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	<title>Comments on: Update:  Paul will keep name on ballot in Virginia</title>
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	<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/</link>
	<description>Covering America's third parties and independent candidates since May 2008</description>
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		<title>By: Thomas L. Knapp</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-10016</link>
		<dc:creator>Thomas L. Knapp</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 12:04:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-10016</guid>
		<description>Ross,

You write:

&quot;If Clinton attempted that, it would be the end of her.&quot;

My hypothesis is that now that Clinton has arranged for a roll-call vote, it will be someone else (with some level of plausible deniability of association with her campaign) who breaks a very ugly story on Obama over the weekend.

The spread is not as wide as people think. 

It takes 2,118 delegates to secure the nomination. Obama has 2229.5 -- 463 superdelegates, 1766.5 pledged delegates. Clinton has 1896.5 -- 257 superdelegates, 1639.5 pledged delegates.

If something bad enough about Obama comes out to sway superdelegates,  fewer than half of Obama&#039;s (222, to be exact) would have to switch to Clinton to give her the nomination on the first ballot.

So, imagine that the Sunday morning talking head shows this weekend are dominated by something on Obama on the level of, say, the John Edwards affair/love child scandal. Sure, there would be some nattering to the effect of &quot;I bet Hillary paid the private investigator who took those pictures,&quot; but the bottom line is that she would be riding in on a white horse to save the Democratic Party at the last minute as it was about to commit suicide.

She&#039;d probably still lose the general election to McCain (as Obama likely would have anyway, ugly story or not), but her stock would be blue chip with her party, she could blame the loss on the Obama fallout, and she&#039;d be the obvious 2012 nominee.

How likely is something like this to happen? I had discounted the idea almost 100% until it became obvious that getting a roll call vote was a major goal for her.

Like I said, there&#039;s a REASON she wants one so badly ... and the most obvious possible reason is that she has some incredible piece of dirt ready to drop on Obama&#039;s head before that vote takes place. A less obvious possible reason is that congresscritters will get some kind of national security briefing this weekend divulging information about Obama that the rest of us will only hear about later (e.g. he met with Osama bin Laden last month in Afghanistan or some weird shit) ... and there are more than 222 Democratic superdelegates who are congresscritters.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ross,</p>
<p>You write:</p>
<p>&#8220;If Clinton attempted that, it would be the end of her.&#8221;</p>
<p>My hypothesis is that now that Clinton has arranged for a roll-call vote, it will be someone else (with some level of plausible deniability of association with her campaign) who breaks a very ugly story on Obama over the weekend.</p>
<p>The spread is not as wide as people think. </p>
<p>It takes 2,118 delegates to secure the nomination. Obama has 2229.5 &#8212; 463 superdelegates, 1766.5 pledged delegates. Clinton has 1896.5 &#8212; 257 superdelegates, 1639.5 pledged delegates.</p>
<p>If something bad enough about Obama comes out to sway superdelegates,  fewer than half of Obama&#8217;s (222, to be exact) would have to switch to Clinton to give her the nomination on the first ballot.</p>
<p>So, imagine that the Sunday morning talking head shows this weekend are dominated by something on Obama on the level of, say, the John Edwards affair/love child scandal. Sure, there would be some nattering to the effect of &#8220;I bet Hillary paid the private investigator who took those pictures,&#8221; but the bottom line is that she would be riding in on a white horse to save the Democratic Party at the last minute as it was about to commit suicide.</p>
<p>She&#8217;d probably still lose the general election to McCain (as Obama likely would have anyway, ugly story or not), but her stock would be blue chip with her party, she could blame the loss on the Obama fallout, and she&#8217;d be the obvious 2012 nominee.</p>
<p>How likely is something like this to happen? I had discounted the idea almost 100% until it became obvious that getting a roll call vote was a major goal for her.</p>
<p>Like I said, there&#8217;s a REASON she wants one so badly &#8230; and the most obvious possible reason is that she has some incredible piece of dirt ready to drop on Obama&#8217;s head before that vote takes place. A less obvious possible reason is that congresscritters will get some kind of national security briefing this weekend divulging information about Obama that the rest of us will only hear about later (e.g. he met with Osama bin Laden last month in Afghanistan or some weird shit) &#8230; and there are more than 222 Democratic superdelegates who are congresscritters.</p>
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		<title>By: randallthayes</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-10007</link>
		<dc:creator>randallthayes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 04:27:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-10007</guid>
		<description>I guess this is just another example of life imitating art.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I guess this is just another example of life imitating art.</p>
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		<title>By: Hugh Jass</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-10001</link>
		<dc:creator>Hugh Jass</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 03:29:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-10001</guid>
		<description>http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/021897.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/021897.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/021897.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: Hugh Jass</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-10000</link>
		<dc:creator>Hugh Jass</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 03:28:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-10000</guid>
		<description>This might be a good reason not to have Rockwell on the ticket, though he was probably joking.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This might be a good reason not to have Rockwell on the ticket, though he was probably joking.</p>
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		<title>By: Fred Church Ortiz</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-9998</link>
		<dc:creator>Fred Church Ortiz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 03:26:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-9998</guid>
		<description>No pressure though :D</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No pressure though <img src='http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif' alt=':D' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Fred Church Ortiz</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-9997</link>
		<dc:creator>Fred Church Ortiz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 03:26:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-9997</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Would Paul possibly ask to be taken off, given that he would be on the top of the ticket? That might make a difference to him.&lt;/i&gt;

Then counter-offer by flipping Rockwell and Paul&#039;s spots.  Good enough.

