Rhodes Cook, a senior columnist for Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball ’08, takes a detailed look at the role of, and potential impact of, third party candidates in this year’s presidential election. The 850-word piece, which contains several tables of historical data, is worth reading in full. Libertarian Bob Barr, Green Cynthia McKinney, and independent Ralph Nader are mentioned as candidates who could have impact; others such as Chuck Baldwin and Alan Keyes are not mentioned.
Cook says the “third parties cut both ways in 2000,” when Nader and Reform Party nominee Pat Buchanan both received attention. The “question now is whether they will play a significant role this time as they did eight years ago. Or whether the voting this fall will be along the lines of 2004, when there was virtually no demand for third party alternatives since a clear-cut choice between Bush and Democrat John Kerry was available.” He concludes, “Third parties are poised to play a significant role in the 2008 presidential election…if McCain and Obama stay close enough to let them.”
4 responses so far ↓
1 Mike Gillis // Aug 14, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Bush and Kerry a clear cut choice?
I suppose, if you consider Coke and caffeine-free Coke to be have stark differences.
2 Spence // Aug 14, 2008 at 2:35 pm
I think what he meant was Bush or the best chance of getting Bush out, which is of course, asinine even if that’s the way you look at things, but even still, this piece is a no-brainer. I’m predicting that all the third party/independent candidates pull a collective 4% of the vote, thus making the winner of the pop. vote a toss-up. No electoral votes for anyone besides McCain or Obama of course. =]
3 Nexus // Aug 14, 2008 at 3:30 pm
This is a dead link
4 Peter Orvetti // Aug 15, 2008 at 2:59 am
no it ain’t
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