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Libertarian Donors Club Update

October 12th, 2010 · 63 Comments

Nick Youngers has provided an updated list of candidates his fledgling group plans to promote. For more background on this project, see this post. On a related note, you may want to check out the LNCC, which has been similarly promoting and supporting candidates in a variety of races across the country. [Note, I did a little bit of formatting to make this easier to read, without changing the content]

In my first two letters I promised I’d be back with an updated list of exciting, important, Libertarian races for 2010.  We have found nine more races to add to our original list of four – they are listed below.
 
We have received hundreds of email responses from individuals supporting and pleading for dozens of outstanding candidates, and it has been quite a challenge to select the best opportunities when there are so many who are truly deserving, qualified, tireless campaigners in the cause of liberty.
 
For anyone who didn’t receive my first letter, you can find it here:
http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2010/09/nick-youngers-libertarian-donors-club/
 
We have discussed dozens of campaigns with numerous Libertarians around the country and wish to thank:  Richard Winger, David Nolan, William Redpath, Don Wills, Aaron Starr, Mark Rutherford, and innumerable State LP chairs, Activists and Candidates for their input.
 
We have selected campaigns according to our three goals:
*   Statewide campaigns that are active, running radio & TV spots to win Ballot Status.
*   State Rep or State Senate candidates with serious campaigns and a real chance at victory.
*   And just one campaign based on the best opportunity for a “breakout” in media coverage or
              discussion based on the best possible TV advertising or other special factors.
 
Ballot Status Races:
 
The Libertarian Donors Club has added support for the Iowa Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Eric Cooper to our list of statewide, ballot status candidates.  This means we’ll be working on Ballot Status for Iowa, New Hampshire, and New York. 
 
Think about the potential for early campaigning for the 2012 LP presidential nod.  LP major contenders and prospects could get out on the stump early and get nationwide coverage in Iowa and New Hampshire.  Being on in NY would add credibility in the eyes of the media.  And of course, Ballot Status won now will save the Libertarian Party tens of thousands of dollars for ballot drives we won’t have to do in 2012.
 
                                                       New Hampshire primary.
… think of the possibilities …                   Iowa Caucuses.
                                                     New York media credibility.
 
And yes, LP Ballot Status is possible in all three of these states. What it will take is money.  Lots of donors making their best donation can make this happen. But, we need to get everyone to donate.  Everyone should send something.  Even if it’s just $5 to each campaign, a mere $65 to cover all 13 candidates, and yet the payoff could be amazing. 
 
But we need hundreds of donors now.  Forward this letter to every LP member, donor, your friends, your Aunt Linda … tell them all how important this is. Ask them to donate.  Ask yourself to donate.  The time is now.  Please do it today.  There are only 3 weeks left, so every hour counts.
 
And maybe you can do more, maybe you could give $10 to each campaign, only $130 total.  Or target our efforts for Ballot Access and give $100 each to our three Statewide candidates to win ballot status in their states and $10 each to the rest for only $400.
 
What if we win Ballot Status? Who could campaign?  Numerous individuals could make early visits, testing the waters in seeking the LP nomination for 2012.  Activists could set up events for Mary Ruwart, Wayne Root, Steve Kubby and any other LPers – pick your favorite – who might want to campaign early in New Hampshire and Iowa. This will help to put the LP in the big leagues for the national media spotlight in the early decision states.  LP insiders and interested outsiders could be encouraged to dip a toe in.  The Libertarian Party can finally begin to face outward to attract the general public as part of our nomination process.  Yes, this could be the most important Libertarian donation you’ve ever made.
 
And don’t forget that winning ballot status in any one of these states will pay off by saving tens of thousands of dollars in petitioning costs in 2010.  This is an investment that can truly pay off in dollars saved and media coverage earned.
 
                                   We need to win ballot status in these states:
 
                                  *   New Hampshire   *   Iowa   *   New York   *
 
It all begins with you, the individual donor, making your best choices from the list below and giving your maximum contribution … My own personal donations are listed below, along with our recommendations for big donors and the legal maximum donations …
 
… and George Whitfield wants you to know that he is contributing $250 to each and every one of these 13 campaigns.  Thank you George!
 
… but every donation counts, so please give what you can, pick your favorites, target the best of our best … Please help us win Ballot Status in our key early media states … Please help us give our hard working, active campaigns the best shot at victory … and Please take a look at our breakout media candidate, watch his ads, and send him an extra donation to increase the air time for these spots on three major networks in Columbus Ohio …

Statewide races:                               Goal:  Ballot Status:
 
Eric Cooper          IA     Governor      2%                http://www.coopersmallergovernment.com/
 
Iowa is a small state where the LP has a reasonable prospect of winning ballot status with 2% of the vote.  Eric Cooper was already polling at 2% before beginning his aggressive, targeted radio campaign.  Cooper is campaigning actively and has recently received a major political endorsement.  Just $15,000 in additional funding could put the Iowa LP over the 2%.   Let’s invest here and in New Hampshire for the added effect of setting up the Libertarian Party with ballot status in the two early decision states in the 2012 presidential primaries.
 
Donations can be made through the website by credit card or paypal.
Checks should be made payable to:  “Free Citizens for Cooper/Weltha”  and mailed to:  Eric Cooper for Governor, 902 Burnett Ave, Ames, IA   50010-6132
 
John Babiarz        NH    Governor     4%                 http://johnbabiarz.org/
 
New Hampshire is a small state with only 2  Congressional Districts.  John Babiarz is campaigning actively. The Babiarz for Governor campaign needs funds to be used for radio and TV ads on the one major broadcast station in NH, major radio stations and cable TV.  The Babiarz campaign has a good chance of getting 4% of the vote which would win Ballot Status here. In fact, the New Hampshire LP has won ballot status here before, at 3%, so the big-party legislature raised the requirement to 4%.  Don’t let them get away with that! … A quick infusion of $12,000 could make the difference with a major payoff for 2012 and beyond.  Please join me by investing in this ballot status campaign.
 
Donations can be made through the website by credit card or paypal.
Checks should be made payable to: “Babiarz for Governor” and mailed to:  Babiarz for Governor, 12 Liberty Lane, Grafton NH 03240.

 
Warren Redlich     NY   Governor      50,000 votes   http://wredlich.com/ny/
 
New York is an important state in the eyes of the media and has a large population. It only takes 50,000 votes to win ballot status and yet the LP has never succeeded in doing so.  This year, however, the LP has an active campaigner, an elected official, running as our candidate for Governor. Redlich has been invited to debate the field … And the erratic, irascible behavior of the Republican nominee leaves a vacuum to be filled.  The Redlich for Governor campaign is seeking funds to run radio, targeted cable TV, and major network TV in upstate areas.  My estimate is that the Redlich campaign needs $35,000 more, this week, to have a real shot at 50,000 votes -  they will put all donor club donations on TV and radio.  The campaign has raised thousands of dollars since my first letter, but they need more.  Please join me in an LP breakthrough in New York.     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7w15CYS4yo
 
Donations can be made through the website by credit card or paypal. 
Checks should be made payable to:  “Redlich for Governor” and mailed to:  Redlich for Governor, 255 Washington Ave Ext., Suite 108, Albany, NY 12205.

