This was brought up in the comments covering IPR readers predictions: how’d we do?; I said,
anyone want to make any early predictions for 2010, ’12 or beyond?
So far, the only one bold enough to reveal the contents of the crystal ball is IPR’s 2008 prognosticator of the year, John C. Jackson:
2012 Predictions:
Obama 57.3%
Huckabee 41.5
Nader 0.5
Root 0.4
Baldwin 0.1
Sheehan 0.1
Others 0.1
Anyone else want to take a stab at it? Upcoming special elections, 2010 races, and even the distant future are all fair game here.
57 responses so far ↓
1 svf // Nov 9, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Obama 50% (D)
Palin 25% (R)
Bloomberg 24% (I)
Nader 0.3% (I)
Ruwart 0.3% (L)
Other 0.4%
2 Andy Craig // Nov 9, 2008 at 1:42 pm
I think it’s a fairly safe bet Root won’t be the LP nominee in 2012.
Really, as for the election in general, the ball’s in the GOP’s hands. It all depends on what direction they go now, andthat’s not really clear yet. The House leadership elections will be something to watch.
3 gaflat // Nov 9, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Mark Sanford (Republican) – 47.5 %
Barack Obama (Democratic) – 44.0 %
Jesse Ventura (Independence) – 6.0 %
George Noory (Libertarian) – 2.0 %
Cindy Sheehan (Green) – 0.25 %
Others – 0.25 %
4 Eternaverse // Nov 9, 2008 at 2:04 pm
I’m hoping Angela Keaton and Michelle Shinghal will be the Boston Tea Party Prez/ VP nominees.
5 Hugh Jass // Nov 9, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Bobby Jindal 49.5%
Barack Obama 48.0%
Mary Ruwart 0.7%
Matt Gonzalez 0.4%
Darrell Castle 0.2%
Cindy Sheehan 0.2%
6 bsharitt // Nov 9, 2008 at 2:20 pm
If bloomberg ran, I don’t think he’s only going to take from Palin, and Obama certainly wouldn’t get 50% if Bloomberg go 25%.
The mostl likely 3rd party guy I see in 2012 is Ventura, and I see him pulling in some Ross Perot numbers, any where from 5-20%
The Republican pick is still to hard to figure out. It depends on who wins the GOP civil war, the moderates or far right fundies.
7 bsharitt // Nov 9, 2008 at 2:22 pm
I also see Ohio’s district 70 electing a Libertarian to the state house of representatives.
//could just be wishful thinking since I intend to run for that office as a Libertatian.
8 Mike Gillis // Nov 9, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Barack Obama (Democrat): 57%
Mitt Romney (Republican): 34%
Jesse Ventura (Independence): 8%
Mary Ruwart (Libertarian): 0.3%
Chuck Baldwin (Constitution): 0.2%
Jesse Johnson (Green): 0.12%
9 Mike Gillis // Nov 9, 2008 at 2:48 pm
I think Palin will definitely run, but won’t stand a chance in the primaries.
Look at all the criticism she got from prominent conservative pundits and columnists when she was on the ticket, whether they liked it or not. Now look at all the folks tossing her under the bus and ask yourself how many conservatives felt the same way about her as George Will, but held their tongue out of “party loyalty”.
I predict she’s the GOP’s new equivalent of Pat Buchanan. Runs in the primaries and fires up the culture war base, but comes in third place at best.
Don’t see her following Buchanan into the world of third party politics though.
10 svf // Nov 9, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Don’t see her following Buchanan into the world of third party politics though.
how about as the AK Independence Party’s first ever presidential candidate? wheeee!
11 bsharitt // Nov 9, 2008 at 3:26 pm
I agree with the Palin as Buchanan thing to a point. The big difference is that Buchanan is actually a pretty smart guy(doesn’t mean he’s right), but I can’t say the same for Palin.
12 paulie cannoli // Nov 9, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Palin as a CP candidate might be interesting.
They turned away Keyes, but she has way more star power. Could they resist?
13 Andy Craig // Nov 9, 2008 at 3:35 pm
A Ventura third party run would be at best in Nader 2000 territory, and that’s optimistic. He’s gone off the deep end, and would be unlikely to attract any one but Alex Jones fans.
Bloomberg won’t run against Obama. That’s why he didn’t run this year.
Gary Johnson, if he could be convinced to run, would be the strongest Ron Paul Republican candidate by far. He is a tad more moderate than Paul, but he’s still essentially on the right side of most issues, including foreign policy, monetary policy, and most notably from his time as NM’s Governor, drug policy.
