was no one left to run the convention.
The LP backed an indpendent for Governor that year, assisting with his ballot drive and on campaign staff, who went on to earn 9% of the vote and gave the Maine LP ballot status (5%) required for the 1992 Marrou campaign.
The media expects the LP to do nothing. Usually we meet their expectations.
Occasionally some foolish LP member promises big things to the media, followed by the LP doing nothing or next to nothing. Proving to the media that the LP always does nothing and that they were right.
Smart media strategy means doing something they don’t expect – like actually running major network ads EARLY in the campaign. This will surprise them and earn media coverage.
It is important NOT to tell the media what you are doing. Let them expect nothing. They will be so surprised that the LP is doing something that they will cover it.
However, if you brag about your media plan, it will appear less than expected so you will still get nothing.
Be smart.
Target what you can afford.
Deliver MORE than you promise.
Surprise your adversaries.
Surprise the media.
If you want to be noticed, do something big in a small venue.
z, has anyone ever told you you seem to have a problem taking Yes for an answer?
Targeting makes sense on a lot of levels. You claim, however, that TV is the only way to go, despite the fact that now is not 1990 in one small state. Not only has TV viewership factured rather dramatically in 2 decades, but increasing numbers of eyeballs get their information on the Internet, not TV.
And then you wave your hands saying Internet doesn’t work. OK, maybe, but at least have the courtesy to show us the tablet that says that. 😉
It’s not just the free media.
Buying ads with insufficient funds in a large market means you cannot move the vote totals at all since you don’t buy enough rating points to reach voters with multiple repeat spots.
With rare exceptions, runs of single spots or only a small number of repeats means that viewers do not register the ad and do not act upon it. It takes multiple viewings by a viewer for that viewer to act upon the ad. So multiple spots that reach the same viewer are required. Repetition means more money. When the cost per ad is high, adequate repetition is impossible. This mean that large markets are out.
Repetition is also necessary to gain free media. Again, large markets are out.
Saturation of a whole state is needed to move any one state in the polls. Moving in the polls then requires excluding large cities and large states. Moving in the polls yields free media, a shot at being included in more polls, a shot at the debates.
Whole state saturation also allows a candidate to be included in the general discussion of that race in the political discussion within that state – from the media to the boardrooms to the lunch counters and booths at local diners.
Once a state is saturated, that state will yield more members and donors – party growth – which will allow the campaign to spread to other states.
In addition, once saturation has moved polls in a few states and brought in significant free media, additional funds can be raised from donors nationwide who will then see the value of the campaign.
Doing nothing, as has been the LP tradition – yields nothing.
Spreading the limited funds around the country, or spending in large markets or large states is like throwing a handful of sand in the ocean – no one will notice, there will be no effect due to the lack of repetition, and the money is completely wasted – also yielding nothing.
108 z, you might mean this:
https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2012/05/zapper-lessons-from-americans-elect-collapse-opportunities-and-ad-strategy-for-libertarians/#comment-747682
If so, if that’s all you’re talking about, that proves nothing. Intuitively and with much experience, yes, of course funding a targeted campaign has much to recommend it.
GJ’s gonna get free media. He already has. Maximizing it is the challenge.
For me, though, I’d rather see him maximize his national vote totals. You seem to believe that by maximizing efforts by state that that will increase the free media and that, in turn, will maximize vote totals. Or something. It just seems overthought to me…but it might be that you are Rove and Axelrod in one person!
sorry “laid”
RC, somewhere, in one of these threads, I layed out the Maine 1990 media campaign. Sorry you missed it.
z, I have no idea what happened in ME in 1990. Since you keep playing Lucy with the football, we can’t assess what you mean, since you pseudonymously dangle factoids with no ability for us to discern whether your experience and wisdom is optimized in 2012 nationally.
I would note that 1990 was not a presidential election year, so you once again coyly (apparently) leave us guessing…
@105 RC
There is no belittling or misdirection in pointing out obvious truth.
It is obvious that the LP cannot build its biggest state parties or advertise effectively in the biggest states first. Anyone who has knowledge of advertising, franchising or how the major parties also target due to limited funds would understand this.
Such knowledge can be gained through academic education, employment experience, political experience with the activities of the major parties or consulting with an individual with such experience.
I have done all of those.
Advertising agencies can design and target effective advertising to build a business. Targeting your audience is essential.
For franchise businesses, targeting is even more essential – not only by demographics, but by location. Cost of advertising is a major factor that must be considered in choosing where to go next from the first to the second market etc.
The Ds and Rs have to target geographically as well, even they do NOT have enough funds to run everywhere.
For the LP, it is obvious that we don’t have the funds to go nationwide. We also don’t have the funds to market effectively in any of the largest cities or states. The very idea of going to the big states first “because they are big” cries out as being well beyond ignorance. Even without the education or experience that I have mentioned, an ounce of logic will tell you that such an idea is unworkable, impossible … just the prattling of a mindless mouth. It would be more sensible to advise writing letters to Santa to get out the vote for Johnson.
The post 1980 LP POTUS campaigns have either done no advertising or have run ads in areas sponsored by a handful of donors in pittling amounts at off times on marginal stations or cable reaching a few hundred people at most with poor quality productions without enough repetitions to impact the viewers. That is the definition of totally wasted advertising money.
However, the LNC and the LP POTUS campaigns have had enough money to begin building the LP in non-Presidential years and LP POTUS campaigns have had enough money in the Pres election years to fund an efficiently targeted campaign on major network TV. They could have built the LP significantly. We can never go back, of course, and find out what we’ve missed …
… But, we can and we MUST begin NOW so that we don’t continue to waste our future.
The Johnson campaign campaign can easily raise enough money to begin. Targeted Network TV advertising of an effective flight of well made “Gary Johnson, Libertarian for President ads” will be poplular and easy to raise money for. We are likely to raise enough for a first round of ads in about 7 small states. I have listed 14 states that fit the criteria closely enough to secure rate cards and begin the complete analysis for selection.
