From this week’s Evans-Novak Political Report:
The key question on the libertarian side of the ledger will be the strength of former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr, the Libertarian nominee. … Barr sees his strongest region being the Mountain West, where Nevada and Colorado sit on the edge of the McCain-Obama battle. Barr could tip those states in Obama’s direction if he gets just 2 percent. … The fear of Barr swinging his home state Georgia to the Obama column is overblown.
Actually, Nevada and Colorado could swing on less than 2%. They’re just that close now.
A strong libertarian campaign — especially one with a Nevadan on the ticket — focusing on two issues that have particularly vexed Bob Barr could easily make the difference.
Same-sex marriage: Both states have incorporated marriage apartheid into their constitutions in the 21st century (Nevada with 2002’s Question 2 and Colorado with 2006’s Amendment 43). However, significant portions of Nevadans (33%) and Coloradoans (44%) opposed those measures.
Marijuana, medical and otherwise: Both states allow medical marijuana. Significant portions of Nevadans (44%%) and Coloradoans (40%) voted for broader legalization in 2006.
If Barr is interested in seizing the balance of power in Colorado and Nevada, he might do well to come out strong on these issues — and ditch the Dixiecrat-style “states rights” reservations he’s previously attached to them. What works in “the Solid South” doesn’t necessarily work out west.
It’s a safe bet that at least 2% of Colorado and Nevada voters:
a) support marriage equality;
b) support cannabis legalization;
c) consider both issues important; and
d) fit into the “true conservative” demographic that Barr (like Ron Paul before him) has geared his to appeal to so far.
I have to disagree with Novak and Carney on Georgia. Although most polls have shown McCain well ahead in that state, the latest InsiderAdvantage/PollPosition poll [PDF] has them in a virtual dead heat … with Barr’s share covering the spread ten times over!
That poll may be an outlier or it may indicate the start of a lasting trend, but let’s be honest here: The outcome in Georgia probably hinges on black voter turnout, and Barr has a tough row to hoe there. The most interesting crosstab on the poll above is that Barr’s support among black voters (Georgia’s population is 30% African-American) is statistically insignificant (it registers as 0.0% in the poll).
I’m not sure he can do anything about that … but the things he might do are the right things to do anyway (apologize for consorting with, and repudiate, the white separatist “Council of Conservative Citizens,” concentrate on the drug war, throw the “states rights” nonsense overboard, etc.).
My bet is that Georgia’s going to be a close state this time. It will probably come down to how well the Democrats do their job of getting African-American voters to the polls for Obama … and quite possibly to whether or not Barr can hold his ground and maybe even take some more ground between now and November.
- Cross-posted at KN@PPSTER
16 responses so far ↓
1 Mike Theodore // Jun 20, 2008 at 4:50 pm
I’m out in Colorado for the next 2 months. Deputy Campaign Manager Shane Cory (shudder) says there will be a campaign store early next week. I’ll throw some signs around.
2 Casey Bowman // Jun 20, 2008 at 5:04 pm
Do read “The Meaning of Is” (2004) where Bob Barr repudiates directly and clearly the CCC (see pp. 143-144, 183-184). He writes, “I had been invited by the top Republican official in South Carolina to speak on impeachment to a particular group, so we made the reasonable assumption based on his recommendation that the group was legitimate. … Needless to say, that was one meeting I left as quickly as possible….”
3 Ross Levin // Jun 20, 2008 at 6:18 pm
Mike – did you really go seamlessly from Gravel to Barr?
4 Mike Theodore // Jun 20, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Where else do I roam into the night, Ross? I’m not that radical (as some people think I am), and I’m getting ready for Jingo’s run in 2012. But I’m a Libertarian, and I’ll work to represent our principles.
VOTE GATTIES!
5 Mike Theodore // Jun 20, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Ross,
Do you remember VTV from that chatroom? Do you know where that radio channel is, I can’t find it anywhere.
6 Ross Levin // Jun 20, 2008 at 8:31 pm
I’m focusing more on local candidates, Mike.
He’s at http://www.revolutionbroadcasting.com but his show is on a hiatus. You can find him at http://www.blogtalkradio.com but I’m not sure where to find him there. If you come back to the chatroom, you can ask him. He’s there a lot.
He’s running for Congress now, FYI.
7 Mike Theodore // Jun 20, 2008 at 9:14 pm
I went in today in a mad rush to find you. We’re all focusing on local candidates now, since theres not much anyone can do for Barr (even if you like him). But back in the chatroom he said he was interested to do an interview with Dr. Mary Zennett, whose book I’m marketing. I just got her to read the health section of Citizen Power, and she says he’s right on. I’ll email him anyway, maybe he’s interested. It’s just one of many interviews I’m trying to pull out of the hole.
8 Ross Levin // Jun 20, 2008 at 9:27 pm
Mike, were you “mib-e0wxd1″?
VTV (Neil) is in the chat a lot. He’s in the chat at http://www.revolutionbroadcasting.com a lot, too. Either one will work.
9 Mike Theodore // Jun 20, 2008 at 9:46 pm
Of course, I was in a mad rush before going to the store to get yum yums! Is his show called VTV?
meh, I’ll find him in the chat somewhere. I just sent an email to the one show on Revolution Broadcasting that had an email address.
You have any ideas of any other online Gravel/Paul radio? Just off the top of your head, don’t want to hassle you.
10 Ross Levin // Jun 21, 2008 at 1:05 am
I think it’s called V Radio.
You know, Gravel and Paul might do a speaking tour together. A series of townhall meetings. Gravel said he was up for it, but Paul might not want to do it. We’ve got to pressure them into it!
11 Mike Theodore // Jun 21, 2008 at 1:19 am
I just got a few spots on Revolution Broadcasting Tuesday. Ears open for Dr. Zennett!
12 Jason_Gatties // Jun 21, 2008 at 11:10 am
I need to figure out an online volunteer position for Mike Theodore with my campaign. I may drop you an email buddy. I’m meeting with my core people (aka, people who live around here volunteering) Monday. Perhaps we can figure out a position for you if you are interested.
13 Mike Theodore // Jun 21, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Ya, I am. I’m not sure what I can do online, especially with minimum experience with electronic stuff and what not.
14 LPiberty // Jun 22, 2008 at 11:25 am
Just now catching up on some reports.
Based on a recent GA poll, does anyone think that the outcome there could be a surprise?
Which candidates would be on the ballot in GA?
http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/PollPosition%20Poll%201.pdf
15 Steve Perkins // Jun 22, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Interesting that in this Georgia poll, 40% of Barr’s support comes from Democrats.
16 kiddleddee // Jun 24, 2008 at 11:47 am
KN@PPSTER writes:
‘The most interesting crosstab on the poll above is that Barr’s support among black voters (Georgia’s population is 30% African-American) is statistically insignificant (it registers as 0.0% in the poll).’
The crosstab I find most interesting is the one for “Independent” voters. That one is also statistically insignificant; it also registers as 0.0% in the poll.
Noone really expects Barr to make any headway in the African-American community; to the extent that he even addresses the issues which most directly affect that communtiy, he is either wishy-washy, timid, duplicitous or worse. His continued embrace of the war on drugs and his advocacy of a national sales tax, as well as the Genarlow Wilson case (widely seen as a “racial” case), are good examples.
However, his inability to make any splash at all, in his home state, among “Independent” voters – which would apparently include at least some libertarians since only 3 choices (Dem, Rep, Ind) were available – is pretty disturbing (though not at all surprising!)
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