 
State Senate:                                    Goal:   To Win:
 
Bill Yarbrough      OH                                            www.yarbroughforohio.com
 
Bill Yarbrough in Ohio State Senate district 3 is airing radio ads right now (listen on YouTube).  He is campaigning actively district wide with yard signs, door-to-door, personal appearances and numerous endorsements.  Yarbrough’s district encompasses three Ohio State House districts, two of which have hot LP campaigns and falls under the media umbrella provided by the Irvine for Congress campaign.  These campaigns are coordinating their efforts for maximum coverage with yard signs and door-to-door efforts.  The Yarbrough campaign will end with a district wide targeted direct mail effort.  Funding this campaign is a must.   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0zxeqZrSBg&feature=player_embedded
 
Donations can be made through the website by credit card or paypal. 
Checks should be made payable to:  “Yarbrough for Ohio” and mailed to:  Yarbrough for Ohio, 6300 Hilltop Trail Dr, New Albany, OH  43054
 
 
State House of Representatives:       Goal:   To Win:
 
Robert Nowotny     TX                                            http://needtovote.com/
 
Robert Nowotny is the Libertarian candidate for Texas State Representative, District 73.   He has been running full time since January in his four county, rural district in a two-way race against an unpopular one term Republican.  His signs are up, he is already running radio and newspaper ads and plans additional buys. He plans a final direct mail campaign to district voters. He needs $6,000 in additional contributions to make this happen.  Many in Texas feel that his campaign represents the best chance for victory in a state with one of the most active State LP organizations.  Robert Nowotny could be our first elected State Rep in Texas. 
 
Donations can be made through the website by credit card or paypal. 
Checks should be made payable to:  “Robert Nowotny, Libertarian Candidate”  and mailed to: Robert Nowotny, Libertarian Candidate for State Representative, 6001 Creekwood Pass, Spring Branch, TX 78070

Heather Scott        TN                                           http://www.electheatherscott.com/
 
Heather Scott has been elected twice to the County Commission.  She is running in a 4-way race for an open seat in Tennessee’s 57th House district.  Scott is a known and respected contender, having proven her electability, and she is participating in community events, forums and debates sponsored by local Tea Party groups and the media.   She is running an active campaign throughout her district in Wilson and Sumner counties with yard signs, door-to-door literature and newspaper ads and radio. Strict ballot laws that were recently overturned have prevented Tennessee Libertarians from running under our party label, so she will appear as an independent on the ballot.  This is another serious campaign close to victory.  All new contributions will be spent on radio and TV advertising.   Our donations could spell the difference.
 
Donations can be made through the website by credit card or paypal.
Checks should be made payable to:  “Heather Scott for State Representative” and mailed to:  Heather Scott for State Representative, P.O. Box 314, Mt. Juliet, TN  37121.
 
Tim Mullen            PA                                           www.votemullen.com
 
Tim Mullen is out every day campaigning door-to-door in the Pennsylvania State Rep district 120.  He has opened a campaign headquarters that is already funded through the election and has blanketed his district with hundreds of yard signs, more than 50,000 pieces of literature, and radio advertising. Like many of the campaigns on our list, Mullen is running a model campaign that his state LP can learn from and hopes to replicate statewide in the future. He is being attacked constantly by his Republican opponent (so we know Mullen is threatening an upset) and the Democrat seems to be out of the race, in this three-way match.  Mullen is in this to win.  He needs another $10,000 for additional radio spots and signage.  Please donate today.
 
Donations can be made through the website by credit card or paypal. 
Checks should be made payable to:  “Vote Mullen for State Rep.” and mailed to:  Vote Mullen, 193 Riverside Drive, Factoryville,  PA  18419.
 
Rex Bell                IN                                            http://electrexbell.com/
 
After carrying 8 precincts and winning 37% of the vote in 2008 in a two-way race, Rex Bell is running again for the Indiana House in district 54. He is a lifelong resident of the area and his wife is an elected Libertarian judge.  Bell is campaigning daily.  He has a targeted door-to-door effort aimed at reaching most of his district.  He has purchased radio spots to run from now through election day and ads in five local newspapers.  He needs $1,500 to expand his radio buy and more newspaper ads to cover his rural three county district.
 
Donations can be made through the website by credit card or paypal. 
Checks should be made payable to:  “Hoosiers for Rex Bell” and mailed to:  Rex Bell for Indiana House, 17059 State Road 38, Hagerston, IN  47346.

Lawrence Binsky    OH                                          www.lbinsky.com
 
Lawrence Binsky, Ohio House district 20, is a well known businessman, actively campaigning in the town where he grew up and still lives with his family.  He is covering his district door-to-door, has yard signs and is coordinating with the umbrella campaigns of Yarbrough state senate and Irvine for Congress.  There is a great benefit of supporting candidates whose districts coincide, which the major parties use to their great advantage for reaching voters and GOTV.  It’s time for Libertarians to do the same.  Please donate today.
 
Donations can be made through the website by credit card or paypal.
Checks should be made payable to:  “Binsky for Ohio” and mailed to:  Binsky for Ohio, 75 South Cassingham, Bexley, OH  43209  .
 
Christine Smith      CO                                          http://electchristinesmith.com/
 
Christine Smith, running in State House district 60, has been advertising throughout her six county district since January in newspapers and with 60 min. spots on radio since August.  She is campaigning door-to-door along with volunteers throughout her district. Her 3-way race against a Republican incumbent is quite winnable this year, with a 3rd Party candidate close to winning the Governorship and the Republican party potentially losing ballot status.  This means it’s anything goes and Christine Smith could benefit from that revolutionary environment.  Her campaign is hampered by a $200 donation limit that allows the major party candidates to receive $400.  Please send your best donation ASAP and help Christine win.
 
Donations can be made through the website by credit card. 
Personal checks should be made payable to:  “Elect Christine Smith” and mailed to: Elect Christine Smith, 478 Country Road 46, Howard, CO  81233.

Nicholas De Laat  WY                                           http://votenickdelaat.weebly.com/
 
Wyoming has the lowest population of all US states and this means small State Rep districts.  Nick De Laat is actively competing for the State House of Representatives in District 52 and is campaigning full time till election day. Either he or a campaign volunteer plans to visit every door in his district.  He has already raised several thousand dollars for literature, yard signs, and a full sized billboard.  This is a three way race with a Republican incumbent, an independent Republican with an inactive campaign, and our LP candidate De Laat. An additional infusion of $3,000 could allow the De Laat campaign to fund a district wide postcard mailing just prior to election day and radio advertising.  We need to make a major effort to pick up the votes that will be the margin of victory. This is a serious chance for an LP victory, one of the best nationwide, which is why I sent $1000 while recommending everyone to commit to $100 to help put Nick De Laat over the top.
 
Donations can be made through the website by credit card or paypal. 
Checks should be made payable to:  “Elect Nicholas De Laat” and mailed to:  Elect Nicholas De Laat, 5105 Tarry St., Gillette WY  82718.
 