(Of course, the LNC should continue such a project in the between years. We would continue to target essentially the same states, although with some modification for othe things such as the possibility of earning ballot status in certain key states and other factors. The selection group would be slightly different based on results and other long term criteria. The Johnson campaign has to consider criteria relevant to their candidate – New Mexico, for example, should be in the group targeted for POTUS.)
We also have experience with this kind of advertising plan. Once, in one state. Maine 1990. The only time it was ever tried. And it worked.
103 K, somehow, I missed that Zapper signified zero aggression. NOW it’s starting to make sense. The argument is reminiscent of Rothbardian argumentation, backed up by belittling and misdirection. The ‘graph right above is a perfect ex.
@103
I take it you have no experience in advertising or building a franchise business, either of which would give you a clue, of which you have none. If you had knowledge of the major two parties you could learn from them as well. You have not.
Sorry. Facts are facts. If you know them not, you need to either go to school and study this, work in one of the industries, learn from the parties, or learn from someone who knows.
Well ZAPper (that’s right Capozzi he’s a Zero Agg Prin person) is still here. He shows up as our modern day MOSES ! Each and everyone of you can be assured when “his” plan FAILS he will disappear until he can play MOSES in some other way in future years under some other name.
ZAP please give us links to these facts and figures ($32M) you talk of to saturate the USA with TV ads. Where does that come from please? Where is the LINK to your figure for WY or wherever? And MOST important where is the LINK to all that “free” media you think GJ would receive?
Build the Party first where the PEOPLE are located ! Eleven states not THIRTY-NINE plus DC. Zap’s plan is a take off of parts of the Jim Burns’ POTUS campaign plan. Check Burns site if you don’t believe it.
The LP needs strong state parties in all 51 but it needs the strongest and largest and most active State Orgs NOW in
CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, PA, OH, GA, MI, NC, NJ and VA !
After these are organized to the hilt then start in
WA, AZ, IN, MA, TN, MD, MN, MO, WI, AL, CO and SC !
Activate, motivate and ADVERTISE where the PEOPLE are located for BEST results. Pick the low hanging fruit FIRST, then go after the currently out of reach.
I think it’s wrong to get after a campaign for NOT doing something that costs big bucks, when there aren’t even “little” funds available to do little things.
Gary Johnson for President 2012: This Revolution Never Dies – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dk12-OJ9vLM&feature=related
Meet Gary Johnson – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boHvCmRm3SQ&feature=channel
@Reposting I am not a spokesperson for the campaign, that is above my pay (volunteer)-grade. I am merely a State Director, sharing my personal opinions on this site after a long day of trying to organize libertarians to help each other row in the same direction.
I would caution that you started with a question, then it morphed into an opinion, and you are now asserting it as a fact–and you are doing so anonymously (though I am in favor of anonymous political speech, so I guess I can’t complain too much about that 🙂 )
Hey Eric, how about addressing Johnson’s possibly incorrect FEC filing or the fact that his campaign manager lied in a sworn affadavit!
We talk about minor and third-party candidates… What’s we truly have are two old parties that have failed us, we need to look to new parties to help guide us towards the future… this year I’m voting LIBERTARIAN!
So, one media outlet picked up the story of Gary’s web video (with an odd title about it being a LP campaign ad) and touched on some of the issues (money) we’ve been talking about in this thread. Maybe they are channeling IRP!
http://www.kob.com/article/stories/s2632159.shtml
Also, for those interested, Gary wrote a foreign policy piece for HuffingtonPost today, at:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gary-johnson/afghanistan-war-end_b_1543964.html
Have a great holiday weekend!
Carol @96
No one who is not signed up to post articles at IPR can post pictures or videos. It has nothing to do with whether you prefer “girlie” or “boyee” pictures.
I know of no way to fix that. Unless/until Trent figures one out, it will remain a perk of being an IPR author.
The most you can post are URLs.
Reposting @95 who files the FEC papers? I would think Nielson prepares them and Johnson just signs them at most…am I wrong?
Paulie @ girlie pictures: How can I post boyie pictures, or pictures of my roommate in his dirty underwear? I want to have sexy fun too!!!
The following from Warren Redlich’s facebook page.
Ronald Nielson, a consultant working with the Johnson campaign, states that the GJ2012 campaign owes his firm $676K.
http://a3.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/477529_711044379231_3006413_34164556_2022643175_o.jpg
The Johnson campaign reported to the FEC total debts of $152K: http://query.nictusa.com/pres/2012/M4/C00495622.html
None of the reported debts were to Nielson’s company, NSON, Inc.
So did Nielson lie to a federal court, or did Johnson lie to the FEC?
Zapper – good points. I’ll be emailing Eric Blitz…want to be CCed?
If you want your suggestions considered that would probably be a better place to start than IPR comments alone.
RC @ 79
“I completely agree with you that Team GJ should come up with A plan that could be shared with donors to maximize fundraising. I’m sorry if I’ve not made that clear.
All I can say about this: “The plan I have presented is the only plan that is self funding…” is that, for me, when someone (a pseudonym!) tells me that the “only” way something can be done is HIS way, I am at once curious and skeptical. I’ve yet to see the “only” was as being the truth, and I am heavily biased toward the truth.
But if it IS the “only” way, I’m – as ever – open minded. Lay out why it is so, please.” – Robert Capozzi
Actually, the lack of any plan at all has been my major reason for pushing a plan – call it the zapper plan if you want.
Had there been a plan in effect I likely would have accepted it, unless it really was bad. And I have stressed that “waiting for money to come in” is not a real plan – although it seems to be the usual default position of LP POTUS campaigns.
Also, I don’t agree that I’m being impatient. Although Johnson just won the LP nomination, they started running for and have been expected to win that nomination since …what … Dec 2011?
The planning should have been done long ago with a trigger to kick off at the convention, if not sooner. I’m not being impatient, I’m agahst and appalled at the continued, and sadly typical, lack of planning of nearly every LP campaign.
