One has to factor in the district being 65%ish African-American, and Obama the Dem nominee when it comes to turnout. Idk if the Dem write-in is African-American though.

As for this race, i’d imagine the electorate might break down like this

10-15% would vote Green (a Green lost 82/18 in a one-on-one statewide race in 2006), maybe a few more under the Jenness precedent (where people voted for SWP electors because they were the only thing on the page and they didn’t know better)

A large percentage will skip the race.

But there’s a write-in candidate from the Dems.

So this race could play out with the Dems getting people to write in their candidate. (Idk if stickers are allowed)

Has the deadline for write-ins passed? if not, then Dobbins could run as a write-in and win

The first state legislator, Audie Bock, was elected in California, quit the party, once elected, to be a Democrat and was beaten the next time she ran, this time as a Democrat. So, she won as a Green and lost as a Democrat.

The shining star is John Eder. Elected twice to the Maine legislature, Eder was terrific. He sought and won staff for the Green Party at the state legislature, pointing out that the Democratic and Republican caucus had staff, and even if he *was* the Green Caucus, the caucus was nonetheless entitled to staff. He lost in the last election in a close race where both corporate parties were glad to see him go.

No, I am not going to assume anything. In fact I intend to learn a bit more about Carroll and if all checks out well I hope to help raise some cash for his campaign. The Democrats are much less inclined to go up against a man who is on the ballot if he’s also got a few thousand dollars to spend.

We did elect a partisan Green, barely, in Michigan under a similar situation. She then got trounced four years later.