Brendan Kelly       NH                                           http://www.brendankellylpnh.com/
 
Brendan Kelly has been elected and reelected as Selectman in the town of Seabrook, New Hampshire, which means he has proven himself electable.  He is running in a small state in district 14 that will elect 4 members to the New Hampshire State House of Representatives.  Kelly is campaigning seriously, to win.  This is his second try and has a serious shot.  He needs to raise $2,500 quickly.  I have recommended a $100 donation to win, and I have sent $250 toward Brendan’s victory.  Let’s give him the money he needs for literature, signs and local advertising.   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6OCLiB-PAM&feature=player_embedded
 
Donations can be made through the website by credit card or paypal. 
Checks should be made payable to: “Friends of Brendan Kelly” and mailed to:   Friends of Brendan Kelly, P.O. Box 631, Seabrook NH  03874
 
 
U.S. House of Representatives:         Goal:  Maximum Attention:
 
Travis Irvine           OH              http://irvineforcongress.com/contact.php
 
Travis Irvine is running an active, full-time campaign in the Ohio 12th Congressional District in a three-way race.  He has made outstanding videos throughout his campaign that are funny, witty, incisive, and present the Libertarian Party in a simple, clear, positive light.  Irvine can deliver a libertarian message with a humorous jab. He lampoons his Dem and Rep rivals mercilessly in his videos (links below). There is nothing better out there, and we absolutely must encourage this type of campaign. 
 
The Irvine for Congress campaign has the added attraction of being an umbrella campaign for numerous Ohio candidates in the Columbus area. Voters in Bill Yarbrough’s Ohio Senate district 3, along with LP Ohio House candidates Lawrence Binski, Michael Johnstion, Mark Noble, and Casey Borders will see this televised Libertarian message under an Irvine TV media umbrella.  In addition, voters in two other US House districts, LP candidates Buck Elsass and Bill Kammerer, and the Ohio LP statewide slate will also be viewing these Libertarian ads.
 
Please, I am urging everyone to make their maximum possible donation right here.  Yes, we want everyone to donate to all the candidates above, but then we must give these message mavens the chance to work their creative magic and run spots that will air for the two weeks up to the election. 
 
If we can raise just $15,000 more for these TV ads would energize every LP campaign in area  and $30,000 could yield a media payoff that would leverage our investment many times over … these are the kind of spots that can create a buzz nationwide that will amaze us all …
 
Travis ran for mayor of his hometown in Bexley, Ohio in 2007 and produced a short documentary about this experience called “American Mayor,” which was featured in the 2010 Short Film Corner at the Festival de Cannes and the Atlanta International Documentary Film Festival. A television commercial from that race was featured on the Jay Leno show in July 2010. 
 
The Irvine for Congress campaign represents a long-term investment for all of us.  We need to support this effort today, measure its effects, and expand such outreach in years to come.
 
Irvine for Congress: Vote Different

A Federal Budget Haircut

The Kiss of Debt

Fatcat Tiberi

Paula Brokes’ Carpet bagging

GOP: An Apology to America 

Donations to Irvine for Congress can be made through the website by credit card or paypal. 
Checks should be made payable to:  “Irvine for Congress” and mailed to:  Irvine for Congress, 729 College Ave, Columbus, OH  43209.
 
 
 
CANDIDATE   -   STATE   OFFICE    -     GOAL   -   MAX LEGAL DONATION -  RECOMMENDED DONATION -   MY DONATION

 
Eric Cooper             IA   Governor      Ballot Status- 2%      None              $1,000            $1,000
                                                                                  
John Babiarz          NH   Governor     Ballot Status-4%     $1,000             $1,000            $1,000
                                                                                 
 Warren Redlich       NY  Governor      Ballot Status-50,000 votes    $55,900         $1,000+          $1,000
 
Travis Irvine           OH    US House    Max Attention   $2,400        $1,000           $2,400
 
Bill Yarbrough        OH   State Senate       Win          $11,395            $  200           $  200
 
Robert Nowotny   TX     State Rep          Win            None               $ 100             $  250

Heather Scott         TN     State Rep          Win           $1,000             $  100            $  100
 
Tim Mullen              PA     State Rep          Win           None               $  100            $  100

Rex Bell                     IN      State Rep          Win           $2,300             $  100            $  100
 
Lawrence Binsky    OH     State Rep          Win         $11,395             $  100            $  100
 
Christine Smith       CO    State Rep          Win           $  200              $  100            $  100
 
Nicholas De Laat    WY    State Rep          Win          $1,000              $  100            $1,000
 
Brendan Kelly        NH     State Rep           Win          $1,000              $  100            $  250
 
 
There they are.  Thirteen impressive candidates. Thirteen campaigns in need of funds – mine and yours – funds to help them meet their goals for building the LP and for victory. 
 
These thirteen need your help.  I had planned to give $5,000 to campaign 2010.  I have pushed myself significantly beyond that level.  But, it’s not enough.  It’s urgent that each of you join me in giving whatever you can – any amount – to some, or just one, or all.  But please send your best donations today.
 
There are three statewide campaigns that need your support – where they can win ballot status.  Not states that are easy that we always win, nor those that seem impossible, but those where it is possible – difficult, but doable, with some help and a push – and a donation from me and you.
 
There are eight winnable races for state offices – State Representatives and State Senate.  No, there’s no guarantee that we’ll win, but we can help fund candidates who are in the race, who are serious, who are the best candidate in the race and who could win. 
 
And, something special.  The wild card race.  Travis Irvine. I have watched his videos.  They are amazing, funny, clever, witty … they carry a message and a punch.  We absolutely must  these make sure that these ads are widely broadcast on major network TV in his district.
 
Of course, the money that I had planned to donate is running out and it’s getting spread a bit thin – sad to say.  Sure, I could have just kept my money, complaining and doing nothing.  But, I have to try.  Maybe none of these candidates will win and no one will win ballot status this time.  Maybe some will succeed. But, I know that the worst regrets in life come from the things not attempted, the battles not fought, the roads not traveled …
 
… and I know that if we keep running high quality campaigns, and help them with the money to be competitive, eventually we will start winning.  We must fund our best candidates.  This year and every year.
 
So, I’m giving.  All that I can.  More than I can afford.  Because I have to.  Because we can never win if we never try.  There is nothing in this for me – no campaign, no LP office, no commissions, and I have not included any of my LP friends who are running for office on this list (sorry guys).  In fact, I’m asking them to give to these other campaigns too!
 
What is in this for me, and for you, is a chance.  A chance to build the LP, begin to build the party, to raise more money than ever before.  A chance to begin to push back against the tyrant that is our government today.
 
Now, I want you to seriously think about this.  Because I think we have something amazing going on …  Something we need to fund …  We have high quality candidates and campaigns who just need ammunition to fight back, for all of us … and all we have to do is donate.
 
We have large groups of individuals all across America looking for a new political home, we have incredible candidates campaigning hard, reaching out to these new prospects, building our party, spreading the seeds of liberty, badly in need of funds, we have the Libertarian National Congressional Committee donating significantly for the first time, and
 
 … we have our dedicated LP members, donors and friends – you – the most important piece in this effort …  
 
Please join us in donating for liberty.
 
Please do it now.  Today.  There is no time left.
 
Every candidate above has a website where you can click and donate.
 
Please scroll back up, click, and join us in donating for Liberty.
 
Nick Youngers
Libertarian Donors Club

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Filed Under: Libertarian Party

63 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Doug Craig // Oct 12, 2010 at 10:17 pm

    Odd none of the Georgia candidates made either list. This one or the LNCC. i wonder why. Georgia will end up with the most vote for their top 5 candidates compared to any other state top 5.