As to being the “only” self-funding media plan, I apologize that I wasn’t clear that I meant “among the options being discussed at this time.” Those are the “wait for the money” option, the “target the biggest states instead” option and the target everywhere or the internet or whatever options – many things have been mentioned. None of these have been fleshed out much in any case.
However, in the world of possiblities there are countless possible “self funded” and reasonable media plans that are possible to be devised using the funds we have, the donor base we have and that could begin now.
We should use some strategy in whatever plan we choose. We cannot afford and should not try to run everywhere. Some kind of strategy is likley to lead to better results. There are other strategies possible, but we should think them through: all the benefits and twists and potentials etc as I have done with this zapper plan – and I haven’t layed out the long term benefits of continuing the targeting through 2014 and 2016.
The important thing – I think I’ve said this before – is to agree on a good plan, promote it, raise money and begin – NOW.
Maybe he moved. I know he was in Maine at one point.
I’m likewise a strategic thinker and I’ve been trying to connect with the campaign so they can use my energy, enthusiasm and planning.
Eric Blitz to Zapper:
However, instead of just laying out a plan, join the campaign and get involved. You will have a greater chance of advocating for such a plan than simply posting it here and more importantly, you’d be able to learn some strategies and information that I am hesitant to put here in response, simply because I don’t know yet that it is for public consumption.
I’d like to participate in that discussion. I’ll email you if you haven’t emailed me (provided you left a working email in IPR comment box), tho I much prefer the phone.
The campaign has to have national coordination by subject area. I saw that there is some on communications and media relations, but I don’t know as to the rest. State by state obviously isn’t enough to coordinate those things, nor is it enough to coordinate the things I am most interested in. Whether I am nomadic or not, which I am, is a secondary issue.
89 gw, no, Youngers hailed from WI.
travellingcircus at gmail.com is OK but ph# best by far.
Zapper,
I like your plan. You are a strategic thinker. One region that would be good for Gary Johnson to focus advertising and on the ground campaigning is Northern New England: Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont. Ron Paul’s primary vote totals were much higher in those states than most other places. They are contiguous so that advertising would naturally cover an adjoining state. I think Nick Youngers was originally from Maine. Maine will probably be electing an Independetn Senator and has had Independent Governors so the people there are apt to vote for someone other than Romney or Obama. New Hampshire is the Free State Project location. Vermont would be where Johnson’s positions on peace and social issues could pull votes away from Obama. Zapper, I hope you can connect with the Johnson campaign because they could use your energy, enthusiam and planning.
FB not so good. Give me a call 415-690-6352. I can do conference call or one on one.
@Paulie, I’ll bring up the question of where to put a roamer such as yourself into the mix in tonight’s conference call, then get back to you (via FB?).
@Zapper, I think you underestimate the cost of saturation of even small markets, at least enough to move the dial significantly. With that said, you are right that the campaign must start somewhere to get past the catch-22 problem. However, instead of just laying out a plan, join the campaign and get involved. You will have a greater chance of advocating for such a plan than simply posting it here and more importantly, you’d be able to learn some strategies and information that I am hesitant to put here in response, simply because I don’t know yet that it is for public consumption. I’m not suggesting that the info is earth shattering or anything, just that you raise certain points I’d normally have a more detailed response to, but am not sure that’s such a good idea. After all, you might be Mitt Romney in disguise trolling through IPR, trying to get all our cool info! (ok, sorry, that’s a low blow…how about, you might be Ron Paul in disguise…) 🙂
We need to get some New New on board the Johnson train, fo sho 😛
Big Booty Judy and the rest of the shorties like the New New Plan, too. 😉
I say we officially endorse the New New plan…gotta get some a dat New New!
p, you got MAD skillz, m’du. Pulling New/New outta ATL! That’s tight, my guard.
Nick posited that L sentiment is actually highest in northern states. I seem to recall he had a theory that northern state residents were naturally more individualistic, as they spent so much time in doors and away from social interaction, or something. This, iirc, is why AK had elected several Ls to the legislature, for ex.
I don’t recall if it went any further than this in terms of political strategy.
Haven’t heard of this….what was/is it?
Dear Brother Zapper,
Among the last things I’m interested in with this political-ideas-sharing hobby of mine is to get into a pissing contest with a pseudonym. This is especially the case because: a) I think the Zapper Plan has merits and b) I was once an advocate for exploring a similar approach (The Youngers Northern Strategy). It might be the greatest political idea of all time! You may in your mind be able to taste just how masterful it is, hence your apparent enthusiasm for your idea.
I do always try to walk a mile in the other person’s shoes, and I do suggest the approach to others. So, imagine you are GJ. Someone named “Zapper” proposes a plan on IPR that Zapper believes will take GJ2012 to the next level. GJ, sitting in his bathrobe in his kitchen in Taos, might bubble over with enthusiasm for the Zapper Plan. Or he and his team might look at a few approaches to maximize the impact of his campaign. Personally, I’d say the latter is the wiser move, ATC.
There are other approaches, or variations on the Zapper Theme. Maybe he should adopt the New/New Plan, focusing on 2 states, New Mexico and New Hampshire. Although they are low pop., NM is his home and presumably he remains reasonably popular. NH is ideologically prone to an L message.
I completely agree with you that Team GJ should come up with A plan that could be shared with donors to maximize fundraising. I’m sorry if I’ve not made that clear.
All I can say about this: “The plan I have presented is the only plan that is self funding…” is that, for me, when someone (a pseudonym!) tells me that the “only” way something can be done is HIS way, I am at once curious and skeptical. I’ve yet to see the “only” was as being the truth, and I am heavily biased toward the truth.
But if it IS the “only” way, I’m – as ever – open minded. Lay out why it is so, please.
And, yes, of course – like GJ’s business experience – ya gotta walk before you run. The analogy is strained, IMO, because GJ’s business evolved over many years, with I’m sure his share of twists and turns along the way. His campaign will last 6 months, so I’d say it’s a different animal.