Trent, Hugh, Randall: America&#039;s counting on you.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Would Paul possibly ask to be taken off, given that he would be on the top of the ticket? That might make a difference to him.</i></p>
<p>Then counter-offer by flipping Rockwell and Paul&#8217;s spots.  Good enough.</p>
<p>Trent, Hugh, Randall: America&#8217;s counting on you.</p>
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		<title>By: randallthayes</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-9993</link>
		<dc:creator>randallthayes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 03:16:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-9993</guid>
		<description>langa,

I don&#039;t know if Rockwell would affirmatively consent, but he might refrain from requesting that his name be removed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>langa,</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t know if Rockwell would affirmatively consent, but he might refrain from requesting that his name be removed.</p>
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		<title>By: G.E.</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-9991</link>
		<dc:creator>G.E.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 03:11:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-9991</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t think Lew would take any action to get his name off the ballot. That&#039;s all that&#039;s required.

The question is: Would Paul possibly ask to be taken off, given that he would be on the top of the ticket? That might make a difference to him.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t think Lew would take any action to get his name off the ballot. That&#8217;s all that&#8217;s required.</p>
<p>The question is: Would Paul possibly ask to be taken off, given that he would be on the top of the ticket? That might make a difference to him.</p>
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		<title>By: langa</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-9989</link>
		<dc:creator>langa</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 03:07:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-9989</guid>
		<description>Do you guys think Lew Rockwell would consent to be on the ballot?  He&#039;s pretty much vehemently opposed to the very idea of elections.  I don&#039;t know how running for VP would sit with him.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Do you guys think Lew Rockwell would consent to be on the ballot?  He&#8217;s pretty much vehemently opposed to the very idea of elections.  I don&#8217;t know how running for VP would sit with him.</p>
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		<title>By: randallthayes</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-9976</link>
		<dc:creator>randallthayes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 01:25:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-9976</guid>
		<description>Hugh,

We&#039;ll probably develop a short list of candidates that we all agree are acceptable.

Then, we&#039;ll discuss our way to a consensus on which one is the best choice.

If we can&#039;t reach a consensus less formally, then we might reach it by majority vote.

So far, I agree with Trent that Baldwin, Goldwater, and Rockwell are the most likely choices.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hugh,</p>
<p>We&#8217;ll probably develop a short list of candidates that we all agree are acceptable.</p>
<p>Then, we&#8217;ll discuss our way to a consensus on which one is the best choice.</p>
<p>If we can&#8217;t reach a consensus less formally, then we might reach it by majority vote.</p>
<p>So far, I agree with Trent that Baldwin, Goldwater, and Rockwell are the most likely choices.</p>
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		<title>By: Hugh Jass</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-9967</link>
		<dc:creator>Hugh Jass</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Aug 2008 23:45:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-9967</guid>
		<description>How are you guys going to decide? Are the nine potential electors just going to take a vote to decide who gets to be Paul&#039;s running mate?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How are you guys going to decide? Are the nine potential electors just going to take a vote to decide who gets to be Paul&#8217;s running mate?</p>
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		<title>By: Trent Hill</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-9941</link>
		<dc:creator>Trent Hill</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Aug 2008 19:30:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-9941</guid>
		<description>The group of VPs has basically been narrowed to Barry Goldwater Jr., Chuck Baldwin, and Lew Rockwell.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The group of VPs has basically been narrowed to Barry Goldwater Jr., Chuck Baldwin, and Lew Rockwell.</p>
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		<title>By: Trent Hill</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-9940</link>
		<dc:creator>Trent Hill</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Aug 2008 19:29:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-9940</guid>
		<description>GE,

The point is moot, Jones has been removed from contention. We expect he would allow his name to go on the record.

As for him not being acceptable. The man is a Republican, in a highly-military populated district, and is on CSPAN RIGHT NOW helping Dennis Kucinich bring forth Impeachment articles.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>GE,</p>
<p>The point is moot, Jones has been removed from contention. We expect he would allow his name to go on the record.</p>
<p>As for him not being acceptable. The man is a Republican, in a highly-military populated district, and is on CSPAN RIGHT NOW helping Dennis Kucinich bring forth Impeachment articles.</p>
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		<title>By: sunshinebatman</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-9939</link>
		<dc:creator>sunshinebatman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Aug 2008 18:54:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-9939</guid>
		<description>A Paul/Ventura ticket would be worth moving to Louisiana for.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A Paul/Ventura ticket would be worth moving to Louisiana for.</p>
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		<title>By: Hugh Jass</title>
		<link>http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2008/08/update-paul-will-keep-name-on-ballot-in-virginia/comment-page-2/#comment-9938</link>
		<dc:creator>Hugh Jass</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Aug 2008 18:41:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/?p=1446#comment-9938</guid>
		<description>I concur with Fred&#039;s VP picks. My personal favorite is Rockwell, but I like the other two as well.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I concur with Fred&#8217;s VP picks. My personal favorite is Rockwell, but I like the other two as well.</p>
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