  • 2 Doug Craig // Oct 12, 2010 at 10:20 pm

    BTW Chuck Donavan was one of the first we a tv ad out and we are recording a radio ad tomorrow to run the rest of the month so if you want to donate all the money will go to buying radio spot in Macon , Savannah and Albany Georgia.
    http://www.donovanforsenate.com
    also follow us on twitter @crazyforliberty

  • 3 Be Rational // Oct 12, 2010 at 11:18 pm

    Doug Craig,

    What does it take for the Georgia candidates to get ballot status this year? Is there a reasonable chance?

  • 4 Daniel Surman // Oct 12, 2010 at 11:57 pm

    I believe the Georgia LP already has ballot access for statewide candidates, but for US House races they need 20% in the Governor’s race.

  • 5 AroundtheblockAFT // Oct 13, 2010 at 8:07 am

    Some of what is trying to be achieved would make a whole lot more sense if the LP Presidential convention was held in Fall 2011 so we know who are nominee is and that person could campaign in NH, etc. as the nominee and not one of a half dozen (or more) hopefuls.

  • 6 George Phillies // Oct 13, 2010 at 8:16 am

    @5

    The is indeed an excellent idea, though a convention in the Summer of 2011 so that delegates could integrate the trips with family vacations might be positive.

    At the other extreme, a mid-Summer convention would give the victorious side no opportunity to get a campaign up and running.

  • 7 Be Rational // Oct 13, 2010 at 8:38 am

    What makes New Hampshire and Iowa important is the primary in NH and caucuses in IA, so choosing the nominee in 2011 would obviate the media benefit. Who cares if a candidate that has already been chosen is visiting there during primary season?

    With ballot status, the LP would have a presidential primary in NH and caucuses in IA at the same time as the duopoly parties, so the LP should be able to garner some interest and attention, if we don’t squander the opportunity.

    It seems like a good idea that would generate media interest to have the LP candidates who are vying for the LP Presidential nomination to go to these states and campaign for the LP primary and the LP caucuses.

    Isn’t the 2012 LP Presidential Nominating convention already set up as to the place and dates? When and where will it be? Isn’t it on Memorial Day weekend again?

  • 8 George Phillies // Oct 13, 2010 at 9:54 am

    @7

    Isn’t the 2012….?

    NOT YET.

    There is an effort to drop it into Las Vegas, home town of one of the obvious candidates.

  • 9 Robert Capozzi // Oct 13, 2010 at 11:45 am

    I thought Root has said he won’t run in 2012…has that changed? Misrecalling? Expecting a reversal?

    I’ve not heard much on Wrights’s exploration. He — and at one point — The Keaton are the only other horses I’ve heard of. Maybe the convention needs to stay clear of Cali., Texas and LV.

    I just hope the cruise ship idea’s off the table…

  • 10 LP Pragmatist // Oct 13, 2010 at 1:24 pm

    Root said he would not run for President, if he was elected Chairman of the Libertarian Party.

  • 11 AroundtheblockAFT // Oct 13, 2010 at 2:20 pm

    #7 either way the LP candidate/running to be candidates will get totally lost in the noise.
    We need a candidate picked early (that is, in 2011) so that candidate can solidify his or her campaign vlunteers, raise money to be spent in the election, and get one name out there as the LP candidate as the media/voter attention turns to presidential politics (instead of no one knowing whom the LP candidate is).

  • 12 Robert Capozzi // Oct 13, 2010 at 3:24 pm

    prag, I seem to recall Root saying he didn’t want to run again until 2016, as the LP still needed to build its base and momentum, or somesuch.

    around, I’d say the single biggest reason to have the convention earlier is for ballot access reasons. My take was one of the biggest challenges for the Barr campaign was they got stuck in the mud on access, wasting the precious early summer in time and resources that could have been spent on fundraising and media.

    Despite the weather, I still believe President’s Day makes more sense, esp. if it’s held in a less-snow-prone destination. DC’d probably do fine, but New Orleans, Atlanta, Houston, Phoenix all strike me as good choices.

    George seemed to think that the Barristas were pissing away too much on local transportation, which may have been a tiny contributing factor but seems unlikely to’ve been in the top 10 (even 50!) reasons for suboptimal operational performance, if at all.

    Assuming BHO stands for re-election, 2012 might be a great year for a more left-sounding standard-bearer. Of course, a lot can happen between here and there, but I assume the Rs will be a lot more careful this time to get a candidate who solidifies their base (unlike McCain), and liberty-leaners who typically vote R but might vote L under some conditions WON’T be inclined to in 2012, all in the name of ousting BHO.

    A sitting president is VERY hard to knock off the ticket as Teddy tried to do in 1980 to Carter. So, even if BHO is wildly unpopular, smart money’d be on him being on the ticket, unless he begs off, e.g., LBJ ’68.

    Disenchanted liberals and liberal-leaning independents who maybe don’t hate capitalism might be reachable by the Ls.

    Problem is, most of our heavier potential candidates have a right-lean, IMO. Tim Penny remains an interesting idea. Maybe John Stossel, who is now a right-leaner in my estimation, but does have some left-leaning street cred potential.

  • 13 Be Rational // Oct 13, 2010 at 3:36 pm

    In 2012 the LP should consider running two of our own. We may have some great gubernatorial candidates to choose from: Monds in GA, Hess in AZ, Redlich in NY, Glass in TX plus others that could form a solid ticket.

    Since it’s possible that the three states listed above could get ballot status, plus the less likely prospect of gaining ballot status in either of Illionois or Maryland this year, it may be a lot better starting out in the summer of 2012 than it was in 2008.

  • 14 Robert Capozzi // Oct 14, 2010 at 5:16 am

    br, I’d think Wrights would qualify as “our own.”

    If we want to lay low, that’s one way to go.

  • 15 Be Rational // Oct 14, 2010 at 6:17 am

    The best vote total the LP ever got was when we ran a high vote earning Gubernatorial candidate of our own.

    That was Ed Clark in 1980 after a very successful run for governor in CA in 1978.

    We will need to vastly increase our fundraising ablities, however to replace David Koch’s millions. But, that is the point of this thread, isn’t it?

  • 16 Robert Capozzi // Oct 14, 2010 at 7:38 am

    the only way I see to replace such a massive infusion of cash is to increase the base.

    It’s likely that a Penny or a Stossel with a deep-pocketed Veep bankrolling the operation would break-through far more than even Clark or Barr did. It’s possible to imagine a Perot-type performance, in the right circumstances.

    Clark’s 78 performance had almost nothing to do with his 80 performance, other than it groomed him. Getting 5% in the 78 race lent a tiny amount of credibility.

    IMO, Penny or Stossel have boatloads more credibility today than Clark in 79. David’s money and Crane’s handling bought the credibility.

  • 17 AroundtheblockAFT // Oct 14, 2010 at 8:02 am

    Agree with #16. One has to remember that Clark’s $2 million is equivalent to about $10 million today. Also, the Clark campaign was able to buy 30 minute network slots at very inexpensive rates – rates that aren’t available today. I’d guess an equivalent of the Clark campaign would be $25 million today and, if the movement had that kind of money, should it be spent on a political campaign???

  • 18 Be Rational // Oct 14, 2010 at 8:21 am

    The Clark campaign bought 5 minute spots that were available at a very cheap rate due to a fluke that the Crane machine took advantage of. A large portion of the Koch funding was used for ballot access for states that are already on the ballot for the LP these days. It’s possible to be even better after November.

    There are very few big names with money ready to jump in to rescue the LP. It’s been everyone’s dream for a long time.

