The latest from Ballot-access news:
On October 10, Rasmussen Reports released a Vermont gubernatorial poll, showing Republican Jim Douglas at 45%, independent Anthony Pollina 25%, Democrat Gaye Symington 20%, other and undecided 10%. However, the poll also seemed to suggest that if voters get the idea that if Symington has a better chance to win than Pollina, that Pollina’s support would drop to 4%; whereas if voters feel that Pollina has a better chance than Symington, that 19% would still stick with Symington. See here. In Vermont, if no one gets 50% for Governor, the legislature chooses the next governor. Vermont has a Democratic majority in both houses of the legislature currently, and that is not expected to change
21 responses so far ↓
1 Trent Hill // Oct 20, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Looks like if the Democrat wouldn’t have run, Pollina could’ve won.
2 Ross Levin // Oct 20, 2008 at 3:31 pm
I still think he should have taken the Democrats’ offer. But I hope he proves me wrong.
3 Trent Hill // Oct 20, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Im thinking that now too. Becoming Lt. Governor would have put him in a pretty good bargaining position to run for Congress, Senate, or Governor next time around.
4 G.E. // Oct 20, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Refusing the Democrats offer showed moral courage on the part of Pollina — and then he threw it all away by tossing off the Progressive label and going independent.
If he is an eel like Bernie Sanders, he should have just taken the Dems’ offer.
5 Trent Hill // Oct 20, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Or, ya know, if he wants to have any EFFECT.
Getting into office is the first, hardest, and most important step. That doesnt mean one should betray his principles to do so–but they should recognize that no policy is enacted or effected if you LOSE the election.
6 Ross Levin // Oct 20, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Trent, that kind of thing – you know, the real world – doesn’t have too much of an affect around here.
7 paulie cannoli // Oct 20, 2008 at 4:58 pm
It has plenty of affect, but little effect.
8 G.E. // Oct 20, 2008 at 6:14 pm
You guys are so smart. I’m just a silly little boy.
9 Trent Hill // Oct 20, 2008 at 7:29 pm
*shrug* I didnt say it. =)
Fact is this: Ron Paul got elected, so did Howard Buffett and H.R. Gross. When you get elected,you make a difference in policy and are better able to educate. Losing for the sake of losing is stupid,and a concept that third-parties whole-heartedly embrace.
10 Ross Levin // Oct 20, 2008 at 8:33 pm
GE, it wasn’t a personal attack against you, it’s just a reaction to the attitude in the third party world that it doesn’t matter if you lose. If you don’t win every race, that’s fine, but if you’re losing 80% of your races and 99% or 100% on the state/federal level, you cannot be making a difference in public policy.
11 paulie cannoli // Oct 20, 2008 at 9:05 pm
if you’re losing 80% of your races and 99% or 100% on the state/federal level, you cannot be making a difference in public policy.
Not necessarily true at all.
12 Ross Levin // Oct 20, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Yeah, now that I reread it, that was a dumb comment.
But the point I was trying to make: it’s not a good thing to be losing all the time, and Democrats aren’t always evil. Also, I’m just kind generally pissed off today.
GE, why do you think going independent was cowardly of him?
13 Ross Levin // Oct 20, 2008 at 10:13 pm
John Murphy said this to me today:
The 20th century journalist I.F. Stone once said “in order for somebody to win an important, major fight 100 years hence, a lot of other people have got to be willing — for the sheer fun and joy of it — to go right ahead and fight, knowing you’re going to lose. You mustn’t feel like a martyr. You’ve got to enjoy it”. While I can’t say that I always enjoy it because it is very frustrating, I know that the battle can be won in the long run even if I’m not there to see the victory itself.
14 paulie cannoli // Oct 20, 2008 at 10:17 pm
I have no such pessimism about how long it will take, and I’m about 20 years older than you. I fully expect that I will live to see some palpable victory, although I will not be surprised if I don’t.
15 Austin Cassidy // Oct 20, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Ummm… unless I’m misreading this poll, it’s basically saying that if the election were held today and these were the results, Pollina would be the next governor.
The Republican is below 50% and Pollina is ahead of the Democrat. The race goes to the Democratically controlled legislature, which will pick Pollina over the Republican. End of story.
16 mattc // Oct 20, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Why wouldn’t they pick the Democrat?
17 Trent Hill // Oct 20, 2008 at 11:40 pm
I believe they could pick anyone of the declared candidates right?
18 Jeremy Young // Oct 21, 2008 at 12:59 am
There is a tradition in Vermont that the candidate with a plurality gets chosen by the legislature, regardless of party. This happened in 2002, when Douglas beat Doug Racine 45%-42%. The Democrats had a huge majority in the legislature, but Racine stood down and conceded the election to Douglas out of deference to popular will.
Also, would the Democratic legislature be more likely to pick a left-wing independent over Douglas, with whom they have a good relationship? I’m not so sure.
Finally, I can’t wrap my brain around the internals of that poll. It seems like all the people backing Pollina don’t like him but are voting for him because they think he’s ahead of Symington, while the people backing Symington are die-hard supporters who don’t think she has a chance. Shouldn’t the third party candidate be the one people support on principle, while the Democrat gets votes based on electability?
19 kozmik // Oct 28, 2008 at 11:33 pm
Internals of the poll:
nobody *likes* Pollina; he’s an unabashed narcissistic motormouth. People vote for him because his positions, sincere or not, are more progressive, less timid and better articulated than anyone else’s. Everybody *likes* Symington because she’s kind-hearted and endearingly inept. People vote for her to support the Democratic Party. The emotional difference between the two is that Pollina palpably hungers for influence, which normally is a turn-off but this time is opposite someone palpably desperate not to win. Gaye Symington was recruited to play Aunt Sally (giving up her legislative seat and speakership in the process) not to thwart Pollina so much as avoid the embarrassment of fielding no candidate for the highest state office. That, how can I put this delicately?, moronic self-serving strategic incompetence is reason enough to vote for Pollina, as well as virtually the only reason to vote for Symington. So, what you see in the poll is doctrinaire Democrats vs. fed-up lefties vs. all the people who aren’t particularly upset by an obstructionist governor, that last being the largest and least fluid number. Absent either of the other candidates, Douglas would almost certainly still win because many members of the other two groups would decline to vote, or would vote ineffectively, rather than unite behind a candidate they half-heartedly support or against a candidate they half-heartedly oppose.
The legislature will elect the candidate receiving a plurality regardless of affiliation. There’s no suspense there. Anything else would be political suicide, undertaken only in a perceived crisis such as demonstrable fraud or a threat to statehood.
20 paulie cannoli // Oct 28, 2008 at 11:36 pm
nobody *likes* Pollina
Oh come on. Somebody must. Nobody?
21 kozmik // Oct 28, 2008 at 11:56 pm
I realize I didn’t sum:
Douglas will win this election regardless of percentages. Had all of the opposition votes gathered behind a single candidate and a clear purpose he may have had a real race. That opportunity disappeared when the Democrats put up a straw candidate, an implausible candidate, a monkey-wrench candidate. Now all he has to achieve is 1% more than Pollina, which he might have done with Republicans alone. In the name of Democracy the Democratic legislature will elect him. As it is, though, even disgusted Democrats and infuriated Progressives are finding his inoffensiveness alluring compared to the reactionary back-stabbing they see in each other.
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