Angus Reid Global Monitor has released the results of the first general election polling to include Cynthia McKinney as the Green Party nominee. The poll, conducted from July 27th to 29th, projects 46% for Obama, 42% for McCain, 6% for Nader, 3% for Barr, and 1% for McKinney – presuming each of the five candidates appears on the respondent’s state ballot. Without third party contenders, the most recent data indicates Obama at 51%, McCain at 44%, with generic runner-ups Neither and Other coming in at 4% and 1% respectively.
Regards to Lew Rockwell for the link.
What’s up with so many Libertarians on the ballot? Bob Barr, Charles Jay, George Phillies, and Tom Stevens all running for president. Why can’t the party bosses pick just one and put only that one on the ballot in all 50 states? Having different Libertarians on the ballot for the same office is stupid. Are the Libertarian Party bosses stupid or what?
Barr is much higher than 3%, it’s probley more like 6% or 7%.
No. 2-3% in most polls. 6% in a very few.
So even 90% was an underestimate. I thought so. When I managed phone polling at the Ron Paul office, I’d give volunteers a sheet of 50 names and they’d be lucky to get one or two responses. A lot of them were not-at-home though.
Really? I’ll admit I didn’t know it was that high.
When I was doing cold calls I’d usually dial about 1200 numbers in a 7 hour shift. I was lucky to get about 20-30 people a day that could be bothered to even talk to me. Refused is useless. You can’t weight it, you can’t break it, all it tells you is how much of a pain in the ass life is for the pollster’s employees, and no analyst worth his calculator would waste a half-second on it.
If all of the “refuses” were counted as “other” or “refused”, they would account for upwards of 50% (maybe as high as 90%). Have you ever done any phone polling?
Well, they try and minimize that by calling people at random. Some polls have “Refuse” as an option, which I think is very good practice, as it records all the people who hung up on the pollsters or simply declined to give any sort of answer.
I suspect the third-party polling vs. actual vote differentials have to do a lot with the self-selecting nature of poll respondents. Pollsters can statistically adjust all they want, but the fact of the matter is that the type of people who are third-party voters are about 10,000 times more likely to participate in a poll than the casual, Dem/Repub voter.
Oh Steve, you are so close to the truth……
It’s okay, Steve. I get them mixed up sometimes, too. 🙂
“Rems” . . . I mean “Dems”.
Mike Gillis // Aug 6, 2008 at 2:28 pm
It’s my prediction that the only candidates that have any shot at breaking the 1% threshold are Nader and Barr.
My “prediction”, for some time has been for Barr to get somewhere between 800,000 and 1,200,000 votes. The upper limit of my prediction would probably be about 1% or ever so slightly more.
In order for Barr to get anywhere near 2,000,000 votes, he would have to be “polling” in major polls at about 3% to 4 % in mid to late October. Typically, unless the contest is a major blowout, the major candidates are perceived to be in a very close race, so most “conservatives” and “liberals” go back home to their Rems and GOP.
Michael Badnarik, in a commissioned poll with Rasmussen was polling at 5% in New Mexico, then ended up with about 0.7% in that state.
It’s my prediction that the only candidates that have any shot at breaking the 1% threshold are Nader and Barr.
I could very realistically see them in the 1-2% range this year. I just can’t see Baldwin or McKinney breaking past 250,000 votes.
Eternaverse // Aug 5, 2008 at 11:29 pm
Barr is much higher than 3%, it’s probley more like 6% or 7%.
Yeah, we’ll see when the polls come out in late October . . . or when the final vote is reported. Barr will be extremely fortunate to “poll” at 2%.
I think the Keyes/Baldwin CA dispute should be settled with a chalk circle and a pair of knives.
Preferably with the Captain Kirk fight music playing.
How well Baldwin does nationally will depend on whether he makes it onto the California ballot.
Last I heard, the AIP’s Keyes faction has control of the ballot, but the courts may yet turn Keyes’s ballot spot over to Baldwin.
Does anyone have more recent info on the California AIP in-fighting?
This may very well be the year that the non-majors have the strength can keep the majors from getting a majority if these numbers can hold up.
Getting 1% would be a big victory for McKinney, hopefully we can get Baldwin into that threshold as well or at least make him the most popular vote getter in the CP’s history.
A rising tide lifts all ships – this is good news.
^What inspired that?
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Barr’s polling numbers run from 2% to 7%, depending on the poll. Either public opinion on Barr sways by about 5% from week-to-week, or more likely we’re simply seeing the results of the margin of error.
According to the Angus Reid results, the margin of error is 3.5%. They don’t publish the confidence interval used, but the standard is 95%. So, in truth, Angus Reid is saying that they are 95% sure that Bob Barr’s true level of support is between 0% and 6.5%. (This also means there is a 5% chance that Barr’s true level of support is greater than 6.5%; since it can’t be below 0%.)
Thus, the poll does not disprove that Barr could actually be at 6% support nationally. Eternaverse may, or may not, be correct in his(/her?) assertion.
Now, given the results of other polls, I’d personally reckon Barr’s true level of support (or I should say ‘professed support’; people are always more likely to tell a pollster they’ll vote third party than they actually are) is about 4 or 5%.
Considering the Media blackout surrounding McKinney/Clemente, I guess we shouldn’t be too disappointed with 1%. If she’s still pegged at 1% in September, we gotta worry.
Eternaverse,
…do YOU run a national polling firm?
Barr is much higher than 3%, it’s probley more like 6% or 7%.
Whats the difference between “Neither” and “Other” in that poll?
Good for McKinney! 1% would be great!