Finally, you’ve asserted that targeted Internet advertising cannot work, but the assembled have only seen your assertion with no back-up. I’m interested. Since Team GJ seems to be using the Web heavily as its prime vehicle, we’d like to hear why they are making a mistake in doing so.
Eric Blitz
Thanks for the info!
Here is what I have sent several people with the campaign – look it over if you get a chance and if you have any advice I would appreciate it, since it sounds like you know their operations pretty well:
Joe, Paul and Ashley,
I’m forwarding my offer to one of the people on the Ballot Access committee for the campaign and to my state volunteer director (to the best of my knowledge). Most of the below sent in the course of a response to Joe earlier.
There may be other people related to what I am talking about – I sure hope there are, and if not I volunteer to be that person whenever and wherever I can be. I don’t know who all those people are though, but I’d like to.
I do plan on being in Alabama at some point, but I’m not sure when. Given that I travel all over the country and don’t even necessarily know what all states I will be in, I think it is important that we have some national coordination in each of these areas, not just have everything farmed out to the states. I could, I suppose, with great effort send everything to 40+ (I hope) different state directors, but that doesn’t seem like the best way to do things to me.
I explained potential “conflict of interest” issues – I think they are more of a confluence of interest in this case – to Paul K. (CCed), and provided my response to those. In short, I will make what money I make either way, but I hope to see the campaign succeed as much as possible and am offering to do a whole bunch of extra stuff at no cost.
[…]
I don’t know who all the campaign has doing what.
I would be willing and able to help with the following::
*Student group activation and coordination
*Ballot access planning and coordination with LPHQ, state parties and other parties in states where that is allowed
*Tracking and helping increase/leverage press coverage
*Some networking with single issue groups
*Volunteer mobilization/coordination/tracking
All stuff I have experience with and much of which I will be doing anyway for other reasons so it would make sense to coordinate it with the campaign.
All volunteer natch.
@ The video
LOL . Thelma and Louise ? Sounds like something that would appeal to my grandparents.
And that music is awful.
@ Robert Capozzi,
didn’t you live in Northern Virginia until recently?
Funny because I never saw you at any of our meetings, picnics, fundraisers, etc. I didn’t know your name until I got on to IPR (And noticed that you ramble on and on incessantly).
It’s easy to be an internet armchair political strategist.
“I guess I have this silly idea that if you want numbers, you have to go where the numbers are!” RC
It IS pretty silly if you try to go where the numbers are when there is no money to go there.
Ask GJ about building his handyman business. Did he try to jump into a full size operation with no customers and no money, or did he start out with what he could afford and grow from there?
RC We don’t have the money to target the larger states. None of them. We cannot buy enough rating points to make a difference in the vote and we cannot inspire donors to donate. It’s a guaranteed failure.
You cannot claim to have no plan. You keep presenting the same failed plan. This is what has been used from 1984 – 2008. Your “no plan” is really the …
“we-will-run-advertising-if-enough-money-comes-in-so-wait-and-see plan.
The results are always the same and predictable again for 2012.
The plan I have presented is the only plan that is self funding, has no downside, does not take away from other campaign activities, and lays the seeds for success in 2014 and beyond while giving us the best chance for a breakthrough in 2012.
z: The low budget internet gambit has been tried and has failed miserably.
me: Actually, I’d want to see a pretty big budget Internet campaign, as big as they can cobble together. I’d like to see your data.
The LP prez has a floor in the 0.5MM vote range. I have no claim on a plan, just a thought. I’ve done a back-of-the-envelope calc of what the Zapper Plan suggests, and started to do one for the notion of targeting large, lopsided states with a counter-wasted-vote case.
Clark had significant seed money and handlers. They didn’t have the Internet.
Last I checked, network TV viewership skews older, or younger and non-reflective. GJ’s natural voters are going to be reflective youngers and under 55 would be my guess.
I guess I have this silly idea that if you want numbers, you have to go where the numbers are!
RC You have nothing to base your numbers on.
You cannot raise the vote totals in NY with internet advertising. Any benefit will be too small to measure. The low budget internet gambit has been tried and has failed miserably.
But the needed budget to actually reach the public and move them to action is a known – as in a rule of thumb or a soft science – a known amount. It is similar to the known rules of thumb in the direct mail business where you have some experience.
We cannot afford to do New York. Not now.
We have to start with what we can afford.
We cannot afford to do nothing, or to do again those things that are known to fail.
You say you want to double the Clark vote totals. Nice goal. They had nationwide ads. Amazing discount spots 32 years ago and spent at least $1,900,000 on network TV ads nationwide.
How? How will you reach enough people. To match or double the Clark ads. Nationwide takes $16,000,000 for a low budget campaign that may not get enough exposures to take off. $32,000,000 is the minimum budget to buy enough rating points to have an electoral impact.
Lack of the same discount spots plus inflation and that’s the kind of cash we need for your dream. YOU are not facing reality.
$16,000,000 to $32,000,000
We don’t have it.
But, as I wrote above. We can do the same thing. We can saturate state by state. And if we start early we will get major amounts of free media by bringing the Johnson polling numbers up, state by state. Enough states gets us the free media to get to 15% polls to get into the debates. This free media gets us well past the Clark numbers.
Your plan is a bus with no wheels and no fuel and no engine. The driver waits while the mechanics argue and the potential passeners go to the beach for a nice, long vacation.
z, $5MM for INTERNET advertising, or TV? I’d be completely floored if the former.
It appears YOU are not facing reality, actually.
Of course, I assume the goal is to double Clark kinda thing.
If the goal is to increase the WY vote from 1% to 2%, I’d say that’s so inconsequential as to not be worthy of trying. Nothing against WY, but it’s a TINY state, pop. wise.
Your pep talks don’t especially inspire me, since the premise seems sub-optimal to me, at least inductively so.
But, if Team GJ goes this route, I’ll support it. Hopefully they would actually do the deductive work to justify such inspiration….
