Your election predictions?

A general question for all our readers: what results do you predict in this Tuesday’s elections? Your replies can cover any state, all alternative party and independent candidates, ballot propositions, and, since Wayne Root opened the door, feel free to prognosticate the Democrats’ and Republicans’ chances as well.

Have at ‘em in the comments, but remember: anything you say can be used in a future IPR post.

64 thoughts on “Your election predictions?

  1. Darryl W. Perry

    Prediction #1 – 90% (or more) of incumbents seeking re-election will retain “their” seats
    Prediction #2 – 100% of seats in Congress will be won by members of the Republicratic Duopoly
    Prediction #3 – A “minor party” or “independent”candidate will get a higher percentage of the vote than a “major party” candidate for at least one statewide race in Colorado, Florida & SC

  2. pete healey

    Rent is Too Damn High (Jimmy McMillan) Party will be the only one of 5 independent candidacies in New York State that will achieve the 50,000 vote threshold to reach automatic ballot status for the next four years. The others are competing against each other and suffering from lack of charisma (Greens and Freedom Parties compete for the “disaffected left” vote, the Taxpayers, Anti-Prohibition and Libertarian Parties compete for the “disaffected right” vote). “Grandpa” Al Lewis proved twelve years ago that, within the confines of the currrent system, you need a gimmick, and the only gimmick in this race (apart from Carl Paladino whose gimmicky credentials have suffered from his hoodlum speech) is “The Rent is. Too. Damn. High”.

  3. George Tatevosyan

    At least 3 congressional elections stolen by hacking of electronic machines in districts where the boards of elections are controlled by incumbent appointees and their data processing vendors. Election result lawsuits and challenges to vote disqualification processes for late receipt of mail-in ballots and discarded paper ballots (especially in Alaska). Republican doing worse than expected, 3rd party and independents doing better than ever before and mainstream media downplaying this development. PS. Please vote!

  4. Robert Capozzi

    In the morning, the sun will rise. It will set in the evening. Between those events, there will be daylight. Before and after them, it will be dark.

  5. Robert Capozzi

    Thanks, Paulie. I don’t understand the desire to predict the future. What ever happens will happen.

    Seems like we should just do our best today and let the chips fall where they may. Anxieties about the future doesn’t make the present any better.

  6. paulie Post author

    It’s fun, creates conversation, and lots of people are into it.

    Participation is not mandatory and we have numerous other topics dealing with the present as well as the past.

  7. Derek

    My predictions are as follows.

    - Chafee wins the Governor’s race in RI
    - Tancredo could win or lose the race in CO but it will be a 3% swing either way
    - The ME independent will finish in a strong 2nd in the Governor’s race
    - Clements will finish with 25% or more
    - Crist will get 30%ish but will finish in 2nd
    - Whitney will poll 5%ish for Governor in IL

    That’s all for now.

  8. Daniel Surman

    I know the gubernatorial rankings I made fell on their face in certain races. I didn’t anticpate Cutler’s surge and gave a CNN poll for Cohen way too much weight.

  9. Catholic Trotskyist

    Democrats keep the House, losing only about 25 seats. Democrats lose only 1 net seat in the Senate; we will lose Arkansas, North Dakota and Indiana, while winning all of the close races we need to win to hold our seats, and upset Republicans in Missouri and New Hampshire!
    Joe Miller survives Murkowski write-in campaign in Alaska, Rand Paul wins Kentucky, Rubio wins Florida, Tancredo loses in Colorado. Democrats generally do well with governorships.
    Libertarians, Greens and Constitution Party do slightly better than in previous elections for many races, but don’t come even close to winning.

  10. Best We Can Do? [Lake]

    Darryl W. Perry // Oct 31, 2010:
    “………. voter turnout is still “low” at around 50% of registered voters …………”

    In California, over half of the votes will NOT be walk in, polling place, Tuesday, November Second affairs ……

  11. Richard Winger

    I predict the “other” vote (that is, the vote for independent candidates and minor parties) for the top office on the ballot in each state will be 6% nationally. By “top office” I mean Governor. For states with no gubernatorial race this year, it means U.S. Senate. For the handful of states without either Governor or US Senator up, it is whatever is at the top of the ballot.

    If 6% of the voters vote “other” for the top office on the ballot, that will be the best percentage of voters voting “other” in a midterm year for the top office since 1930.

