IPR conducted a straw poll of delegates at the LNC chair candidates debate. About 240 people participated, or approximately half the people here as of tonight. A chart of the full results will be attached as an update, but in the meantime here are the highlights:
1) Root had a strong plurality on the first ballot but nowhere close to a majority, meaning that if these results hold in the actual vote tomorrow there will be additional rounds of voting. Some Root supporters may not have picked up ballots.
2) Phillies was easily eliminated first, carrying less than 10% of the vote. However, Rob Power told me that some Phillies supporters got there late and did not get ballots.
3) Hancock, Myers and Hinkle were all very close, and with subsequent rounds few of their votes went to Root. In our count, Hancock dropped first, then Myers, and at that point most of the votes that did not move to NOTA went to Hinkle. However, it was close, and it is likely that if Hinkle was eliminated first they would have gone to Myers.
Thanks to David Nolan, Debra Dedmon, Mark Bodenhausen, Steve LaBianca and Tom Knapp for helping with the printing, distribution, collection and counting of votes/survey results, and to Dakota Root for helping make distribution of ballots fun.
-Paulie
UPDATE: ATTACHMENT IS HERE
Buck, I know I tried to pass out ballots to everyone who was inside the convention hall around, say, fifteen minutes before the event began, and then tried to get them to anyone who came in through my assigned door for another ten minutes or so after I’d finished. I’m sorry you didn’t get a ballot initially, but I’m not aware that anyone tried to skew the results. I think it was clear from the conversation I was part of preceding the distribution of the survey that the goal was definitely to gain an accurate understanding of delegates’ preferences, not to manipulate those preferences using the quiz.
In any event, the survey seems to have predicted what actually happened quite accurately.
This straw poll was not completely accurate. I was sitting with my delegation wearing a Root/Rutherford sticker. When they passed out they ballots before the debate, they walked right me and never gave me a ballot. Where’s Christina Tobin when you need her. When I finally obtained a ballot, I voted for Phillies just to mess with the results.
And still before the debate, the people sitting in front me filled out their ballots for Hancock and Phillies. You will never guess where they listed Root, at the bottom below NOTA. Yes they had open minds.
Seriously, if it had been between Charles Manson and Wayne Root on the final ballot, The Radicals (Any Body But Root) would of voted for Manson. I can hear them saying Charlie is a Real Libertarian(Anarchist). He would never pander to recovering Republicans or overfed middle aged white guys.
The actual results were close and accurate; for chair election, in percentages earned by each of the candidates, and the order in which the candidates were dropped. The only real difference was that John Jay Myers, withdrew instead of being dropped on the subsequent ballot.
My hat is off to David Nolan for his determination in putting this together. I was very pleased to be a part of the process.
I certainly did call it pretty closely. But only because of interesting analysis from Paulie and Knapp–and this straw poll was certainly helpful too!
The winner of the best prediction goes to: . . . .
Trent Hill
Congrats on hitting all of your marks. I too knew that Root was DOA as soon as I punched in his first round total and realized he had 38%. As Knapp had said, if WAR didn’t get more than 40% on the first round he was done.
I was disappointed — but not terribly surprised — that my good friend Ernie did not get much more traction. The problem for both Root and Hancock is they are extremists. An extremist for liberty of a good thing for Ernie. But you are not going to win votes being on the edge. Root has to ship his votes in (as does Barr). Not sure who would have been eliminated in the 2nd round had Myers remained—him or Ernie. I was glad Ernie did not endorse anyone on his concession speech. FREEDOM!!!!
I was surprised at Phillies’ poor showing. He did badly at the last Convention as well. I think attendees are simply tired of his perennial candidacy. And his is unwilling to pass the torch to some of his younger followers who might be able to use his base to accomplish what he wants.
With 40% popularity neither Root nor Barr are going to be able to stack the 2012 convention with twice the attendees of the off year conventions. So these vampires will not rise until 2014 if they still remain in the LP. If the LP remains. If elections are still held.
Hinkle is the only guy that wouldn’t piss a large group of people off.
Well, those who don’t believe in Godwin’s Law, anyway.
Sorry I’m late, this internet only works in the morning. I went with the cheapest hotel in the area. I have a feeling the first ballot will bounce around with Hancock and Root, and I doubt their supporters have thought about who to vote for if their candidates is eliminated that much.
I have examined everything, and feel this party needs Hinkle. Mayers is my second choice, but he’s very green. Hinkle is the only guy that wouldn’t piss a large group of people off.
two eliminations got sliced on less than a 1% margin! i demand a recount (kidding)
I suspect this polling is roughly accurate–with Phillies bowing out first and root winning a plurality in the first round (though not a majority).
I actually think Myers will be the next to go, not Hancock–leaving the third round to Hancock, Root, and Hinkle.
3rd round Hancock gets the boot because of most of Myers’ and Phillies’ voters going to Hinkle.
4th round Hinkle beats Root with Root’s totals from the 1st round closely mirroring his finals totals (but with some spillover from the elimination of Myers).
If anybody detects I’m spoiling for a fight, you got that right. FBI-bring them on. Take it to Federal Court? I WISH YOU WOULD! Box Teddy Roosevelt style with ‘Bama? Yeah, bring on the punk. Takeover the LP-’bout time! Deal with rightists? Put them in their place.
Trent, agreed. Great twitter/national desk. Thanks to all-The Nolan, did you get my message?-for the straw poll.
My first choice is George. He has good radar-as good as mine?- in detecting rightists. & I wonder how he would deal with them e.g. how would George have deal with Bann Bobb Barr’s attempt to get the LNC to endorse Ron Dinosaur Fossil Paul & even draft/nominate him? Harshly I hope. In real time too; not months later wondering what had happened.
Second choice-anybody but Root. Give Root the Boot here & let him get back to his handlers & figure out a reshuffle for POTUS nomination. Try actually raising a lot of $ & increasing membership like you campaign promised in 2008, whydontcha? & I learned the lessons of 2008 well, having been broke & depressed then kicked to the curb. I’m not going to forget Ron Paul 35 million-Bob Milnes 0 anytime soon.
Barring a monumental posting effort here over the next 3 days, this will be the month with the second most postings in IPR history, and we’re nowhere close to November yet.
Wow, you can always count on Paulie and Tom Knapp for interesting posts. This is an amazing effort.
I think we’re fortunate to have more than 1 candidate who can do a good job.
I was very impressed with Ernie Hancock’s answers at the California state convention, and didn’t hear anything today to change that opinion.
After hearing the debate today, it occurred to me that there were a couple of things in Ron Paul’s 2008 campaign that we REALLY need to replicate: Paul’s campaign attracted voters outside the GOP, and his campaign attracted YOUNG voters.
The LP definitely needs to find a way to do those two things, so I would be inclined to vote for Hancock. Whoever the delegates elect, we need a big membership drive during this campaign.
http://twitter.com/thenationaldesk