In his blog on the Sandusky Register website, Tom Jackson writes, “A Zogby International poll released Aug. 22 showed Libertarian Bob Barr is drawing support from 8 percent of the Ohio’s voters. (The poll placed Barack Obama at 41 percent and John McCain at 36 percent, Ralph Nader at 1 percent and “Not Sure/Other” at 13 percent.) It’s just one poll, but members of the Ohio Libertarian Party are pleased and hope the poll numbers show they can become a player in state politics. The party’s chairman, Kevin Knedler, told me party members have come up with an answer for people who say voting for Barr will ‘waste’ their vote. If Barr can get 5 percent of the vote on Nov. 4, ‘he will give us ballot access for the first time in the history of this party through the ballot box,’ Knedler said.”
4 responses so far ↓
1 Anti-Corporate // Aug 30, 2008 at 12:27 pm
I hope this poll is accurate with respect to Barr’s support in Ohio. But the Zogby polls are way out of line with every other poll that includes Barr and Nader (as well as those that also include McKinney). If you look at all the polls complied here:
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvoand3s.php
you’ll see that in almost every major poll, Nader has been equal to or higher than Barr. So I really doubt that Barr should be at 8% with Nader at 1% in Ohio.
On the various third party blogs, I saw mention and discussion of the previous Zogby poll. But between the previous Zogby poll and this one, this poll was also released:
http://www.time.com/time/2008/poll_main.pdf
yet I saw no mention or discussion of it on the third party sites. It has Nader at 7%, 6%, 7%, and 8% in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania (respectively). It has Barr at 3%, 5%, X?, and 1% in those states.
Of course both the Barr and Nader campaigns trumpet the polls that have them higher and say nothing about the polls that have them lower. But when you look at all the polls together–see again the Pollster link above–it looks like Nader is ahead of Barr nationally, and by extension, in most states. That one poll would have Nader at 7% and Barr at 1% in Pennsylvania and Zogby at 8% with Nader at 1% in Ohio strongly suggests to me that the Zogby poll is out of whack.
2 Steve LaBianca // Aug 30, 2008 at 2:09 pm
In the more “independent” states, look for Barr to get 2% at best, and 0.4 to 1.0% in partisan states, come election day.
Giving any credibility to any polls at this stage in the election cycle for third party candidates is futile, with the possible exception of providing a basis for dividing by a factor of 4 to 8 to come up with a somewhat realistic vote total on election day.
3 Anti-Corporate // Aug 30, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Whereas the Time/CNN/OR poll has Barr at 5% in Nevada, apparently Zogby has Barr at 10% in Nevada:
http://www.bobbarr2008.com/press/press-releases/103/barr-reaches-11-percent-in-state-poll/
Thus there can only be one conclusion, based on clear logical and mathematical principles. Barr is actually at 15% in Nevada! Eat dust, Nader!
4 donald raymond lake // Aug 31, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Sorry to say, the Z polls have a checkered [if not sorry] trac record. Like Cody Quirk, Eric D and other ‘usual suspects’ —-I do not even read Z blogs any more. Not only are they off, they are ususally WAY OFF. Sorry to say!
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