  12. David F. Nolan

    I will go farther out on a limb than Robert Capozzi @5. Millions of people will vote. Millions of others will not. 435 people will be elected to the U.S. House of Reprehensibles, where the two major parties will each win at least 190 seats. The crazy lady from Delaware will not be elected to the U.S. Senate; the crazy lady from San Francisco will be re-elected to the House. Obama will still be President on November 3.

  13. George Whitfield

    The Libertarian party obtains ballot status in New York, New Hampshire and Iowa. Also the following Libertarian Party candidates for state legislature win election:

    Bill Yarbrough, Ohio
    http://www.yarbroughforohio.com

    Robert Nowotny, Texas http://needtovote.com

    Heather Scott, Tennessee
    http://www.electheatherscott.com

    Tim Mullen, Pennsylvania http://www.votemullen.com

    Rex Bell, Indiana http://electrexbell.com

    Lawrence Binsky, Ohio http://www.lbinsky.com

    Christine Smith, Colorado http://electchristinesmith.com

    Nicholas De Laat, Wyoming http://votenickdelaat.weebly.com

    Brendan Kelly, New Hampshire http://www.brendankellylpnh.com

  14. George Whitfield

    The Libertarian Party wins ballot status in New York, New Hampshire and Iowa.

    The following Libertarian Party candidates for state legislature win election:

    Bill Yarbrough, Ohio http://www.yarbroughforohio.com

    Robert Nowotny, Texas http://needtovote.com

    Heather Scott, Tennessee http://www.electheatherscott.com

    Tim Mullen, Pennsylvania http://www.votemullen.com

    Rex Bell, Indiania http://electrexbell.com

    Lawrence Binsky, Ohio http://www.lbinsky.com

    Christine Smith, Colorado http://electchristinesmith.com

    Nicholas De Laat, Wyoming http://votenickdelaat.weebly.com

    Brendan Kelly, New Hampshire http://www.brendankellylpnh.com

  15. JT

    Milnes will complain that nobody tried PLAS. Milnes will call many people losers and assholes. Milnes will beg for $ and sleep in his trailer.

  16. George Whitfield

    Sorry about posting twice above (21 & 23).

    Paulie, I was not following Illinois as closely. The percentage requirement is 5% which is higher than the states I predicted but I just read where Julie Fox won a newspapaer endorsement for Illinois State Comptroller. So perhaps she will get the needed percentage. I hope so.

    Darryl,
    Thanks for mentioning Andrea Garcia. I hadn’t heard about her. She has a good website and received a local newspaper endorsement as well. I wish I had learned about her earlier in the campaign. By the way, my 9 year old daughter likes you name. When she read it yesterday from the internet, she kept repeating it in a chant. She said it sounded good, had a nice ring to it!

  17. Darryl W. Perry

    The newspaper that endorsed her is the largest paper in Arizona.

    I’ll be attending a watch party in Mesa, AZ with her, Barry Hess, David Nolan & many other fine people from Arizona.

  18. George Phillies

    @24

    And the LNC will continue not to spend time on contesting elections, or whatever. As the latest episode, National Chair Mark Hinkle purged LNC Regional Representative Rachel Hawkridge from the Convention Oversight Committee Committee.

    You can read her responses to the accusations — false, she indicates — that Hinkle made against her on GoldAmericaGroup dot com, namely

    http://goldamericagroup.com/diary/229/hawkridge-purged-from-convention-oversight

  19. paulie Post author

    Milnes will complain that nobody tried PLAS. Milnes will call many people losers and assholes. Milnes will beg for $ and sleep in his trailer.

    You now have taken the safe bet crown away from Mr. Capozzi above.

  20. Catholic Trotskyist

    Chafee wins Rhode Island governorship; Cutler comes in a distant third in Maine.
    Mike Kavlan gets less than 1% of the vote.

    More people become convinced on election night that Catholic Trotskyism or PLAS is necessary.

  21. Robert Capozzi

    gp30, interesting. I don’t think it’s appropriate to publicly share correspondence of this sort, but at this point, were I on the LNC, I’d assume that anyone will make public anything I say ever. I’d be super hyper-careful in what I said. Free flowly conversation cannot be had on that body if confidences are not kept. Perhaps that’s a desireable outcome.