    Dreamers have to wake up eventually and get to work and make their own dreams come true if they are ever to succeed. Those who wait for someone else to make their dreams come true eventually become Democrats waiting for the government to save them.

    The LP can win. We have to get to work and make it happen.

  • 19 Kevin Knedler // Oct 14, 2010 at 10:13 am

    # 18. So true on the “wake up” comment. Build a solid organization with real-world answers in a pragmatic fashion, is the model in Ohio LP.

    No time for debate-club antics any longer– the philosphy books are collecting dust down at the government-run library.

  • 20 paulie // Oct 14, 2010 at 7:07 pm

    What makes New Hampshire and Iowa important is the primary in NH and caucuses in IA, so choosing the nominee in 2011 would obviate the media benefit. Who cares if a candidate that has already been chosen is visiting there during primary season?

    The interest the D/R-oid primaries and caucuses receive is because they select those with a real chance of winning the presidency. Libertarians on the ground will receive some modicum of press attention as an alternative news story, IE: the news corps is hanging around IA and NH being rather bored and it helps spice things up, but they won’t get a lot. This is equally true whether there is one LP candidate or half a dozen there, so having one rather than half a dozen may improve the chances that said person will get enough attention out of it to measurably increase name recognition, support of various kinds, and future coverage.

  • 21 paulie // Oct 14, 2010 at 7:21 pm

    I thought Root has said he won’t run in 2012…has that changed? Misrecalling? Expecting a reversal?

    I don’t think that applies any more since he is not LNC chair.

    I’ve not heard much on Wrights’s exploration. He — and at one point — The Keaton are the only other horses I’ve heard of.

    I would be surprised if Angela Keaton is not backing Lee Wrights.

    The ones I know of are Milnes, Joy Waymire, likely Wrights, likely Root, possibly Jingozian. I don’t think Milnes or Waymire will get much in the way of support unless something very unexpected happens.

    Knapp withdrew.

    Mini-movement underway to draft John Jay Myers.

    That’s all I know of, although it’s way early.

  • 22 paulie // Oct 14, 2010 at 7:23 pm

    Maybe the convention needs to stay clear of Cali., Texas and LV.

    Funny thing is, those are the contenders, last I heard.

  • 23 paulie // Oct 14, 2010 at 7:23 pm

    We need a candidate picked early (that is, in 2011) so that candidate can solidify his or her campaign vlunteers, raise money to be spent in the election, and get one name out there as the LP candidate as the media/voter attention turns to presidential politics (instead of no one knowing whom the LP candidate is).

    Agreed.

  • 24 paulie // Oct 14, 2010 at 7:29 pm

    Despite the weather, I still believe President’s Day makes more sense, esp. if it’s held in a less-snow-prone destination. DC’d probably do fine,

    DC in February seems contra-indicated.

    Assuming BHO stands for re-election, 2012 might be a great year for a more left-sounding standard-bearer. Of course, a lot can happen between here and there, but I assume the Rs will be a lot more careful this time to get a candidate who solidifies their base (unlike McCain), and liberty-leaners who typically vote R but might vote L under some conditions WON’T be inclined to in 2012, all in the name of ousting BHO.

    A sitting president is VERY hard to knock off the ticket as Teddy tried to do in 1980 to Carter. So, even if BHO is wildly unpopular, smart money’d be on him being on the ticket, unless he begs off, e.g., LBJ ’68.

    Disenchanted liberals and liberal-leaning independents who maybe don’t hate capitalism might be reachable by the Ls.

    Problem is, most of our heavier potential candidates have a right-lean, IMO.

    Good analysis, I agree.

    Kubby or Ruwart would do well with that, but are close associates of Wrights, so will be backing him. He may be able to appeal to the left with their advice and support.

  • 25 paulie // Oct 14, 2010 at 7:33 pm

    I’d think Wrights would qualify as “our own.”

    If we want to lay low, that’s one way to go.

    I see no reason to expect any deviation from the 0.4% +/- 0.1% of every LP presidential candidate since 1984 for a hypothetical Wrights ticket, unless he does better due to some unexpected factor. The amount of media attention would likely be a factor of campaign staff effort.

  • 26 paulie // Oct 14, 2010 at 7:41 pm

    BTW, I think Myers could do well with selling libertarianism to the left as well, and IMO would be more of a unity candidate internally, if he is interested in running – which I haven’t heard one way or the other on.

  • 27 Robert Milnes // Oct 14, 2010 at 8:09 pm

    Nominate me. I’ll straighten out the LP.

  • 28 Robert Milnes // Oct 14, 2010 at 8:16 pm

    I’d suggest somwhere near I-70 corridor in the fall next year. For geographic & weather reasons. Also fits in with Tom K. et al reasoning of timing.
    e.g. D.C.. St. Louis, K.C., Denver, SLC, Reno, Sacramento.

  • 29 paulie // Oct 14, 2010 at 8:17 pm

    Monds in GA, Hess in AZ, Redlich in NY, Glass in TX plus others that could form a solid ticket.

    Since it’s possible that the three states listed above could get ballot status, plus the less likely prospect of gaining ballot status in either of Illionois or Maryland this year, it may be a lot better starting out in the summer of 2012 than it was in 2008.

    GA, AZ, TX all had presidential ballot access going into the ’08 cycle, and we (including myself) petitioned Maryland on in fall 2006 for ’08.

    Illinois and New York had to be done in 2008, just as in 2004 and 2000. I worked Illinois all three of those times, but not NY – I only worked there in 2006 as far as the LP goes.

    Texas only had to be done in 2004 (I worked the El Paso area), first time since the 80s. GA and AZ have likewise had presidential acess for quite some time. AFAIK, NY and IL never had presidential access going in to the election year.

  • 30 paulie // Oct 14, 2010 at 8:22 pm

    SLC, Reno, Sacramento.

    Are not near I-70, they are on I-80.

  • 31 paulie // Oct 14, 2010 at 8:24 pm

    Neither is DC, although it is at least close – Baltimore is the terminus of 70.

  • 32 Be Rational // Oct 14, 2010 at 8:33 pm

    Paulie, the three states listed where we could add ballot status this year were listed above in the Libertarian Donors Club story:

    Iowa
    New Hampshire
    New York

    There is little chance of coverage of an already nominated LP candidate in the early primary and caucus states. The point of the primaries and caucuses is to choose a nominee.

    There is a great chance of coverage of an LP campaign for the nomination in 2012. The results this year will be pointing to even more turmoil in 2012. Some candidates could be seeking the LP nomination at the same time as one of the big two duops.

    The earlier nomination plan was tried before and didn’t help. It’s time to break out of the old thinking box.

  • 33 paulie // Oct 14, 2010 at 8:45 pm

    Iowa
    New Hampshire
    New York

    Also Illinois, Maryland could get ’12 access depending on how they do this year as well.

    Others already have presidential access, but could conceivably add non-presidential, e.g. Georgia.

    There is little chance of coverage of an already nominated LP candidate in the early primary and caucus states.

    Depends on what they do there. I think Marrou and/or Browne made some news with Dixville-Notch. Other campaigns could be more creative.

    The point of the primaries and caucuses is to choose a nominee.

    Yes – but that does not mean the LP would receive significant coverage if we simply held a NH primary and/or Iowa caucus for President at the same time as the D/R-oids. In the minds of reporters, it’s about the horserace; we are not seen as having a chance in November, so who cares about our qualifying rounds?