Some people have talked about Mark Sanford, but 1) I don’t think he’ll run, and 2) he’s much more of a “mainstream” conservative than Johnson. I forget who he endorsed in 2008 (not Ron Paul), but he did endorse McCain in 2000 and Bush in 2004. He’s also generally supported the war, iirc.
14 paulie cannoli // Nov 9, 2008 at 3:36 pm
I think Ventura is more likely to run than, and would do better than, Johnson.
15 Ross Levin // Nov 9, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Done with one campaign, move onto the next…
16 Andy Craig // Nov 9, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Ventura v. Johnson is really apples and oranges, since Johnson would be running the Republican primaries and Ventura presumably as a third party or independent.
And Ventura’s obsession with conspiracy theories, like all other conspiracy-obsessed candidates, would alienate the 99% of the population that doesn’t really care about who killed JFK, how the Illuminati run the world, or how Dick Cheney the Reptilian planned 9/11. He’s not even that great on the issues or his record- he’s certainly no libertarian, and he completely squandered the victory he won when he was elected Governor.
17 Mike Theodore // Nov 9, 2008 at 4:33 pm
This shit is too scary for me.
18 paulie cannoli // Nov 9, 2008 at 4:37 pm
alienate the 99% of the population
Is that a scientific survey? What’s the margin of error?
19 Thomas M. Sipos // Nov 9, 2008 at 5:56 pm
I predict the LP will hover around 0.4% in 2012, regardless of who they nominate.
I’ll go further and prognosticate that the LP will receive…
2012 ….. 0.4%
2016 ….. 0.4%
2020 ….. 0/4%
2024 ….. 0.4%
2028 ….. 0.4%
2032 ….. 0/4%
2036 ….. 0.4%
2040 ….. 0.4%
2044 ….. 0/4%
2048 ….. 0.4%
2052 ….. 0.4%
2056 ….. 0/4%
2060 ….. 0.4%
2064 ….. 0.4%
2068 ….. 0/4%
2072 ….. 0.4%
2076 ….. 0.4%
2080 ….. 0/4%
2084 ….. 0.4%
2088 ….. 0.4%
2092 ….. 0/4%
2096 ….. 0.4%
2100 ….. 0.4%
2104 ….. 0/4%
etc.
Those are rough averages. It might plummet to 0.3%, or skyrocket to 0.5%, on a rare year, but will soon reorient to 0.4%.
I also predict that every election:
1. Reformers (by whatever new name) will gripe that “I’d like to see a little liberty in my own lifetime.”
2. Reformers and Radicals (of whatever new names) will threaten to leave the LP, but won’t.
3. Reformers and Radicals (of whatever new names) will declare the LP finally dead. But the LP refuses to die.
4. Reformers and Radicals (of whatever new names) will predict huge electoral success if their plans are implemented.
5. Many of these plans will be implemented, without any effect.
6. Everyone will gripe that there are too many stodgy old white guys in the LP, and we need to attract more youth, women, and color.
7. Robert Milnes will declare that he will win the presidency, as soon as he finds a libertarian woman to be his running mate on a Progressive Alliance fusion ticket.
20 Jimmy Clifton // Nov 9, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Interesting prognostications. If Sheehan is the Green Party nominee, I will quit the Party. She’s a loony and whacky as McKinney. Kat Swift is the only one the Greens have that is credible, at this time.
21 paulie cannoli // Nov 9, 2008 at 7:06 pm
How about Jesse Johnson, Rich Whitney, or Malik Rahim? Matt Gonzalez if he comes back to the Greens?
22 Spence // Nov 9, 2008 at 7:11 pm
I would also like to predict that on every election:
1. Tom Sipos will put on his novelty spinner hat and point to everyone not happy with the results with a drooling grin on his face as he stupidly utters: “CLUB
!!!!”
2. Soon, the Purists and Reformers will set aside their differences and the “Reform” population will grow.
3. The only holdouts every election year will be the “educationists”, who, like Tom, will don their technicolor spinner hats and drool as they chant “CLUB” with grins on their faces.
4. The educationists will proceed to shoot down or stomp their feet on many valid plans.
5. Oh yes, and a new party, whether it be the Boston Tea Party, or a genuine Libertarian Party actually dedicated to success will come along and finally gain electoral success. The next day, the educationists will be protesting against this success, ironically showing the first spark of activism since the party’s formation in 1971.