Johnson has no chance with sane people if he continues to carry water for the Roots and the Stones of this world.
RC @ 66 You need at least $5 million to target New York State. – The NYC media market makes even that too small, although you get overlap.
Why don’t you want to face reality?
You keep suggesting impossible alternatives and then fall back on doing nothing.
We have enough money and donors to do a real, pofessional, major network media plan.
And the only requirement to make it work is to begin.
@ 47 to Eric Blitz,
Apparently you have not read my posts.
Or, alternatively, you did not understand them. If so, I apologize for explaining poorly.
As you have indicated, a nationwide TV campaign utilizing the Major networks is presently beyond the ability of the Johnson campaign.
Indeed, that is so. In fact, and you apparently failed to either read or understand this – overcoming that obstacle is the major benefit of the plan I have proposed.
Yes, you would need at least $32,000,000 to launch a competitve, saturation level media campaign on a nationwide basis. And I have advised and presented a way to avoid this problem.
Instead we should take advantage of the greatest boon to 3rd parties ever devised and so long overlooked: The Electoral College and the division of the US into States.
You see, in the US, States count. In fact, in reality, states are everything. There is no such thing as a national election.
We can build our party state by state. We can marshall our resources and target the states we can afford to saturate with our message, one at a time. We don’t have to have enough money to go national and we don’t have to have enough donors to go national.
And we DO have enough members and donors and cash available to do THIS media plan. And they are sitting on their hands waiting for some reason to donate.
They are out there Right Now.
So, we start with the smallest states; the ones that we can saturate on a small budget. These states will earn us respect, free media and bring in more members and donors.
If we start now we can use the growth from the first states to move on to additional states. Each time we add a state, we do so knowing we have enough money to reach saturation levels in that state. There is no wasted money. No wasted effort. And by building one state at a time we cannot fall short in our efforts.
Imagine you were starting a franchise chain: Call it Gj’s Lovely Pizzeria. Would you try to open one restaurant in every state and advertise in every state? No. Of course not. You would develop one market at a time, so as to target and maximize the benefits of your advertising.
Well, our markets are States. States have races for Gov, Senate, US House, State rep and State senate … guess what? Those are all by state. And our state parties will get strong if WE ever actually get smart enough to work together to win, one state at a time.
Donors will understand and donate to support this plan.
But first, we have to make some quality, professional ads that are ready to run – so show the donors. This is the investment money. The seed money. It is more important than your office space or any paid staff you might have. If Travis Irvine is available, he could give you some great ads – 30 sec, 60 sec, 5 min – to show the donors. CALL HIM. Buget this and take a risk. Be leaders. Try $10,000. If you can’t swing that to get started you shouldn’t have even shown up in Las Vegas.
While you’re making the ads, Do The Research. Call the major network stations in the 13 target states I’ve listed before, add Nebraska which I neglected as another possibility. Then we choose a subset of 7 or 8 to start with.
Then we go to the donors with a plan, the target states, the reason to donate and the ads. We send mail. We follow up with phone calls. We get some of the early big donors who will max out for this to call other known big donors – free fundraising by dedecated and committed voluteers – and ask them to match and max out – what’s the max now? $2,500? 200 donors can give $500,000? And you can’t conceive of raising that? With a real plan? And you don’t realize that with no plan those same donors might give $5000 total.
Then we do what we promised. We saturate the states we raise enough money to reach. Some of the individuals who respond to the ads for more information will become additional members, donors, supporters and future party activists and candidates.
From there we grow until election day. As the effort grows and bears fruit, we will be able to demonstrate our success to additional donors and expand the number of states. And, if the program fails – always a chance of failure or success in the risky things in life – well then we can cut our losses and not add any more states. This program is self funding, beyond the original ads … and they could be used anywhere, run on YouTube and at least get some exposure. So there is no downside.
However, there is a big downside to what is being done now.
Right now we are waiting for enough donations to do something. And we’re not planning anything because there isn’t enough money. And the donors aren’t giving because nothing is happening.
So, you can see the circle you’re in. Catch 22. Except this catch 22 has a way out. The Johnson campaign can take a risk, take this plan, run with it, get the ball rolling and make something happen.
It’s not up to me. I gave you the plan.
It’s up to you.
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TV would be great, btw. If the Internet advertising works and the fundraising works, absolutely do TV. I’d still rather do it in Albany over Anchorage, though.
65 z, no, sorry, I’m assuming TV is off the table, actually. I’m assuming more guerilla Internet advertising, using targeting techniques that I understand are readily available.
Targeting 250K voters in WY gets, what, maybe 25K in Nov.? Is that worth the effort?
Contrast this with, for ex., John McCain’s vote total in NY in 08. He got over 2.7MM. If 10% of those who might vote R can be convinced THEY are wasting their vote, that’s accounts for ALL voters in WY!
@ 60 RC. Somehow you have still missed the most essential point regarding a media plan.
GJ does not have enough money to target larger states. NONE of them. For example, the Minimum budget necessary to saturate CA between now and November is 3.2 million dollars.
He can have the same impact in WY for $50,000.
If GJ buys a small number of ads in a large state that falls below the saturation level there will be little increase in vote totals beyond the usual LP 0.5%. The entire budget in that state is wasted.
We have to buy enough ads to reach saturation. Buying fewer than the saturation level is like sending a rocket into space with only half the required fuel needed to reach orbit. The rocket will fall short. It crashes and burns. The option is to use enough fuel to reach orbit or don’t go.
Advertising campaigns with fewer repetitions than the number required to meet the frequency of exposure level required to precipitate action is the same – The ad campaign falls short.
The Johnson campaign needs to do what no LP campaign has done since Clark in 1980 – that is:
Develop a credible media plan that takes into account:
… the financial reality of the campaign (something that is doable and can generate its own funds);
… the physical and factual realities of the real world (populations of states, cost per person, minimum number of exposures to reach saturation);
… is believable, inspirational and demonstrates leadership (so as to excite donors enough to give hundreds instead of tens and thousands instead of nothing) to bring in the required donations in time to execute the plan;
… that guarantees that all funds raised will be spent on Major network TV ads in the best daytime and evening spots (not overnights, not cable);
… and that guarantees that enough ads will be run, state by state, buying no less than the minimum number required to reach a reasonable saturation level before moving on to the next state.