    I do think that if L candidates are on the ground in IA and NH at the same time as the D/R-oids, we get some stories out of it…but not because we are or are not also holding primaries/caucuses.

  • 34 paulie // Oct 14, 2010 at 8:51 pm

    The best vote total the LP ever got was when we ran a high vote earning Gubernatorial candidate of our own.

    That was Ed Clark in 1980 after a very successful run for governor in CA in 1978.

    We will need to vastly increase our fundraising ablities, however to replace David Koch’s millions. But, that is the point of this thread, isn’t it?

    Makes sense to me.

  • 35 paulie // Oct 14, 2010 at 8:52 pm

    There are very few big names with money ready to jump in to rescue the LP. It’s been everyone’s dream for a long time.

    Dreamers have to wake up eventually and get to work and make their own dreams come true if they are ever to succeed.

    Agreed.

  • 36 Robert Milnes // Oct 14, 2010 at 11:10 pm

    paulie, you got me. technically Reno, SLC & Sac. are on I-80.
    However, I think you’ll find I-70 ends somewhere in Colo/Utah area. & I-80 makes a dramatic southward dip in Nevada so Reno & Sac would be close to where I-70 would go if it went all the way across.
    & SLC is the only city of any size in that vast area between Denver & Reno.

  • 37 Be Rational // Oct 14, 2010 at 11:31 pm

    @33

    The LP candidates for the 2012 Presidential nomination could and should be focusing outward – running TV and/or radio spots in these two early states . That outward focus is what will get us coverage. There are some very creative ways to do this and it can get us nationwide coverage for the cost of a statewide effort. Such an effort needs to be a surprise, so it can’t be debated and picked apart on-line in advance.

    It is very rare for an LP candidate or state party to do any of the outward focused activities that actually lead to victory. When we do those things we do get media coverage. LP campaigns, especially for Presidential nominations, tend to be focused on ourselves. The media is smart enough to know we can’t win if that’s all we do, and LP members seem to expect to get coverage without earning coverage.

    This all depends on the big “if” we get ballot status in Iowa and New Hampshire.

    Marrou’s coup in Dixville Notch, which was essentially the result of the efforts of one NH LP member at the time, is a micro example of the kind of creative thing we could do.

  • 38 Thomas L. Knapp // Oct 15, 2010 at 12:32 am

    “The earlier nomination plan was tried before and didn’t help.”

    Of the five top LP presidential vote-getters, two were nominated early (Ed Clark and Ron Paul), two were the same guy who ran for a year or more in advance as if he’d already been nominated (Harry Browne), and one was a guy with better name recognition among the public than most LP nominees (Bob Barr).

    It would likely benefit the LP to get all three of those characteristics in one package.

    It might also be interesting if the LP’s early nominee ran in the Democratic and Republican caucuses in Iowa (and the Republican Ames straw poll before that) and primaries in New Hampshire.

    A well-organized Iowa caucus effort might even get that candidate some delegates at the “major party” national conventions (they aren’t “winner take all” — any candidate who meets a minimum support threshold gets a delegate share).

  • 39 paulie // Oct 15, 2010 at 1:30 am

    Of the five top LP presidential vote-getters, two were nominated early (Ed Clark and Ron Paul), two were the same guy who ran for a year or more in advance as if he’d already been nominated (Harry Browne), and one was a guy with better name recognition among the public than most LP nominees (Bob Barr).

    It would likely benefit the LP to get all three of those characteristics in one package.

    So Barr should start running again right now…?

  • 40 paulie // Oct 15, 2010 at 2:18 am

    The LP candidates for the 2012 Presidential nomination could and should be focusing outward – running TV and/or radio spots in these two early states . That outward focus is what will get us coverage.

    I agree. And a nominated candidate can do so just as a pre-nomination slew of candidates can, but the payoff – building name recognition and support, getting to know reporters on a first name basis – can be greater if it is focused on one such candidate.

    There are some very creative ways to do this and it can get us nationwide coverage for the cost of a statewide effort. Such an effort needs to be a surprise, so it can’t be debated and picked apart on-line in advance.

    I have no intention of picking apart any secret details. I don’t think we’re even close to that territory with this discussion, and if we are – it won’t be much of a surprise.

    [Actually, though, I think the cloak and dagger stuff is overrated. One of these days I would like to try a completely "open source" campaign - all the internal discussions taking place completely in full public view - as an experiment and see if I'm right. But don't worry, I'm not after your secret strategies, much less picking them apart here.]


    It is very rare for an LP candidate or state party to do any of the outward focused activities that actually lead to victory. When we do those things we do get media coverage. LP campaigns, especially for Presidential nominations, tend to be focused on ourselves.

    All true.


    The media is smart enough to know we can’t win if that’s all we do, and LP members seem to expect to get coverage without earning coverage.

    All true as well, but media pros are also smart enough to know we are, shall we say, highly unlikely to go from 0.4% to plurality in one cycle no matter what we do, and we won’t get equal treatment prior to achieving competitive polling numbers and significant lower level victories (multiple seats in Congress, Governorships).

    This all depends on the big “if” we get ballot status in Iowa and New Hampshire.

    Marrou’s coup in Dixville Notch, which was essentially the result of the efforts of one NH LP member at the time, is a micro example of the kind of creative thing we could do.

    Yes, and, it proves that it can be done on behalf of a nominated candidate.

  • 41 George Phillies // Oct 15, 2010 at 5:03 am

    Meanwhile, the motion now most centrally before the LNC would put the convention in May 2012 in Texas.

  • 42 Thomas L. Knapp // Oct 15, 2010 at 5:34 am

    Texas (especially Dallas, as the airport is a major hub) would be a smart convention pick, and the southwest is overdue for an LP national convention (the last eight have been DC, DC, Anaheim, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Portland, Denver and St. Louis).

  • 43 Robert Capozzi // Oct 15, 2010 at 5:49 am

    pc24, bless them, but I don’t see Kubby, Ruwart, or Wrights as “heavy” candidates. They are LP insiders, by my estimation. Kubby may be an elected local official, so that’s something, but that’s Marrou vs. Badnarik.

    All else equal, I’d prefer a louder megaphone.

  • 44 Be Rational // Oct 15, 2010 at 5:55 am

    “Marrou’s coup in Dixville Notch, which was essentially the result of the efforts of one NH LP member at the time, is a micro example of the kind of creative thing we could do.”

    ***

    “Yes, and, it proves that it can be done on behalf of a nominated candidate.”

    ****

    No, you missed the point. Marrou was the nominated candidate running in the general election against the other nominated candidates.

    This would NOT have worked had it been otherwise. Candidates who have already been nominated do not deserve any coverage when there is a real nomination campaign going on.

    If the LP nominates early it shouts out: “Look at us, we’re too small and hopeless to really run, so we have to start early and still we can’t do anything, but please cover us anyway because we’re desperate.”

  • 45 Robert Capozzi // Oct 15, 2010 at 6:29 am

    br: If the LP nominates early it shouts out: “Look at us, we’re too small and hopeless to really run, so we have to start early and still we can’t do anything, but please cover us anyway because we’re desperate.”

    me: Yes, that’s a weak narrative. I wonder what a better one is. How’s about: don’t waste your vote yet again, vote your conscience this time.

    It’d be a spin on Goldwater’s “in your heart, you know he’s right.”