Fools. Milnes has a better chance at getting clinical help than you guys.
23 chinese_conservative // Nov 9, 2008 at 7:12 pm
In 2012 the Republican Party will be transformed or by near death. Here is my endorsements for the GOP:
Barry Goldwater Jr. President
Roy Moore Vice President
If that doesn’t work here is CP endorsements:
Chuck Baldwin President
Paul Venable Vice President
For 2010 Governor Campaign endorsements:
Alabama Roy Moore
California Barry Goldwater or Don Grundmann or Ezola Foster
Oregon Keith Humphrey
Texas Ron Paul (if he still is healthy he needs to be in good health so he can campaign all across the state)
Virginia Howard Phillips
Legislatures:
San Francisco Justin Raimondo
Los Angeles Robert Stark
San Diego Duncan Hunter Jr.
Pennsylvania Jim Clymer
24 Curt Boyd // Nov 9, 2008 at 7:51 pm
I think that in 2010, Carl Romanelli (Green) will run for Governor of PA. Clymer for the Constitution Party…and the Libertarians will get one of their old faithfuls to run…Betsy Summers, Berlie Etzel, or someone else.
I’d like to see the BTP nominate Keaton for President in 2012…I don’t think you’ll see Bloomberg or Ventura as Independents though.
Not sure if Nader will run again…he’ll be 78 years old at that point.
I hope to God that Root is not the LP’s nominee, or they won’t have my support for President again! I’d like to see Steve Kubby give it another go personally.
Palin will get trounced in the GOP primaries. Not sure who will come out of them though…Jeb Bush? Bobby Jindal? Mitt Romney?
25 paulie cannoli // Nov 9, 2008 at 7:52 pm
Not sure if Nader will run again…he’ll be 78 years old at that point.
Didn’t stop Gravel.
26 Ross Levin // Nov 9, 2008 at 8:02 pm
Gravel looked younger than McCain, though. Nader looks half past dead at this point, let alone four years from now.
And no way another Bush would run for president.
27 paulie cannoli // Nov 9, 2008 at 8:05 pm
Nader campaigned in all 50 states this year, including 21 different towns in Mass in one day.
I’d say he is very youthful for his age.
As for the Bushes, I predict we will see a whole bunch more of them run.
28 LaineRBT // Nov 9, 2008 at 8:09 pm
Nader if he does run will do worse than this year or about the same but certainly no better. The only way Nader will have a beneficial impact is if he uses his experience and fund raising ability to the benefit of another candidate as their running mate. I personally think a Ventura/Nader ticket could be a credible threat but I would hope they run on a party line rather than independents. If they did for some odd reason run together I would predict 3-6% of the vote for them.
29 LaineRBT // Nov 9, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Rich Whitney benefited in 2006 from an exceptionally unpopular governor during the Illinois gubernatorial race; he does not have the national profile to run a credible campaign at this point.
30 Dodge Landesman // Nov 9, 2008 at 8:22 pm
Mr. Sipos, I was very amused by your predictions, I just hope you’re not right. Before I give my predictions, here is what I think will happen:
Obama will have a terrible first two years, and there’ll then be a conservative revolution in congress. The conservatives will then balance Obama out (and I think he is good at working with people), and he will have a very successful second part of his term. Kind of like Bill Clinton. I also think that delegates at the LP will not make the same mistake twice, and nominate a REAL Libertarian for the presidency. Sorry Root.
So:
Barack Obama (Democrat)- 51%
Bobby Jindal (Republican)-49%
Mary Ruwart (Libertarian)- .6%
Matt Gonzales (Green)- .5%
Racist Homophobe (Constitution)- .1%
31 Steven R Linnabary // Nov 9, 2008 at 9:24 pm
Since everybody seems to be peering into their chrystal balls (or meth), here’s mine:
Biden/Hillary (D)(Obama’s plane gets shot down while visiting troops): 59%
Huckabee/Jeb (R): 37%
Rachel Mills/? (L): 2%
Kat Swift/? (G): 1%
Others (inc. Keyes, Nader, Ventura, et al) : 1%
32 paulie cannoli // Nov 9, 2008 at 9:26 pm
[Homer Simpson] MMMM….Meth [/Homer]
33 darolew // Nov 9, 2008 at 9:35 pm
I predict Huckabee, Romney, and Palin will all makes runs for the GOP nomination. Jindal, Gary Johnson, and Goldwater Jr. are other possibilities. Palin, for certain, wouldn’t get the nomination — neither would any Ron Paul-esque candidate.