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My sense is that these are the base case assumptions, btw. The most important, controllable swing factor is GJ’s execution of any plan. And that’s mostly a function of his own intentions. Do voters believe it when he says he’d rather die than vote Obama or Romney under threat of torture? Does he really believe they are (metaphorically) Thelma and Louise? And does he REALLY believe he would do a better job than either of them?
Even with R/D disenchantment being at such high levels, getting voters (vs. non-voters) to get over the horse race aspect of politics and onto the personal symbolism of voting with one’s conscience is no easy task. I sense that Team GJ gets that making the emotional case for doing so is more effective than then “logical” case….
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Although he might do disproportionately well in NM, which is a swing state.
61 cm, focusing on swing states is probably the TOUGHEST sell. That’s where one’s vote “counts” the most.
But OK:
3) Focus-on-swing-state strategy, he gets 0.5MM votes.
@60: If focusing on states, why not those with best potential that ALSO are swing states. Making a difference gets more publicity and makes demopublicans nervous enough that for one brief shining moment they may take a more libertarian position. Not that they’d stick by it for long…
55 gw, what did the editor say to that?
Has Team GJ adopted the Zapper Plan?
Here’s a way to look at it…which is preferable?
1) In 5 states, GJ gets 6% of the vote. Overall, he gets 1MM votes.
2) By focusing on the large lopsided states, he gets 2MM votes.
@ paulie, 48
The campaign has weekly conference calls with all the state directors, then a second weekly conference call with state directors broken out regionally, then many state directors also have a weekly conference call for their state. The information flows in both directions. Important news is shared in a private FB group or via email when it is sensitive/confidential. Each state has a GJ FB page for distribution of information and soliciting input, though with varied levels of activity/results.
There are other staff, but the most relevant to this discussion:
Campaign director is Ron Nielson
Communications director is Joe Hunter
Media Relations is Alexis Madill
I’d rather not put their contact information out on a website, but I can get that info to you directly. The best way to get information to the campaign is through your state’s director, the contact info for which is listed on the map of the US at http://www.garyjohnson2012.com/state-contacts
Ah, I should have known. Remember the Animotion song from the 1980s – Obsession?
Paulie, 53. I won’t be coy. It’s the guilt by association for being in the same room or organization or party or ballot access drive, etc. with a convicted pedophile smear. Like half the LP of CA isn’t just as guilty. Let’s face it, Marijuana people in general don’t much give a f*ck about people who have done their time, as long as they don’t look to be doing the crime again. Libertarians have a range of views, often dependent on the individual and whether it’s believable they have changed. I tend to be a skeptic in this case, but on the other hand have big problem with the guilt by association nonsense.
Paulie – 54. Yes, then it would make sense if it was a comparison of death wishes. Of course, Thelma and Louise WERE enjoying themselves. One would hate to think the Obamney was …
I had the opportunity the day before yesterday of talking personally with the Editor of a premier American newspaper about Gary Johnson. I told him that there was a small but very active group of mostly young people who could be very supportive of Johnson’s Libertarian campaign. He replied that it took a huge amount of money to run for US President. I replied that Gary Johnson was going to focus on small media markets such as Rocky Mountain states where limited funds could cover the whole state. I hope he will be more aware of Johnson now and thanks Zapper for a way for me to counter his statement.
Thelma and Louise appeared to be white, so maybe it’s a black power subliminal message?
Seriously – you do have a point – although most likely it did not even occur to the people who made the video themselves on any conscious level, nor is it likely to occur to most other people.
I liked your suggestion of making it Obama and Romney going on over a cliff in a car. That would be keen.
Yeah, I think he started “Stop Ron Paul 2012” with E.D./Ritalinberg and maybe also the Bitter-dude, iirc. I don’t think that really ended up hurting Ron Paul tho, maybe it even helped? Who knows, maybe they can help draw more attention to both Gary Johnson and Regulate Marijuana Like Wine whereupon those campaigns will manage what attention they get as a result intelligently and turn it to their advantage.
Hey, could that be Cohen and his friends secret plan all along? 😛
Paulie, at 50, FYI that came about because Bruce Cohen is trying to fuck up Gray’s campaign by spreading dirt to the media related to the Marijuana like Wine intiative. And starting an “Independent libertarians” group to trash him, plus trashing him on various other facebook groups. On Gary Johnson’s townhall tonight I just asked Gary Johnson what he thought of these attacks on Judge Gray from people who don’t like his position on Palestine. He said he and Gray are coming up with a joint statement on the issue. He also was very gung ho on the Colorado Marijuana Wine Initiative. So Bruce Cohen’s attempts to blackmail Gray and the campaign doubtless will come to naught.
The subliminal message of video is: Don’t be like these dumb broads and go over a cliff. Vote for peace like a smart GUY. Geez, loooooose the damn thing….
I saw a lot more than one mention come across my desk. It made news in quite a few places.
Lots of things exist which I don’t understand why they are or are not popular. C’est la vie.
At least this discussion of this video is a lot saner than the one on the Radical Caucus facebook page, which somehow turned into back and forth about foreign aid to Israel, Zionism, and related topics ad nauseum. I think that one has this one beat by like a hundred comments tho.
45 p: It got free/earned media, therefore it worked, even if it didn’t work for you.
me: So true, thanks, P. Of course, one mention doesn’t mean in works broadly. We all can’t be Donald Draper, and not everything Draper does appeals to everyone. I may not think TITANIC was a great movie, but I do see why it was popular.
Any details on that? And who all is the national staff? Who has what positions and what is contact info for each?
Zapper, if it were only as easy as being committed to a cause. Prying significant money out of the hands of libertarians is brutally hard. Not impossible, just harder than it should be.