    Or maybe: there has GOT to be a better way. Vote L.

    Or the abolitionist mantra: Taxation is theft. Anarchy now! ;-)

  • 46 Be Rational // Oct 15, 2010 at 6:49 am

    Paulie,

    Out of all the LP Presidential candidates, Ed Clark’s % of the vote was far higher than any of the others. The difference was the nationwide TV spots they ran – about 19 of them, I think.

    The rest of the LP Pres candidates were in the same ballpark. Early nomination didn’t help with money or media, only for doing ballot drives. We don’t need to do that anymore as long as we keep competent people in charge of the petitioning and filing.

  • 47 Robert Capozzi // Oct 15, 2010 at 7:20 am

    br, Ed Clark’s — and all L candidates’s –vote total was a rounding error. Tiny. Inconsequential. Extrapolating from such a number leads to wild errors.

    Knowing who is relatively competent or incompetent is difficult to say and depends on the assessor just as much as the assessee. Why not bake in more time as a prudent cushion?

    Or, just give up on really tough states. Is 48 really that much better than 45, for ex.?

  • 48 AroundtheblockAFT // Oct 15, 2010 at 8:12 am

    As I see it, the value of the presidential candidate is not in the +-.5% of the vote he or she can pull. It is in local party building and helping get media attention for local candidates who can do better than .5%.

    We don’t need a repeat of ’08 where Barr came out of the Denver scrum with many state parties who hadn’t supported him and/or didn’t know him. It was summer and the focus was not on
    building a Fall campaign. We need the nominee known by Xmas, so he or she can go around to all the 2012 state conventions as the nominee,
    get to know the players, build support and a campaign team, appear with local candidates, raise money and be well prepared for the Fall campaign.

    I hope Mr. Hinkle and the LNC monitor this site so they are aware of the many reasons for an early convention and the many LPers here who support an early convention.

  • 49 Robert Capozzi // Oct 15, 2010 at 9:18 am

    One of the weakest arguments for a May convention is that says we’re likely to attract stronger candidates with a May convention, since their time commitment is minimized. That’s certainly a considerate view, but one need not devote full time to the campaign were the nominating convention in February, or even September. Staff could be hired to handle most of the behind-the-scenes work full time, including fundraising.

  • 50 Be Rational // Oct 15, 2010 at 11:06 am

    When rounding, Ed Clark’s vote total is the only one that rounds to 1.0 %. The secret was the TV advertising.

    A smarter advertising campaign could do better.

    None of the others, no matter when the nomination took place – early or late – were able to match it, because they didn’t advertise.

    As to competent ballot drive management, that’s easy. It only takes a little supervision to tell if the manager of a ballot drive can do the job or not. Many people know how to manage ballot drives and many people know how to manage managers. It is not that difficult. But, it is true that it depends on the assessor and the assessee – which means that there are those qualified for neither who need to let those that are qualified do the job. We can know from the first day whether a ballot drive will succeed. If you don’t know, then you are not qualified to run it.

    There is a chance the LP will be in the best shape ever as far as ballot status following 2010, so going for 50 states is quite reasonable and a good investment in our attempt to use the early primaries and caucuses as well to obtain the “earned” media that all campaigns crave. Wayne Root has been doing good work in this area too, knocking down barriers and opening doors.

    The LP needs to hit the ground running by January 2011 in getting ready. The planning should already be underway.

    Holding the nomination early would derail our best opportunities for media attention and party building. There is little chance to get coverage of a nomination held too early. There is no chance of getting coverage of an already nominated candidate who has no election coming up in the early decision states.

    If we manage to get ballot status in those early decision states, we can get a lot of coverage there. It takes creativity, organization and planning.

    There are those on here who believe that it can’t be done and the only thing that is certain is that those people who believe something can’t be done can’t do that thing, even though others can.

    The LP needs to get that early coverage of its multiple candidates seeking its nomination. The candidates seeking the nomination can cover all 50 states and get more attention. We can do exactly that, if we come together now on a plan. That includes the essential delay of our nominating convention till as late as possible.

    This plan does not depend on any desire to recruit any famous name to carry the banner. In fact, the LP will probably do better nominating one of our own, and we will certainly do better if we quit dreaming or hoping for that famous person to lead us. We are the leaders and we should lead the rest.

  • 51 Be Rational // Oct 15, 2010 at 11:15 am

    As for where the convention should be, Texas, Nevada or Ohio would be good.

    As for Wayne Root, I think he can do the most for the LP for the next 6 years as a spokesman, fundraiser and party builder. As I see it, this may be the best for his career and life plans as well. Six years would give him time to make a lot of friends in the LP, help a lot of people, build a stronger party, and by then, the gradual evolution of things may find his own positions and those of the party are more in line and his critics will be satisfied.

  • 52 paulie // Oct 15, 2010 at 3:13 pm

    Meanwhile, the motion now most centrally before the LNC would put the convention in May 2012 in Texas.

    Good idea. The place in Austin where they had the LNC/LSLA was good. Fairly central to the US population for people who travel by car, not too far from a couple of airline hub cities, and right across the street from the greyhound station for dog bus riders like me. The hotel was not overly expensive compared with most of the same class of hotels, and there was a cheaper place right next door. IIRC, wifi worked in the meeting rooms. Food in walking distance. They should seriously consider it if there is a big enough meeting room.

  • 53 paulie // Oct 15, 2010 at 3:18 pm

    Texas (especially Dallas, as the airport is a major hub) would be a smart convention pick,

    Dallas would work too. I’m not sure if I would classify it as Southeast, Southwest or what, but it’s central in a lot of ways.

    southwest is overdue for an LP national convention (the last eight have been DC, DC, Anaheim, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Portland, Denver and St. Louis).

    The northeast is probably more overdue than the southwest, as DC was before Anaheim, but from what I heard, the plans there fell through.
    Baltimore in 2014?

  • 54 paulie // Oct 15, 2010 at 3:22 pm

    pc24, bless them, but I don’t see Kubby, Ruwart, or Wrights as “heavy” candidates. They are LP insiders, by my estimation. Kubby may be an elected local official, so that’s something, but that’s Marrou vs. Badnarik.

    All else equal, I’d prefer a louder megaphone.

    I don’t think the available evidence is that a “louder microphone” is either likely, or actually necessarily louder.

    The best thing a presidential candidate can do is help build local candidates, local affiliates and the party’s list and long term infrastructure. LP insiders are far more likely to understand that and make it happen than outsiders.

  • 55 AroundtheblockAFT // Oct 15, 2010 at 3:22 pm

    Be Rational might want to Be Realistic.
    In any case, why not ask the presidential candidates (and those who sought the nomination, too) if they think the LP campaign would have achieved more had they had the nomination three, six or nine months earlier?

  • 56 paulie // Oct 15, 2010 at 3:25 pm

    No, you missed the point. Marrou was the nominated candidate running in the general election against the other nominated candidates.

    Hmmmm, not as I recall it. My understanding is that Dixville Notch is the first town to vote in the first primary (NH), which is why it got attention. Marrou crashed the party and got primary votes in DN. If I am remembering this wrong, please explain why DN would matter in a general election with nominated D/R-oid candidates.

  • 57 paulie // Oct 15, 2010 at 3:53 pm

    Out of all the LP Presidential candidates, Ed Clark’s % of the vote was far higher than any of the others. The difference was the nationwide TV spots they ran – about 19 of them, I think.