    I didn’t care to read the entire exchange. It’s interesting how Hawkridge appears to play the victim, accusing Hinkle of discussing her with Starr! And Hinkle saying he hadn’t. Since Hinkle gives all indications of being an abolitionist L, this may give us clues that political ideology may not be what generates intra-party dysfunction.

    It may just be a lack of civility.

  22. citizen1

    Predictions…
    #1. In CO the governors race will be decided by less than 1%.
    #2. Janine Hansen will win.
    #3. Republicans will win control of the the US House and US Senate.
    #4. Republicans will but the same losers that helped get us into this mess back into leadership position squeezing out and marginalizing to the best of there ability any good Republicans that get elected.
    #5. John Mertens will get 1% of the vote for US Senate in CT thereby setting up the possibility of a Connecticut for Lieberman candidate running against Lieberman.
    #6. Chelene nightingale will get the most votes of any AIPCA candidate further frustrating the hijackers of the party.

  23. Kimberly Wilder

    I am not a Libertarian.

    But, I looked quickly at the e-mail link, and here is my opinion, anyway:

    If an officer of an organization or committee secretly asks someone to resign – or worse, threatens that someone should resign – that is just wrong and dangerous to the integrity of the organization.

    If there is not a basic transparency about how people come and go from committees, than the whole system is messed up and arbitrary.

    If it is the leaders that exercise the privilege of secret messages to committee members trying to steer them in secret, or make them resign, then there is no democracy in the organization. Only dictatorial leadership from the top.

    On another, more human level, it also makes the organization totally susceptible to the worst kind of group think. Because, decisions are made only with the handful of people with the power or audacity to keep power clutched to themselves.

    Many years ago, I was in a caucus of a third party where this kind of stuff happened all the time. The leadership was controlling the whole organization by giving secret warnings to people that they should not post critical e-mails, secret scoldings of people, and then, secret dismissals of people.

    Probably, people who care about the health of the Libertarian Party should worry about Rachel Hawkridge, and sort that out.

    But, people should really check into if Mark Hinkle has done this to other people. (The people secret threats are done to are often to afraid to speak up, or so indignant they leave without telling anyone.)

    Someone should make a policy right now that says officers cannot write off-list to committee people.

    And, someone should demand from Mark a list of anyone who he has ever asked to resign before.

    And/or, go through lists of resignations, and do a quick and polite e-mail to folks asking if they had any concerns, or would like to state why they left the committee.

    When one incident like this gets exposed, there is usually a lot behind it. And, it should be a teachable moment for the group, a time to reflect and improve.

    (Albeit, starting after Tuesday, I guess!!!)

  24. Robert Capozzi

    kw, ah, now that’s a different point, and a great teachable moment, agreed. If Hinkle felt Hawkridge wasn’t carrying her weight on an important committee, it DOES seem appropriate for an effective leader to light a fire or suggest a change. That seems very much in bounds.

    If neither was successful, the way Hinkle appears to’ve have done this was heavy-handed and by all indications unnecessary.

    Making a “federal case” out of the matter seems contra-indicated. The LNC is a volunteer organization, and these volunteers then volunteer for committee assignments, I do believe.

    My sense is that Hinkle and Hawkridge are both perceived to be in the “radical” or “abolitionist” camp in the LP. I sometimes get the sense that the cause of liberty is secondary to the cause of grandstanding, perhaps on a subconscious level, among the abolitionists especially. Some seem to equate “civility” with “selling out.” I’d suggest that misses the point.

  25. paulie Post author

    @30, 35, 37

    That will get its own thread. I’m trying to decide whether I should go ahead and make one now or wait until the election is over. For the moment, I ask that we put that topic on hold until it gets its own thread and stick to election predictions here.

  26. Robert Capozzi

    kw, this is second hand, but I’ve heard that Hinkle has explicitly made it a mission of his to check and contain another LNC member, a former rival for LNC Chair.

    This would not surprise me, as it’s my understanding that Hinkle was close to Dave Bergland, a former leader in the LP who took/takes a very absolutist view of L-ism. Of course, people can change, and I’d hope for Hinkle (and Bergland) that he’s reflected on the extreme absolutist view, if he in fact held it in the past as Bergland did/does.

    A healthy organization knows how to create a sense of like mindedness while maintaining some tolerance for variations on a theme. Absolutism doesn’t allow for such tolerance. Therefore, absolutism doesn’t lead to healthy organizations.