Whoever wins, I highly doubt that Obama will be reelected. He’ll have a prolonged recession on his shoulders, a failed and unpopular conflict in Afghanistan (and possibly other wars), and probably some unpopular gun control legislation.
If Ventura runs, which is probable, he’ll get 6-7% if he avoids conspiracy theory stuff or 1-2% if he fails to do so.
The Libertarian, Green, and Constitution parties won’t change by more than +/- 0.2%.
34 TheOriginalAndy // Nov 9, 2008 at 10:02 pm
The “conspiracy stuff” has made Jesse Ventura more popular than he already was.
35 paulie cannoli // Nov 9, 2008 at 10:05 pm
Yep.
And it will only get more popular as time goes on.
36 darolew // Nov 9, 2008 at 11:09 pm
Idiocy does tend to be contagious.
37 paulie cannoli // Nov 9, 2008 at 11:10 pm
Luckily, so is truth.
38 Trent Hill // Nov 9, 2008 at 11:17 pm
I’ll only make some comments on who MIGHT run for the Republican nomination in 2012.
Gov. Palin (AK)
Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA)
Gov. Tom Pawlenty (MO)
Gov. Mitt Romney (MA)
Gov. Mike Huckabee (AK)
Judge Roy Moore (AL, but he threatens to run every four years)
Rep. Barry Goldwater Jr.
Gov. Gary Johnson
Lots of governors.
39 gaflat // Nov 9, 2008 at 11:32 pm
Radio host George Noory has stated he plans on running for President in 2012 and his “friend” Richard C. Hoagland spoke at the LNC this year. If Chuck Baldwin can get .25% of the vote as the CP candidate and host of a radio show heard on 6 or 7 stations surely George Noory can get 2% as the LP candidate and host of a radio show heard on 600 stations. (I’m speaking in terms of raw name familiarity. Obviously he’d have to stop hosting if he ran.) This would also be par for this year’s course of the Libertarians nominating novelty candidates.
40 Trent Hill // Nov 9, 2008 at 11:34 pm
George Noory or Art Bell would be…..interesting…candidates for the LP.
41 paulie cannoli // Nov 9, 2008 at 11:35 pm
Yes, I agree that would be interesting.
42 LaineRBT // Nov 9, 2008 at 11:37 pm
Noory might have name recognition but he would marginalized for his conspiracy theories and belief in aliens. I highly doubt he would do any better than any previous LP candidate.
Art Bell stated he supported Obama this year so I sort of doubt he would run for the LP nomination.
43 paulie cannoli // Nov 9, 2008 at 11:38 pm
What percentage on the public do you think believes in aliens?
How does it compare to the percent that votes LP?
44 johncjackson // Nov 10, 2008 at 12:45 am
My predictions were not very serious, especially the Root one. I think my Root predication really means “any LP candidate.” Purist, Pragmatic, Reform, Radical, Congressman or Unemployed computer programmer, whatever- around 0.4% will be it. Outside of a mega-celebrity ( comedians and infomercial stars don’t count) with super-wealthy (BILLIONaire, not small time millionaires) running mate, that’s it.
I was also poking fun at Nader being a lifetime candidate, at least a little. Baldwin and Sheehan were just CP and GP placeholders.
Huckabee was a guess but based on the likelihood the GOP will continue in the big-government mold but attempt to go more for the social conservatives, completely ignoring limited government types even more and losing even more ground.
How well will Obama do? I don’t know, but I guess I am the type of person who hopes things go well for our country regardless of politics. I know a lot of people would prefer for the world to end or some other catastrophe to bring about “real change” but I am pessimistic about that happening from within the political system.
45 G.E. // Nov 10, 2008 at 2:26 am
1. Robert Milnes (Republican/Democratic/Green/Constitution/Libertarian/Socialist fusion candidate) 99.6%
2. Ron Paul (Losertarian) 0.39%
3. Kent Mesplay (Write-in) 0.01%
But then all of the electors realize the American people are idiots and vote for the animated corpse of Dick Cheney instead.
46 Jeremy Young // Nov 10, 2008 at 3:50 am
I’ll vote for Dean Barkley and Anthony Pollina for anything. Those guys are heroes in my book.