Until the campaign can get anywhere close to mainstream voter’s wallets, we are stuck with limited liberty dollars, much of which has been used up by the ‘revolution’ to temporarily corner 10 to 13% of the Republican voters…
Criticism of the ads or strategy–totally valid. In my opinion, keep it coming. I have my own complaints too. But you have set up a straw man if you attempt to measure the campaign by whether it can pull off a significant national TV commercial effort. Well crafted, timely, and effective TV spots for a national campaign so far outstrip libertarian fundraising potential as to be fantasy, at least at this point.
If you are sure I’m wrong, you could set up a PAC and show us how it is done. As I said, the criticism is great, it helps inform. Better yet, contact your state’s GJ2012 director and offer to become a district director or fundraising director (if your state doesn’t have one), and you’d be welcome to join the team. The national staff listens to advice. Conference calls and other methods give ample opportunity for direct input.
Wise advice.
It got free/earned media, therefore it worked, even if it didn’t work for you.
From Lew Rockwell: Brilliant Gary Johnson Ad
http://www.lewrockwell.com/politicaltheatre/2012/05/brilliant-gary-johnson-ad/
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Zapper, GJ’s nomination was a bit more than 2 weeks ago. The Zapper Proto Plan was published 5 days ago. GJ2012 is in the red. Third party politics are extremely difficult and basically always fail electorally.
Have some perspective.
Yes, the watermelon didn’t work.
Feel very Lee Wrights. Which it was a good thing. Much better than that weird watermelon stuff.
nk@38 yep
37 z: So far we have the same old, same old.
me: I agree with most of what you say, except I see these opening vids are substantially different than previous efforts.
I see them as mostly beta-testing, rough cuts being shared with the community. My guess is we’ll see a few more, then some re-cuts.
As for the campaign’s strategy, it seems clear that they are going for 15% in the polls as their stated goal. You may need more specifics, or perhaps you need them to adopt the Zapper Plan for you to not be a critic. It appears to me that they are doing a lot, and they are fundraising.
Clearly they are doing a lot of “free” media.
I don’t sense that Team GJ has totally grounded its Mission Statement as yet, but I’ve never seen impatience work.
Has anyone looked at the link that I posted in the second spot in this comments section? That is how you get free media exposure.
@35 RC
Funds do not raise themselves.
Raising funds is not just a matter of asking for many and waiting for the money to roll in either.
Donors need a reason to donate. If the campaign offers nothing new, there is no reason.
Sure many people will donate a few bucks out of loyalty and tradition. Ballot access, we get it, but we’re tired of it … still, a few bucks more.
The campaign has to start out of the blocks – and they’re already late for that – with something exciting, something that inspires, something that shows there are new leaders with new ideas, something fresh to get donors to turn tens into hundreds and hundreds into thousands.
Many donors will sit on their hands and give nothing because there is nothing to give for.
The Johnson campaign needs to lead and inspire. They need to motivate the donors. And to do that means showing the proof – the beef that Clara Peller was looking for.
So far we have the same old, same old.
Waiting for the money to come in before you plan is planning for no money to come in. Of course that means when no money does come in you are prepared to do nothing … so your plan to do nothing succeeds and you actually accomplish what you planned to do – NOTHING.
I hear crickets …
I wouldn’t venture any guesses on Zapper’s zdentity, although I actually know.
Zapper should maybe zap something to a list of people which he or she may or may not have and get some funds flowing. If zapper does not have such a list already zapper may want to zap one together.
34 z: Are they open to the ideas from professionals who can help them break out?
me: Money quote?
Are you a “professional” pol strategist, Zapper?
My guess is you’re not Roger Stone!
I’m getting the sense that you may have had this moment of inspiration about the Zapper Plan, yet you don’t have any visibility into what funds Team GJ has at the moment. (I don’t, either, other than they were running in the red until recently.) It’s nice to dream up grand, break-out schemes, but if the funds are not there, it’s all much ado about nothing. It’s worse, actually, given the performance of Barr 08, where they hastily dreamed up a Perot 2.0 strategy but never got funds to execute it.
Yes, Team GJ can just wait a few months, trying to raise money for the Zapper Plan, or they can go guerilla with the hope of upsizing the campaign if and when the funds ARE there.
This is another low budget effort – hopefully volunteer labor so it was free – and zero cost to place on Youtube. It will be watched by a few LP members and a few campaign supporters. If we’re lucky, dozens, perhaps even scores of newcomers will stumble upon it.
Looks like another typical LP POTUS year. We’re heading for another chance to break through the 0.5% level. At least when this campaign does nothing, runs no TV ads (none that actually reach the level of repetition required to generate any results) but still doesn’t make even 48 state ballot status, gets a tiny amount of free media coverage (which will be bragged about as if getting more than Barr ’08 was significant) and then still falls under 1% of the vote … at least then we will have proved that the LP hasn’t been held back by being too radical or too principled.
… and maybe that’s enough.
With the continuing trouble in Oregon, the sillyness over Cloud, the lackluster, yawn-inspiring performance of the Johnson campaign so far, the lack of any planning for anything beyond the failed campaigns of old, and the lack of interest in pursuit of anything challenging and new …
… just Ballot drives, personal problems and LNC drama …
It just makes me wonder … What do the Johnson campaign people do and talk about? Do they focus on anything that’s going on among their supporters and potential supporters? Do they have any plans at all to do anything different than the LP has done in the past? (So far it’s the same old nothing.) Are they open to the ideas from professionals who can help them break out? Where’s the excitement, where’s the motivation, where’s the leadership … ?
Sure, I remember Thelma and Louise, but most won’t and anyway…
Where’s the beef?
Ya know, I’m thinking about taking a long vacation on a beach somewhere … 6 months or a year maybe …
Looking around this planet, I see very few grown ups.
30 ryan, that’s the point of Thelma and Louise. The Rs/Ds are BOTH driving us off a cliff.
