18 responses so far ↓

• 1 paulie // Nov 3, 2010 at 12:35 am

  Looks like LP will fall shy in NY

  With 92% reporting

  Andrew Cuomo
  Dem. 2,406,578 61.7%
  Carl Paladino
  Rep. 1,317,312 33.8%
  Howie Hawkins
  Green 54,624 1.4%
  Warren Redlich
  Lib. 42,472 1.1%
  Jimmy McMillan
  Ind. 38,451 1.0%
  Kristin Davis
  Ind. 22,462 0.6%
  Charles Barron
  Frdm. 20,159 0.5%

• 2 Catholic Trotskyist // Nov 3, 2010 at 12:47 am

  So despite all the hype for McMillan, Naderite criminal Hawkins did best among the third parties. Sad, sad, sad.
  But the Catholic Trotskyist revolution is alive and well in New York. Forward march!

• 3 Kimberly Wilder // Nov 3, 2010 at 5:23 am

  I was at the Hofstra debate where McMillan stood out. The audience was clearly excited by his antics, but not confident in him as a candidate. People were half laughing with him, and half laughing at him.
  So, I am not surprised of the outcome for the Rent Is Too Damn High Party.
  Still McMillan proved his point, forced people to think about the situation of the poor and about rent and living expenses. And, he became a leader in his own right, inspiring others to get angry and/or get empowered and/or make art about their lives!

• 4 Kimberly Wilder // Nov 3, 2010 at 5:28 am

  Will the Libertarians receive ballot status in New York?

  Maybe. (I will peg it at a 51% chance.)

  According to The Washington Post stats, with 97% of precincts reporting, The Libertarian Governor candidate Warren Redlich has 44,696 votes. 50,000 votes are needed to get ballot status.

  Here is what is interesting: New York just switched to new voting machines. With the old machines, we would almost always pick up a lot of votes after election day, on the recanvass. That was because the results were read in by pollworkers who opened up the back of the machine and called in results. So, a lot of them just ignored the bottom of the ballot, and assumed that it was helpful enough to report in Dem and Rep votes.

  Still, with 41 thousandish on Election Day four years ago for Malachy for Governor, the Green Party of NY did not get to 50,000 after the recanvass.

  Now, with the new election machines, that are electronic scanners, we don’t have a precedent for the accuracy of the Election Night total.

  So, it could be, that more of the actual votes are already reported, if a machine is transmitting it in some way, or if the report lends itself to the pollworkers calling in third party results.

  And, Redlich is higher than McCourt was on Election Night 2006.

  So…

  A question…

  Good luck to Redlich and the Libertarians…

• 5 paulie // Nov 3, 2010 at 6:44 am

  According to The Washington Post stats, with 97% of precincts reporting, The Libertarian Governor candidate Warren Redlich has 44,696 votes. 50,000 votes are needed to get ballot status.

  Assuming no great disparity between precinct sizes, that would mean about 46,000 votes total. To get 50 k would require over 5,000 votes out of just 3% of the precincts, that is, we would have had to have had about 3% of the vote in the last 3% of precincts to be counted, vs. about 1% statewide.

  I don’t know how the machine issue you are talking about will effect things.

• 6 paulie // Nov 3, 2010 at 7:57 am

  Message from Sundwall on Redlich facebook group:

  Subject: Thanks to all.
  I just want to share a few quick thoughts to everyone. And I apologize in advance if you didn’t take your name off the group and expect me to.

  Over 62K votes went to McMillan and Davis. Any other year without Jimmy’s cached novelty and whatever the Davis draw represented for thr LP vote, we might have pulled this off with well over 50K. Looking at our Gillibrand Senate vote, the likely result would have been similar this year, 17K-ish. [ p: huh? typo?]

  Given the fact that Paladino also pulled most of the oxygen out of the Tea Party room, it was still a great effort on our part.We ran TV and radio ads, had a campaign song and experienced last minute grassroots enthusiasm. Our media exposure and debate success is our best explanation for 45K+. The next campaign will be hard pressed to get these results.

  Our crowning achievement may have been the removal of Roger Stone as a Republican player and any influence he hoped to keep.
  He will no longer be on Fred Dicker’s radio show at least. I’m sure he’ll slither into something soon enough.

  On the brighter side, I had some time to fix my chain saw yesterday and will be cutting and splitting wood for a week like I should have been doing in April or August.

