Opinion piece emailed by Doug Guetzloe to contact.ipr@gmail.com. The subject has been discussed on past IPR threads.

Vote splitter or political game changer?

The tea party movement has been credited with a political awakening that has transformed the political landscape in 2009. Rallies, protests, the 912 movement; the health care debate and the summer of unrest at town hall meetings throughout the country has captured the imaginations of both the media and of millions of ordinary citizens who have answered the call for greater social and political involvement.

The Tea Party movement was born within an economic downturn amplified by the apparent benign neglect of an unresponsive Washington elite controlled by the Democrat Party. The Tea Party movement’s only monolithic aspect is the distrust and dislike of the current political structure which has manifested itself into a myriad of thousands of genuinely independent tea party groups throughout the country.

The various groups are generally suspicious of each other and insist on independent activities and rallies and have resisted any and all attempts to coordinate the groups into a singular voice for social and political change. Nearly all of the tea party organizers are novices to politics and devoid of the political knowledge necessary to move to the next level – political action.

Recently the debate has shifted from the various protests against government and Obama to a debate centered on whether or not the tea party “movement” should be directly involved in supporting, electing and defeating candidates. In Florida the Tea Party is now registered as a new party and is organizing to offer Tea Party candidates in the 2010 general election in Florida.

Florida, our nation’s fourth largest state, is a critical swing state in Presidential elections over the past decade and maintains a high percentage of “swing” voters that determine the outcome of the Presidential elections. Beginning with the 2000 election that threw the election to George W. Bush and ending with Florida provided its 27 electoral votes for Barrack Obama in 2008; Florida is a microcosm of political thought and action.

A careful examination of the “third” party movements in our nation’s history gives us some very interesting factors. Many people and 99% of the media promote a deep and uncritical reverence for a ‘two party system’ that has, in fact, formed America’s largest conspiracy for the restraint of political free trade – the trade in political ideas. Also, activists themselves are usually so worked up with what should be that they fail to look closely at what is and how it works for and against their efforts.

Third parties have played a huge factor in determining elections; reforming existing major parties and advancing specific ideas that have influenced major party candidates and platforms.

The major difference between the Tea Party and other prominent third party movements is the genesis of the formation of the party. All third party efforts of the last century coalesced around charismatic politicians. From the Progressive Party (Bull Moose) effort of 1912, led by Theodore Roosevelt to the more recent Reform Party effort created by Ross Perot, these third parties have been established from the top down.

The Tea party movement has led to the establishment of a political party from the bottom up. The Tea party is a genuine grassroots effort borne of an overriding interest in changing the current political structure. In analyzing the history behind similar third party movements that have been “game changers” the most stunning example of a third party’s dramatic rise to power lies with the Republican Party.

When established in 1854 the Republican Party was a third party, not one of the two major parties. It’s interesting to note that in published accounts of the day many of the partisans of the Whig Party, including Abraham Lincoln denounced the new Republican Party as an effort that would “split the vote” of the Whigs and allow Democrats to win.

The Republican Party went on to win the Presidency and the Congress within six years of formation. The Whig Party became a footnote in history after electing Presidents; congressmen and other positions for decades.

The Tea Party has many dramatic similarities to the Republican Party and also shares the absence of a charismatic national leader. Both efforts were based on grassroots enthusiasm and nearly all of the Republican Party founders and early participants were originally Whig party leaders.

Unfortunately for the Republican Party leaders, the Republican Party has clearly abandoned the very principles that led it to power in 1980 and 1994. The victory of Ronald Reagan in 1980 was the culmination of a sixteen-year battle for the “heart and soul of the Party” that began with the 1964 nomination of Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater. Interestingly enough, Ronald Reagan was a Democrat in that election battle, switching to the GOP after that election and becoming the very representation of traditional GOP conservative values of less government; less taxes and more individual freedom.

Currently a similar battle for control of the GOP is underway throughout the nation. The out of touch GOP party bosses are fighting back with every tool in their arsenal, including “party purges” that remove conservative activists from GOP positions. Supporting the GOP party bosses are many GOP elected officials who have strayed from the traditional GOP values and standards and have supported increased government and increased taxes on a beleaguered citizenry. These so-called RINOs (Republicans In Name Only) can be clearly identified by their pro-tax; pro-debt; pro-government votes. While there are many traditional conservative GOP elected officials doing the right thing, there are probably just as many on the other side that have abandoned the conservative mantle of Goldwater/Reagan principles and have become quasi-Democrat in their view of government.

Can a Tea Party make a difference? Based on the historical analysis of other third party movements the answer is clearly yes. Many of the third party efforts through our history have resulted in the merger of third party principles with the existing major two parties. The Progressive movement led by TR and Lafollette resulted in the adoption of many of TR’s positions within the Republican Party. The Socialist movement – which by the way – had over 1,200 elected officials including members of Congress in the 1910’s – resulted in the integration of many of their viewpoints within the Democrat party. In Minnesota the third party – Farmer-Labor Party reigned for 28 years, electing Governors; US Senators and legislators before it merged into the Democrat Party.

In New York the Conservative Party has made a huge impact on forcing the Republican Party to the right. Conversely the Liberal Party in NY has had the same opposite effect on the Democrat Party. The Liberal Party has been going strong since 1944 and Conservative Party since 1962.

The Tea Party movement is an indigenous; grassroots movement that advocates real “change” in the political and social structure that currently controls government. The natural manifestation of the movement is to direct all the energy of the movement toward political change by making certain that honest traditional conservative; less government proponents are actually on a general election ballot this November.

Can a Tea Party nominee win? The answer is clearly yes. In reviewing the results of the NY 23 congressional race, it is clear that the Tea Party endorsed candidate was within a couple of points of winning that seat over the Democrat and the Republican.

The Republican – a true RINO – dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democrat. Since that time, several major polls have shown widespread support for a Tea Party candidate. Rasmussen; CNN; NY Times all have polling data that shows a Tea Party candidate winning over a Democrat and a Republican in a general election scenario.

While many GOP supporters within the tea party non-party movement have decried the Tea Party for potentially “splitting” the vote, it now appears that the GOP has been eclipsed by Tea Party candidates in many cases.

Newly elected US Senator Scott Brown is another example. Brown ran against both parties and denounced the national Republican Party during his campaign. With only 12% of the Massachusetts’s voters registered Republican, Brown’s victory was clearly a ‘tea party’ victory and not a victory for the national Republican Party interests.

The key to Tea Party victories is that in a general election scenario, the victor in any race is that individual who receives the most votes – no majority is needed (50% +1) to win – simply a plurality is required (one vote more than the next candidate).

Another critical consideration is to make certain that at least one truly conservative candidate is in the general election and the Tea Party is fortunate that as a minor party the Tea Party can place individuals in the various races without a primary, thus giving the Tea Party the flexibility it needs to make certain that an honest candidate with integrity that reflects the patriotic values of a constitutional conservative is offered to the voters.

The Tea Party leadership has urged Republican activists to remain registered as Republicans and continue the battle within the GOP structure which can provide tea party activists with “two bites at the apple,” instead of just one.

The Tea Party can be a “game-changer” in 2010 – with a combination of strong – constitutionally driven candidates and with direct impact in the direction of the Republican Party leadership and structure.

Doug Guetzloe
Chairman
Ax the Tax
www.AxTheTax.org
“Over $32.5 Billion in
proposed taxes defeated”
P. O. Box 531101
Orlando, FL 32853
Phone: (407) 312-1781
Fax: (407) 895-8331
doug@axthetax.org