    Well, he did have a billionaire running mate, and TV was a lot cheaper back then, with the D/R-oids spending a small fraction of what they spend today. There were a lot less channels on TV, no Tivos for skipping commercials, and no internet for any practical discussion, so TV commercials were a lot more likely to be viewed.

    But there were other differences: the Rothbard and Reason/Cato wings of the movement had not yet abandoned the LP.

    The party was relatively new, brimming with youthful energy and enthusiasm, and without the history of decline and stagnation that’s come since – all there had been at that point was growth.

    Clark spoke at hundreds of colleges…something that someone should try doing again. That doesn’t necessarily cost as much as a large scale TV campaign, although these days we may have more luck with viral youtube clips.

    He sold himself as a “low tax liberal.” As far as I know, no presidential campaign since then has emphasized our liberal side.

    Another thing to consider is that political cycles are relatively longer now: the D/R-oids start campaigning on average months before they did 30 years ago, and there are far more niche media paying attention to them early on.

    The rest of the LP Pres candidates were in the same ballpark. Early nomination didn’t help with money or media, only for doing ballot drives. We don’t need to do that anymore as long as we keep competent people in charge of the petitioning and filing.

    That’s a big “as long.” As far as I can tell, the party did not learn a lesson from 2008; those of us who were shut out in ’08 were shut out again this year, and those who were managing things in ’08 have continued to get contracts since then. Keeping competent people in management is no small task.

    I think early nominations can help with money and media. Whether past LP campaigns took advantage of that or not is a separate question. All aspects of a campaign work in tandem and are built incrementally over time. More time creates more opportunity to build, more time to create proven working processes within the campaign, and less chance of a crash and burn without time to recover.

  • 58 paulie // Oct 15, 2010 at 3:56 pm

    As I see it, the value of the presidential candidate is not in the +-.5% of the vote he or she can pull. It is in local party building and helping get media attention for local candidates who can do better than .5%.

    We don’t need a repeat of ’08 where Barr came out of the Denver scrum with many state parties who hadn’t supported him and/or didn’t know him. It was summer and the focus was not on
    building a Fall campaign. We need the nominee known by Xmas, so he or she can go around to all the 2012 state conventions as the nominee,
    get to know the players, build support and a campaign team, appear with local candidates, raise money and be well prepared for the Fall campaign.

    I hope Mr. Hinkle and the LNC monitor this site so they are aware of the many reasons for an early convention and the many LPers here who support an early convention.

    My point exactly.

  • 59 paulie // Oct 15, 2010 at 3:57 pm

    One of the weakest arguments for a May convention is that says we’re likely to attract stronger candidates with a May convention, since their time commitment is minimized. That’s certainly a considerate view, but one need not devote full time to the campaign were the nominating convention in February, or even September. Staff could be hired to handle most of the behind-the-scenes work full time, including fundraising.

    Correct as well.

  • 60 paulie // Oct 15, 2010 at 4:18 pm

    going for 50 states is quite reasonable and a good investment in our attempt to use the early primaries and caucuses as well to obtain the “earned” media that all campaigns crave.

    Good idea. Something like Project 51 needs to be done again.

    The LP needs to hit the ground running by January 2011 in getting ready. The planning should already be underway.

    Bill Redpath is supposedly working on something. I should give him a call, although I don’t think he takes my opinions very seriously. At least, I get that sense. I’m willing to work with people if they want my help.

    Holding the nomination early would derail our best opportunities for media attention and party building. There is little chance to get coverage of a nomination held too early.

    We haven’t gotten any more media attention for the convention since it was moved up to the election year in ’96. By this point, I’d say that’s a failed experiment. Even having the convention in Atlanta didn’t get us CNN.

    There is no chance of getting coverage of an already nominated candidate who has no election coming up in the early decision states.

    That, I don’t agree with. He or she can work his or her way into media attention in all sorts of ways. I’ll agree that it takes creativity, organization and planning, but not that it depends on the LP having primaries/caucuses.

    There are those on here who believe that it can’t be done and the only thing that is certain is that those people who believe something can’t be done can’t do that thing, even though others can.

    That’s something else you and I agree on.

    This plan does not depend on any desire to recruit any famous name to carry the banner. In fact, the LP will probably do better nominating one of our own, and we will certainly do better if we quit dreaming or hoping for that famous person to lead us. We are the leaders and we should lead the rest.

    Another area where we agree.

    I’ve already explained why I disagree about the late nomination issue, so I don’t think repeating myself again will be helpful at this point.

  • 61 Be Rational // Oct 15, 2010 at 5:50 pm

    Paulie you remebered the Primary vote correctly. The LP had a primary even though Marrou was already nominated:

    Dixville Notch: 1992

    1992
    Democratic Primary: (4 voters)
    William J. Clinton – 3
    Paul E. Tsongas – 1

    Libertarian Primary: (10 voters)
    Andre Marrou – 10

    Republican Primary: (14 voters)
    George H. W. Bush – 9
    Patrick J. Buchanan – 3
    Paul E. Tsongas – 1, write-in
    Andre Marrou – 1, write-in

    General Election: (27 voters)
    George H. W. Bush – 15
    H. Ross Perot – 8
    Andre Marrou – 5
    William J. Clinton – 2

    So, it was in the Libertarian Primary that Marrou got his first and biggest earned media coverage nationwide by beating everyone in the field. It was the surprise factor coupled with the fact that the LP had a primary that overcame the lack of interest in an already nominated candidate.

    This requres a Libertarian Primary to get that kind of attention. It is unlikely to get much coverage without a competitve primary, but the surprise of getting the most votes got him a lot of attention.

    He got a bit more in the general election from Dixville Notch.

    So, this shows the point that Libertarian Primaries and Caucuses can get attention.

    It also shows that under the right circumstances an early nominee can get some coverage in the early decision states.

    Most importantly, it shows the kind of coverage that can come from a “surprise” of some kind that the media didn’t expect from the LP.

    My point is to use that we should use the early decision states (hope we get that ballot status) to create some “surprises” for the media from our outwardly facing campaigners that will earn us a lot of early coverage and then to carry that through some of the other states in the nomination process.

    What we can do in each state will vary according to the process in that state: primary, caucus or convention state and whether the LP has ballot status and cost factors related to each state.

    Marrou’s coverage from Dixville Notch was a single hit in the nomination process, but one that we can repeat over and over if we hold our own, outwardly facing, organized and with a small but targeted budget throughout the nomination season.

  • 62 paulie // Oct 15, 2010 at 6:53 pm

    I agree with that analysis. I just don’t see a competitive primary for a nomination that is itself, at this time, a sideshow to be as newsworthy as you do.

    The LP does have primaries in a few states, but I don’t think they’ve generated significant coverage beyond what we get in non-primary states.

    I agree with you that having the ability to hold a “primary” in NH and “caucuses” in Iowa would be key, just not that we need a competitive process at that time to take advantage if we get them.

    Anyway, I don’t think I’ll get my way on this, as the range of options the LNC was considering for 2012 last time I saw were all dates in 2012, none in 2011, so unless something changes it appears we will not have nominated candidates prior to NH/IA.

  • 63 paulie // Oct 19, 2010 at 12:23 am

    This was also the LP Monday Message last week.

    See

    http://www.lp.org/blogs/staff/lp-monday-message-libertarian-donors-club-recommendations

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