  Thanks again to everyone in this FB group.

  Sincerely,

  Eric Sundwall

• 7 Brian G. // Nov 3, 2010 at 8:05 am

  Has anyone seen a breakdown of the votes that Cuomo and Paladino received? Cuomo had the Democrat, Independence and Working Family Party lines and Paladino had the Repubican, Conservative and his own Taxpayer Party lines
  I’m especially wondering if he got 50,000 votes on the Taxpayer Party line.

• 8 Richard Winger // Nov 3, 2010 at 10:36 am

  In 1998, the Working Families Party was told, as of 6 days after the election, that it only had 48,000 votes for Governor, so everyone thought it had failed. But when the official canvass came out, they had 51,000, but that wasn’t known until a month after the election. It is not true that 97% of the New York vote has been counted. It is that 97% of the precincts have had their regular votes counted, but there are still many provision votes and absentee votes to be counted. I think Redlich will barely get 50,000.

• 9 paulie // Nov 3, 2010 at 10:38 am

  Hmmm, I hope you’re right. Kimberly mentioned an issue with the machines being different now, do you know how that will impact this?

• 10 Mark Axinn // Nov 3, 2010 at 12:22 pm

  Hearty congratulations to Howie Hawkins and all those who supported the Green Party this year.

  Yes, we are cautiously optimistic about Warren getting to 50K, but even if he does not, I am very proud of the terrific job he did this year, nearly doubling our previous highest vote count for Governor (24,611 in 1990).

  Congratulations to the entire Libertarian slate, and a special thanks to Eric Sundwall and Jeff Russell too for all their behind-the-scenes work both during the petitioning process and throughout the campaign.

  Mark Axinn
  Cair, LPNY

• 11 Mark Axinn // Nov 3, 2010 at 12:24 pm

  Well, you would think I could at least spell “Chair”!

• 12 paulie // Nov 3, 2010 at 12:31 pm

  If you are functioning on the same amount of sleep as me, as I suspect you probably are, you are doing well if you can spell your own name.

• 13 pete healey // Nov 3, 2010 at 2:22 pm

  As I recall, in 1998, Al “Grandpa” Lewis was able to gain between 2,000 and 3,000 votes from absentee and affadavit ballots after the machine totals were all in. That’s how the Greens got above 50,000 the first time.
  I’m surprised at the extremely low totals for the Freedom Party. Maybe Barron didn’t campaign much. I assumed all along that his party (and the WFP) would hurt the Green vote total in NYC, as has happened in the past. The Greens did much better than I expected there and that seems to be how they exceeded 50,000.

• 14 paulie // Nov 3, 2010 at 2:31 pm

  As I recall, in 1998, Al “Grandpa” Lewis was able to gain between 2,000 and 3,000 votes from absentee and affadavit ballots after the machine totals were all in. That’s how the Greens got above 50,000 the first time.

  Yes, but now the interesting question is the impact of the new voting machines on that. Any insights?

• 15 pete healey // Nov 3, 2010 at 4:27 pm

  The votes that were cast on paper twelve years ago will be basically the same as now- absentee ballots and affidavit ballots (when for example a college student is challenged on residency issues or someone moved from one district to another without changing their address with the elections board). This also appears to be an extremely low turnout election (just over 4 million instead of the usual more than 5 million), and I’m not sure how that might affect the numbers of such paper ballots, but I mention it especially because there are unusually high percentages of third-party votes (without even counting the cross-endosed major party votes for Working Families and Conservative and Taxpayer and Independence Parties, which aren’t available yet).

• 16 pete healey // Nov 3, 2010 at 5:15 pm

  I lied about the previous turnouts in New York State governor election years. This appears to be a smaller turnout than usual but only by a couple hundred thousand and not by a million or more as I stated above. I checked.

• 17 Libertarian and Green Parties retain ballot access in Texas | Independent Political Report // Nov 4, 2010 at 5:53 pm

  [...] news from other big states which require large amounts of signatures in a short time, the Greens gained ballot access in New York, but lost it in Illinois. Both parties were among those that kept ballot access in California (see [...]

• 18 Roger Snyder // Nov 4, 2010 at 10:06 pm

  The absentee and provisional ballots should be about the same. How many broken scanners and maybe uncounted boxes of ballots is unknown.

  It also seems that the number of absentee ballots is growing percentage wise. People like the convenience, even if they are not supposed to use them except if needed.

  –Roger

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