Advertising deals in metaphor and emotional associations. Pedantic philosophizing may have its place, but it ain’t here. IMO.
Almost?
@Ryan 30 That message (Big govt. vs. Small) only appeals to a small group. It is very abstract and sounds conservative.
As opposed to getting caught up in the left/right debate we need to focus on promoting government as a means to protect the rights of the minority (individual).
I think the Johnson needs to reinforce the Big Government vs. Small Government message, with examples for Romney to demonstrate that he is almost as Big Government as Obama. Keep the message simple.
Romney: Big Government (show examples of: will spend $100B MORE on the military, invented the individual healthcare mandate, will spend $100B to build a fence across the desert, etc.)
Obama: Bigger Government (pick whichever examples you’d like)
Johnson: Smaller Government (Governor Veto, bring our troops home, consolidate federal agencies, etc.)
Tighten the ad to 30 seconds and keep pounding this message home.
28 p, I’ve gotta believe Team GJ will be doing a Who Is Gary Johnson? ad. His story is REALLY compelling.
Maybe some Rocky music and Mt Everest?
@24 Not sure off hand but I’m betting, especially for youtube ads, there’s some leeway
25 P, LOL!!!
@23 Maybe he should begin to smile in slow mo to music like Cain 🙂
I wish I knew more about the “Fair Use Doctrine” for political ads…
Just giving some unsoliticted feedback, IPR being an informal focus group for Team GJ…I do like the sparseness of this ad series, but sometimes it feels flat. For ex., the GJ portrait seems to just sit there on the screen sometimes. How about some cutaways to (well-lit) vid footage of the Governor? Maybe slo-mo cutaways….
I also would like to see “Governor” on the screen as frequently as possible. That one word kicks up the credibility. Maybe there’s some news conference footage from his gubernatorial years, speeches to the NM legislature, something.
Keep it clean, though. The Bauhaus feel adds to the overall theme of starting over from Square One.
Keep up the great work!
Cutaway would be good tho.
@Paulie 18. OK, good.
Agreed
Wrights townhall tonight (see article) may not be a coincidence?
Mark,
They may have seen the Telephone video with Beyonce and Lady Gaga based on that movie, or perhaps the Key of Awesome parody of that video etc.
mh, yes, agreed on Thelma and Louise being dated. I also want to see a cutaway of a car going off a cliff to help those who don’t know who they were…
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Interestingly, this messaging is reminiscent of the Wrights campaign. I like that it is.
12 ryan: The “humanitarian” barn door is very big and a very slippery slope.
me: Yes, I s’pose so, when viewed through the absolutist lens. Hypothetical: The Canadian Mounties are rounding up millions of French-speaking Quebecers, marching them to the VT border and gunning them down. They do it just far enough away from the border that the blood doesn’t trickle into VT.
A “strict” (absolutist) noninterventionist would say, None of the US’s business. You?
13 MT, yes, we’re all entitled to our own opinions. It gives me the chills like a great U2 song. It puts Ls on the side of the people, which is IMO great positioning.
Very well done. I like the message, the only issue I have is Thelma and Louise is a 21 year old movie, the young demo won’t have a clue what that means.
Robert, I just don’t think it’s compelling. It’s just weak and leaves nothing behind.
Careful. The “humanitarian” barn door is very big and a very slippery slope. Is there really that much difference between LRA/Uganda and Syria, Libya, etc.?
10 rc: he will receive (rightfully so, imo) significant criticism for his support of foreign intervention for humanitarian causes.
me; My assessment is exactly the opposite. Without a carve-out for counter-genocide and other compelling situations, the “significant” criticism is maximized. Only in L circles and among pacifists does this positioning not play.
rc: More importantly, these Johnson ads need to shrink and become significantly shorter and the messaging needs to get much much tighter.
me: Possibly. However, unlike a TV ad, a YouTube viewer is self selecting. My guess is people will watch a 2 minute ad on YouTube IF it’s compelling.
Love Johnson. But this is a weak ad. If Johnson ever makes it to the big stage, he will receive (rightfully so, imo) significant criticism for his support of foreign intervention for humanitarian causes. He can be easily made out to be just another politician smothered in hypocrisy. Can’t be for “peace” and at the same time commit US military to Africa to fight Kony (even if it’s the right thing to do).
More importantly, these Johnson ads need to shrink and become significantly shorter and the messaging needs to get much much tighter.
In the video there is a reference to “Democrat Leaders”. If the reference is to the party then the proper name is “Democratic”.
And I agree with MK @ 7. I think there should be more emphasis on the specifics of the issues. I think Gary made the point at one time that we borrow from China to keep troops in Germany. Explain that to the public!
How about Romney as the tin man and Obama as the cowardly lion? Perhaps Duh!-bya could make a cameo as the scarecrow?
I actually think it’s kind of lame for a major presidential campaign video. The graphics are pretty cheap (like the same people being over and over in the rush of people), and there’s only words being repeated on the screen (which I wouldn’t mind if they actually mentioned anything of importance). I think the campaign needs to use more actual video breaking down the issues in a common sense message, without these odd drawn out pictures.
On a side note, most marketing for the campaign really needs to update. It especially needs to evolve into a Johnson/Gray campaign, and not use the same small-scale measures that it had during the Republican nomination.
at 1:59, there’s a lightening strike, and something pops on for a split second. It says “GoGJ&RP”.
Interesting subliminal messaging…
It’s decent. Though I think he used this music in other videos.
I like videos that are more in your face, like John Dennis’s video with Nancy Pelosi as the wicked witch of the west. Now THAT is a political ad!
Well done video.
saaa-weeeeeet!
Comedy Central’s political satire website – http://www.indecisionforever.com/blog/2012/05/17/gary-johnson-really-shooting-for-the-gallagher-demographic-video – poked fun at Gary Johnson’s last commercial about exploding watermelons. Colbert or Stewart will likely talk about it on their show when they come back from break. This is a great way to get free media attention.
Great video! Very powerful and inspiring!