  27. George Phillies

    @37

    Not enough Democratic Socialists will be defeated. not enough Republican Fascists will be defeated.

    The Republican leadership in the Sneate will find that one of those Tea type people was elected — Paul, perhaps Angle, likely not Miller or O’Donnell — and realize that they really should have worked much harder to defeat those people in the primary, especially about the time they need a vote from Angle and her fee is a vote on her amendment repealing the 21st amendment.

    And, of you were curious, the LNC has been spending the time arguing parliamentary foolishness and other silly issues, receiving one message from one officer saying they should try worrying about the election. But out of respect to Paulie I will post on that after the election.

  28. Peter Gemma

    Crist (FL) will come in a poor third (how the mighty have fallen – heh heh heh) … Chafee (RI) will win (barely) … Miller (AK) will squeak through but it’ll be days of counting/re-counting absentee ballots; Murkowski will pout the rest of her born days.

  29. paulie Post author

    Crist (FL) will come in a poor third

    Now that’s what I call a bold prediction. Have you seen the recent polls on that one?

  30. Peter Gemma

    The polls be damned … my gut is rumbling (even after pizza).
    ;-)

    The relentless pounding Crist is getting for being a wheeler-dealer/flip-flopper is resonating. Clinton says the Real Democrat is Meek (if you want to vote for a Democrat, why switch to someone who has not been on your side his entire political career?) Also, the Democrat base is not really loose thanks in part to Alex Sink.

    The majority of independents like Rubio, leaving Crist with disaffected GOPers (who, because of their luke-warm feelings about Rick Scott, may just stay home) and some independents. Crist at 30-35% just doesn’t add up. Prediction:
    Rubio: 48-50%
    Meek: 24-26%
    Crist: 22-24%

    BTW:
    http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/poll-crist-slumping-toward-third-place-senate-race-between-marco-rubio-kendrick-meek

  31. Dominik

    Whintey will get 5% in Illinois. LeAlan might get double digits with African American vote. Democrats will blame illinois loss on Greens. Krapen will lose because of the funky issues with the voting machines.

    Tancredo will win Colorado causing Republican Split.

  32. Pingback: Wayne Root updates his election predictions, expects bigger gains for Republicans than he did before | Independent Political Report

  33. Kimberly Wilder

    Need more predictions:

    I thought this thread would be rockin’ with all the bloggers, pundits, partisans and critics we have here.

    Come on? Are people afraid of going on record.

    I was hoping for a long list to check people’s mettle against when the results come out!!

  34. paulie Post author

    Might be because it’s buried on page 3 or 4 or whatever by now. I’m running out of energy, but if you are still awake enough, it would be cool if you make a new thread quoting some of the predictions and asking for more.

  35. Ross Levin

    Predictions…Whitney will not get 5% in Illinois and that will be a major setback for the Greens there. But LeAlan Jones will get about 7% in the Senate election. He’ll do better in the special election than the actual one.

    Jesse Johnson will get about 5% of the vote in West Virginia.

    Ben Manski, Jeremy Karpen, and Hugh Giordano will either win or be very close to winning. Some Greens in Maine will do equally good.

    Lynne Williams, running for Maine Senate, will come in second in her race but not win.

    Tom Tancredo will lose by less than one percent.

    There will be a royal screw up with the ballots in Alaska, as there will be in other places, but it will get more attention in Alaska.

    There will be tons of problems with electronic voting machines.

    John Monds in Georgia will get 8% and force a runoff.

    Lincoln Chafee will win. Charlie Christ will get about 35% but lose.

    That’s all I got.

  36. George Phillies

    The House outcome is more likely to be close to one of the extremes: not a 50 seat change but a 25 or 75 change seat change. If you trust Gallup, who has an enormous record of doing well, look for a 57 seat change.

    The sure prediction: Not enough Democrats will lose. Not enough Republicans will lose. The American people look very sure to lose.

  37. Ross Levin

    Hopefully some kind of large, legitimate, organized movement will emerge against corporatism like the populists/socialists/grangers did in the 1800s when the Republicans get into power, not much changes, and people start to realize what trick is being played on them. But that’s really hopeful.

  38. Cody Quirk

    For Nevada, one thing I do predict that will happen is Sandoval will become our next Governor, yet the IAP will be electing several candidates to local office here.