47 citizen1 // Nov 10, 2008 at 10:21 am
Palin 48
Obama 47
Ventura 2
Baldwin 1
Nader 1
Root .5
Green candidate .2
Keyes -.2
all other .5
48 Michael Gilson-De Lemos // Nov 10, 2008 at 11:05 am
I think the most inportant factor for the US LP is to get better focus on the state level and building constituency on approach and issues.
The co-ordination and quality among the state parties, and with US LP, and short campaign period, is a key and often limiting factor.
49 paulie cannoli // Nov 10, 2008 at 11:52 am
http://pauliecannoli.wordpress.com/2008/11/09/obama-nation-the-futures-so-bright-i-gotta-wear-shades/
50 Coming Back to the LP // Nov 10, 2008 at 1:15 pm
My predictions:
Root, Ruwart, and Kubby will all contend for the LP nomination. None of them will be chosen again.
The LP will restore its principled, radical platform and nominate another semi-famous outsider for President who will stick to the radical, principled platform.
The LP will begin to focus on state and local party building projects and secure numerous downticket victories, while still earning low, but better than Clark presidential numbers, finally breaking 2% nationwide.
Nader will finally give up.
Ventura will disappear again during the off years and show up too late again to run for anything. But he’ll go on ranting and write another book.
Palin will not generate enough financial support to enter the Republican nomination race in a serious way and will not be included in any primary, caucus or debate.
Romney will try again, but he won’t be using his own money and will drop out.
Ron Paul will run again for the R nomination, reluctantly again, gain little traction, raise less than $1 million and drop out all in 2011.
Republicans will choose someone making their first attempt for President with little hope of winning, perhaps Newt. Republicans will take 43% in November.
Most of the smaller third parties will be in decline.
Baldwin will not run again.
Allan Keyes will win the Constitution Party nod and 150,000 votes.
Bloomberg’s time has passed. No run for Pres.
The Green Party will fall even lower, 125,000, in the Presidential but gain more local victories.
The Economy will still be foundering. Obama will employ massive New Deal type programs, move center left and win 54% despite the disaster his policies have caused. He will blame business and capitalism and protect the Federal Reserve and Big Government socialism that really caused the problems. Many of his friends and supporters will become new millionaires.
51 paulie cannoli // Nov 10, 2008 at 1:21 pm
The LP will restore its principled, radical platform and nominate another semi-famous outsider for President who will stick to the radical, principled platform.
Any guesses on who that might be?
Ron Paul will run again for the R nomination, reluctantly again, gain little traction, raise less than $1 million
If Ron Paul runs again, he will raise way more than $1 million.
52 BR_Progressive // Nov 10, 2008 at 10:46 pm
I am not going to make predictions just yet for 2012, but as of right now I’m hoping that Gonzalez will run for the Green nomination with Nader’s support and reunite the Greens and Naderites.
In 2010 I’m hoping we can talk Rahim into taking on another corrupt politician here in LA: Vitter. Of course if Rahim wins against Jefferson I would rather him run for re-elction.
I have approached State Representative Michael Jackson (I-LA) about joining the Green Party and I’m hoping he’ll make a run for office in 2010 or 2011 under our banner.
53 Trent Hill // Nov 10, 2008 at 10:53 pm
BR_Progressive,
Do you,by chance, goto LSU? Im a junior there.
54 BR_Progressive // Nov 10, 2008 at 11:05 pm
No, I’m actually not in school right now, but I’m hoping to go back next year.
55 Trent Hill // Nov 10, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Convincing Michael Jackson to go Green probably wouldnt be much of a stretch–he’s QUITE angry with the Democratic Party here in District 6, who basically forsook him because he was black.
Also–if Gonzalez rejoins the Greens and runs for President in 2012, with an endorsement from Nader–i think the Naderites and Greens will finally be reunited.
56 Weasler // Jul 17, 2009 at 10:04 am
I like Roy Moore for President in 2012.
If Moore wins as Governor of Alabama in 2010, he is likely to be mentioned as a Presidential prospect for 2012. If he plays his cards right, he can be the next Ronald Reagan. There would be a lot of parallels with 1980. For instance, the Democruds were sure that Carter could beat Reagan, whom they thought they could brand as an extremist, a racist, a homophobe, out of touch, etc. And how wrong they were! Reagan won by a landslide. I see the same happening with this creep Obama against Moore in 2012.
57 paulie // Jul 17, 2009 at 10:36 am
To hell with Roy Moore. He reminds me most of George Wallace.
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