  39. Aaron Starr

    @35

    I’m going to take this opportunity to defend Mark Hinkle, my good friend of over 20 years. I have served with him and I have insight into how he approaches situations. We have turned to each other for advice over the years.

    The Policy Manual grants the LNC Chair authority to appoint members to the Convention Oversight Committee (COC). Anyone serving in that position serves at the pleasure of the Chair. Obviously, Mark decided that one member was no longer suited for the position. That is his prerogative.

    Knowing Mark, I’m convinced that he solicited counsel from trusted advisors prior to making the decision. He surely would have received input from David Nolan, the person he appointed to chair the COC. Evidently, David must have insisted she was not cut out for the committee work; otherwise, she would still be there.

    Anyway, from what I am reading here, it appears Mark offered her an opportunity to resign, which was the right approach.

    Frankly, it was inappropriate for her to refuse to resign. It left Mark little choice but to terminate her.

  40. Robert Capozzi

    as, thanks for clearing up the prerogative and powers of the chair. I’m not surprised that thems the rules.

    My reading of that email exchange is that it was heavy-handed. And putting it in an email, esp to Hawkridge!, seems poor judgment to me. Anyone paying attention will come to the conclusion that she gives Phillies all sorts of private LNC emails. Assume it’s public.

  41. Kimberly Wilder

    Well…

    As I wrote in a separate article, The Washington Post was not very flattering to third party and independent candidates.

    Still, I think that their elections prediction page will be fun to compare to the after-the-fact reality. For what it is worth:

    The Washington Post predicts:

    * House composition: 232 Republicans, 202 Democrats

    * Senate composition: 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 2 Independents

    (At least they had to write the word “Independents”. We can thank Lieberman and Sanders for that. Though, who can really thank Lieberman for anything????)

  42. Thomas L. Knapp

    Bob@57,

    1) As one of the leaked emails notes, Phillies was getting LNC emails from somewhere long before Rachel was even on the LNC.

    2) There’s no such thing as a “private LNC email.” The LNC’s actions and discussions are subject to inspection by the membership at any time and to any degree, whether they like it or not. They are always in the wrong if they’re trying to hide what they’re doing, and it is never wrong for what they are doing to be revealed.

  43. Robert Capozzi

    tk, I didn’t see that GP has multiple sources, but I’m not sure what that proves.

    If the LNC should not be able to speak candidly and off the top of their heads, then maybe they should just have a web page for intra-LNC communications. It may be your opinion that all their discussions should be public, but I’m not aware of any prohibition that they can’t talk among themselves in a free flowing and safe way, is there one?

    If they have to measure each and every one of their words while communicating among themselves, then what we’ll get is a less effective LNC (which is saying something!). Or they start caucusing on the phone to avoid any public record.

    That seems to me more dysfunctional than the current configuration. If a person’s life was one big Truman Show and the person knew it, the person might severely repress all his or her communication and behavior, knowing that anyone at any time could take anything you said out of context to ridicule you. Risk taking and thinking outside the box would give way to homogenized comportment. Positive initiative would be driven into secret knowing that all eyes are on every move.

    It’s hard enough to be a 3rd party, given the large institutional obstacles to effectiveness. Making it harder strikes me as contra-indicated.

    It will be interesting to see how the LNCC does in the coming years. They don’t seem to have to labor under the hyper-scrutinty that the LNC does. I can even imagine that the LNCC could outstrip the LNC in dollars raised and spent, with the LNC mired in petty intra-committee wrangling.

    IMO.

  44. Pingback: Rachel Hawkridge Purged from Libertarian National Convention Oversight, Alleges It Was Unjust | Independent Political Report

  45. Aaron Starr

    @60

    It will be interesting to see how the LNCC does in the coming years. They don’t seem to have to labor under the hyper-scrutinty that the LNC does. I can even imagine that the LNCC could outstrip the LNC in dollars raised and spent, with the LNC mired in petty intra-committee wrangling.

    That is an ambitious and worthwhile goal for a start-up, such as the LNCC.

    I hope that within a few years we are able to raise more money than the LNC raises today. Having said that, I also hope the LNC will be raising 10 times what we raise at that point.

    Having both national committees of the Libertarian Party increase their numbers of donors and money raised would be a positive development for our party and our goal of scaling back the power of government.

  46. Pingback: Your Election Predictions- A Retrospective View | Independent Political Report

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